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Home My WebLink AboutItem No. 2 - Trip Generation Memorandum Kittelson & Associates, Inc. TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM February 11, 2025 Project# 31138 To: City of Lake Elsinore 130 S Main Street Lake Elsinore, CA 92530 From: Kittelson & Associates, Inc RE: Dutch Bros at Central Avenue and Cambern Avenue – Trip Generation Memorandum This technical memorandum summarizes the trip generation estimates for the proposed Dutch Bros coffee shop to be located at the southeast corner of Central Avenue and Cambern Avenue in Lake Elsinore, California (“project”). These estimates are then compared against the overall development’s approved trip generation to help the City determine whether supplemental traffic analyses are required. PROJECT CONTEXT The project site would consist of a 950-sf retail structure, 11 proposed vehicle parking stalls including one ADA stall and four EV capable parking stalls, and a vehicle drive-through served by a single service window. The drive-through has two lanes that converge at the service window and has been designed to accommodate a queue of 16 vehicles at one time. The proposed coffee shop is part of a larger commercial plaza development which will be constructed in two phases. The project site will be developed as part of phase 2 which is anticipated to start construction in 2025. A more detailed site plan of the Dutch Bros development is provided in Appendix A. PROJECT TRIP GENERATION Trip generation for the Dutch Bros project uses a combination of the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation Manual 11th Edition and historical drive-through transaction data of four (4) existing similar Dutch Bros. The similar Dutch Bros selected based on market service, layout, and traffic conditions are at the following locations: ◼ 32690 Yucaipa Blvd, Yucaipa, CA 92399 ◼ 81-776 Highway 111, Indio, CA 92201 ◼ 44175 Jefferson St, La Quinta, CA 92253 ◼ 2560 E Palmdale Blvd, Palmdale, CA 93550 These four locations were chosen because of their similar size and layout to the project (i.e. approximately 950 square feet, two drive-through lanes, and no indoor seating), market competition (i.e. multiple nearby coffee shops and/or Dutch Bros), as well as the suburban-urban traffic context. \750 The City Drive, Suite 410 Orange, CA 92868 P 714.468.1997 February 11, 2025 Queuing Technical Memorandum Project trip generation Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Page 2 The ITE Trip Generation Manual was used to develop the proportional traffic inflow and outflow rates experienced during weekday morning (AM) and afternoon (PM) peak hours and pass -by rate assumptions. The hourly average historical Dutch Bros transaction data between April 1, 2023 and March 31, 2024 were used to approximate the total inbound and outbound trips throughout an average weekday and determine the weekday AM and PM peak hours. The hourly historical transaction data for each location is provided in Appendix B. Figure 1 visualizes the average historical transaction data across the similar Dutch Bros stores mentioned prior. As shown in the figure, the average peak number of transactions between the stores during the AM network peak period between 7:00 – 9:00 AM is 58, and the average during the PM network peak period between 4:00 – 6:00 PM is 43 transactions. It was assumed that each transaction represents one vehicle, although multiple transactions could occur within one vehicle. Figure 1: Dutch Bros Daily Drive-Through Transactions Averaged Across All Locations SOURCE: DUTCH BROS (2024) Internal capture and pass-by trips are important to capture for the proposed coffee shop. Internal capture trips are significant since their incorporation recognizes trips between different land uses within the same development (such as residential, commercial, and recreational areas) which may not contribute to external road traffic. Internal capture rates that were conservative and consistent with trip generation estimates from the overall development were applied. A pass-by trip reduction of 75% for the AM Peak Hour, PM Peak Hour, and daily traffic was applied, which is the average of the pass -by trip rates from ITE Trip Generation Manual for Land Use 934: Fast-Food Restaurant with Drive-Through Window and Land Use 938: Coffee/Donut Shop with Drive-Through Window and No Indoor Seating. This pass-by trip rate is consistent with previous traffic studies conducted for Dutch Bros in Lake Elsinore. The site anticipates having seven to nine employees on site throughout the day. At peak times, four of the employees will be outside with one controlling traffic. These employees are on a shift schedule assumed Drive Thro gh TransactionsHo r o Da ee da D tch ros Transaction Data February 11, 2025 Queuing Technical Memorandum alignment with Overall Development plans Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Page 3 to commute to the site outside of typical AM and PM peak hours so they are not represented in the peak hour but are represented in the daily calculations. Table 1 presents the inbound/outbound patterns used in the analysis and Table 2 presents the resulting trip generation estimates. Table 1: Weekday Inbound and Outbound Rates for Trip Generation Land Use Unit AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Daily In Out In Out In Out Coffee/Donut Shop with Drive-Through Window and No Indoor Seating 1000 SF 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% SOURCE: INSTITUTE OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERS TRIP GENERATION MANUAL, 11TH EDITION. Table 2: Weekday Project Trip Generation Estimates Trip Type AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Daily In Out Total In Out Total In Out Total Primary Trips 7 12 19 8 6 14 114 114 228 Internal Capture1 28 8 36 12 18 30 246 245 491 Pass-By Trips2 23 38 61 23 19 42 342 343 685 Total Trips3 58 58 116 43 43 86 702 702 1,404 Note: 1 Internal capture rates consistent with the overall development trip generation estimates were utilized. 2 A pass-by trip rate of 75% for AM Peak Hour, PM Peak Hour and Daily Traffic. 3 Total inbound/outbound trip generation estimates are the average hourly historical transaction data across similar Dutch Bros sites. SOURCE: DUTCH BROS (2024), COMPILED BY KITTELSON & ASSOCIATES, INC (2025) ALIGNMENT WITH OVERALL DEVELOPMENT PLANS This section eval ates the proposed co ee shop’s alignment with the overall development’s trip generation for the lot as provided in the approved corresponding traffic study. The overall development anticipated and planned for two quick service restaurants that combine up to 3,871-sf. Table 3 summarizes the AM Peak Hour, PM Peak Hour, and Daily trip generation estimates for Dutch Bros and the approved land use. The approved traffic study trip generation summary table has been provided in Appendix C. As demonstrated from the table, the proposed coffee shop will remain within the approved trip generation during the AM and PM peak hours. The daily trip generation is expected to increase by 29 vehicles per day. The daily traffic has less effect on operations of the adjacent roadway network compared to peak hours, and 29 trips (averaging approximately 2 vehicles per operating hour) is considered to have February 11, 2025 Queuing Technical Memorandum alignment with Overall Development plans Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Page 4 negligible impacts on traffic operations but the overall development could look for ways to offset this difference. Table 3: Overall Development Trip Generation Land Use Unit AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Daily In Out Total In Out Total Total Approved Trip Generation Fast-Food Restaurant with Drive-Through Window 3,871 SF 79 76 155 66 61 127 1,824 Internal Capture1 (38) (11) (49) (19) (25) (44) (632) Pass-By (49% AM; 50% PM/Daily) (20) (20) (40) (18) (18) (36) (596) Subtotal 21 45 66 29 18 47 596 Proposed Trip Generation Phase 1: Pollo Campero (Confirmed by Client) 2,580 SF 53 51 104 44 40 84 1,215 Internal Capture1 (25) (7) (32) (13) (16) (29) (421) Pass-By (49% AM; 50% PM/Daily) (14) (22) (36) (16) (12) (28) (397) Subtotal 14 22 36 15 12 27 397 Phase 2: Dutch Bros Coffee Shop 950 SF 58 58 116 43 43 86 1,404 Internal Capture1 (28) (8) (36) (12) (18) (30) (246) Pass-By (75% AM/PM/Daily)2 (23) (38) (61) (23) (19) (42) (685) Subtotal 7 12 19 8 6 14 228 Net Difference (Approved – Proposed) 341 SF 0 11 11 6 0 6 (29) Note: 1 Internal capture rates are consistent with the overall development trip generation estimates. 2 Pass-by trip rates are consistent with previous traffic studies for Dutch Bros in Lake Elsinore. SOURCE: URBAN CROSSROADS (2022); KITTELSON & ASSOCIATES, INC (2025) APPENDIX APreliminary Site Plan DUTCH BROS COFFEE 980 SQ. FT.28282815GROCERY -43,050 SF15' ROW15' SETBACKDUTCH BROS COFFEE 950 SQ. FT.CAMBERN AVENUEWWWWWWWOH W OH W OH W ACCESS VICINITY MAPSITE LOCAT ION LEGENDPROJECT DATASCALE: 1"=20'PRELIMINARY NOT FOR CONSTRUCTION““”“”” 2019 DBFranchising USA, LLC Dial 811Callbefore you dig.below.Know what'sCONSTRUCTION NOTES:ENGINEERSURVEYOROWNERDEVELOPERPHONEREPRESENTATIVESUTILITY REPRESENTATIVESUTILITYLEGAL DESCRIPTION APPENDIX BDutch Bros Historical Transaction Data DUTCH BROS TRANSACTION DATA (APRIL 1, 2023 THROUGH MARCH 31, 2024)Average of Guests (Order)Column LabelsLAXPalm Springs - SoCal DesertYucaipaIndioLa QuintaPalmdaleAM Peak HourRow LabelsCA4501CA3702CA3703CA3903In Out Total In Out Total In Out Total01.01.01.058 58 116 43 43 86 702 702 1,40411.01.0* took the hourly average transactions across the similar site locations during the associated peak period21.01.0** added 32 trips to the Daily Trip Generation Estimates to account for commuting worker traffic31.01.041.11.11.21.11.2515.715.116.914.915.6629.029.133.222.828.5748.346.662.745.150.7851.356.373.149.957.7947.247.161.147.250.71049.142.055.046.348.11150.141.552.348.548.11249.741.248.850.447.51345.938.349.349.845.81449.139.548.347.646.11554.640.250.247.548.21643.533.546.546.242.41739.832.838.540.537.91834.729.831.038.033.41930.925.426.532.828.92028.824.422.929.226.32123.420.919.123.521.72212.317.711.510.614.6233.01.32.11.21.4AVG ACROSS ALL LOCATIONSWeekdayPM Peak Hour Daily58430102030405060700 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23Drive-Through TransactionsHour of DayWeekday Dutch Bros Transaction Data APPENDIX COverall Development Trip Generation Central & Cambern Retail Traffic Analysis 13782-06 TA Report REV2 44 TABLE 4-1: PROJECT TRIP GENERATION SUMMARY As shown in Table 4-1, the proposed Project is anticipated to generate a total of 4,818 trip-ends per day with 316 AM peak hour trips and 449 PM peak hour trips. ITE Weekday Land Use 1 Code Units2 In Out Total In Out Total Daily Supermarket 850 TSF 2.29 1.53 3.82 4.71 4.53 9.24 106.78 Fast-Food Restaurant with Drive-Through Window 934 TSF 20.50 19.69 40.19 16.99 15.68 32.67 470.95 Automated Car Wash3 948 TUN N/A N/A N/A 38.75 38.75 77.50 775.00 Super Convenience Market/Gas Station 960 VFP 14.04 14.04 28.08 11.48 11.48 22.96 230.52 Land Use 1 Quantity Units2 In Out Total In Out Total Daily Phase 1 Super Convenience Market/Gas Station 16 VFP 225 225 450 184 184 368 3,688 Internal Capture: -8 -29 -37 -19 -15 -34 -342 Pass-By (76% AM/PM/Daily):-149 -149 -298 -125 -125 -250 -2,804 Retail Subtotal:68 47 115 40 44 84 542 Fast-Food Restaurant with Drive-Through Window 3.000 TSF 61 59 120 51 47 98 1,414 Internal Capture: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pass-By (49% AM; 50% PM/Daily): -30 -30 -60 -24 -24 -48 -708 Restaurant Subtotal:31 29 60 27 23 50 706 Automated Car Wash Tunnel 1 TUN 0 0 0 39 39 78 776 Phase 1 Total:99 76 175 106 106 212 2,024 Project Buildout Supermarket 43.050 TSF 99 66 165 203 195 398 4,598 Internal Capture: -6 -21 -27 -14 -11 -24 -284 Pass-By (36% PM/Daily):0 0 0 -68 -68 -136 -1,554 Super Convenience Market/Gas Station 16 VFP 225 225 450 184 184 368 3,688 Internal Capture: -5 -17 -22 -11 -8 -20 -198 Pass-By (76% AM/PM/Daily):-158 -158 -316 -131 -131 -262 -2,804 Fast-Food Restaurant with Drive-Through Window 3.871 TSF 79 76 155 66 61 127 1,824 Internal Capture: -38 -11 -49 -19 -25 -44 -632 Pass-By (49% AM; 50% PM/Daily): -20 -20 -40 -18 -18 -36 -596 Automated Car Wash Tunnel 1 TUN 0 0 0 39 39 78 776 Project Buildout Subtotal:176 140 316 231 218 449 4,818 1 Trip Generation Source: Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE), Trip Generation Manual, Tenth Edition (2017). 2 DU = Dwelling Units; TSF = thousand square feet; TUN = Tunnels VFP = Vehicle Fueling Position 3 Daily rate is not readily available in the ITE Trip Generation Manual, Tenth Edition (2017). As such, the daily rate is assumed to be 10 times the PM peak hour rate. AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour