HomeMy WebLinkAboutItem No. 09 - Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis and Findings9)Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis and Findings
Receive and File the Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis Report and Adopt the Report’s
Findings that the City of Lake Elsinore is oversaturated with carwash businesses.
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REPORT TO CITY COUNCIL
To:Honorable Mayor and Members of the City Council
From:Jason Simpson, City Manager
Prepared by:Damaris Abraham, Community Development Director
Date:October 8, 2024
Subject:Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis and Findings
Recommendation
Receive and File the Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis Report and Adopt the Report’s
Findings that the City of Lake Elsinore is oversaturated with carwash businesses.
Background
At the May 14, 2024 City Council meeting, Council Member Magee requested that staff prepare
a carwash saturation study detailing the number and the location of existing operating carwashes,
approved carwashes that are yet to be constructed (including their status), and any proposed
applications or pre-applications that are in process. The purpose of the requested study is to give
City staff and the City Council a tool when reviewing entitlement applications for carwashes. The
City staff contracted with The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) to better understand the current
market and short and long-term demands.
Discussion
Findings from the analysis provides a citywide framework for anticipating the need for new
carwash businesses over the next 11 years (through 2035). The analysis considers the existing
inventory of carwashes in Lake Elsinore and the larger South Riverside County (SRC) market
area for comparison, and also quantified carwash projects currently planned/approved, or under
construction in the market area. Tables 1 and 2 below depict existing and known carwashes within
Lake Elsinore and the SRC region.
Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis and Findings
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Table 1: Carwashes within Lake Elsinore and surrounding region
Table 2: Existing and known planned carwashes by type within Lake Elsinore and SRC region
Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis and Findings
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As of 2024, the City has 9 existing and 9 potential (under construction, entitled, or application in
process) carwash businesses. Based on the population and future population demand analysis,
the Report finds a total demand for 12 carwashes in 2030 and 13 carwashes in 2035. Based on
the demand analysis and assuming the potential businesses are built, the Report finds that the
City is oversaturated by 6 carwashes through 2030 and by 5 carwashes through 2035.
Table 3: Estimates of current and future carwash demand
In addition to the carwash supply/demand analysis, the analysis also evaluated potential demand
for new convenience markets/gas stations through 2035, finding these uses are also oversupplied
in the City.
Fiscal Impact
No direct additional fiscal impact.
Attachments
Attachment 1 – TNDG Carwash Market Analysis dated 09.13.2024
Attachment 2 – Lake Elsinore and Surrounding Cities Car Wash Analysis
Attachment 3 – Listing of Carwash Facilities by Application Status - August 30, 2024
Community Development
LAKE ELSINORE CARWASH MARKET ANALYSIS
Prepared for:
City of Lake Elsinore
September 13, 2024
PREPARED BY:
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
YORBA LINDA, CA• www.natelsondale.com
O: 714.692.9596 • F: 714.692.9597
Table of Contents
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 1
2. Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ 2
Carwash demand .................................................................................................................................... 2
Convenience market (gas station) demand ............................................................................................ 3
3. Carwash Analysis, Data, and Findings..................................................................................................... 5
In-commuting workers ......................................................................................................................... 13
Vehicles per household ........................................................................................................................ 13
Trends in higher-density housing ......................................................................................................... 14
The U.S. carwash industry .................................................................................................................... 16
4. Convenience Market Analysis, Data, and Findings ............................................................................... 17
Photo Credits: Zulfahmi Khani on Unsplash
Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis
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1. Introduction
This report evaluates potential market demand for the development of new carwash facilities in the City of
Lake Elsinore. The analysis is not intended to assess the feasibility of specific proposed project(s), but provides
a citywide framework for anticipating the need for new carwash businesses over the next 11 years (through
2035).
The analysis considers the existing inventory of carwashes in Lake Elsinore and the larger South Riverside
County (SRC) market area. The study also quantifies carwash projects that are currently planned or under
construction in the market area. Existing carwashes were generally identified by aerial photography and other
databases, and planned carwashes by reviewing development data maintained by the various municipalities in
the evaluated SRC market area.
By evaluating the existing and potential concentrations of carwash facilities in the larger market area (with
these concentrations expressed in terms of the number of households per carwash), the study establishes a
“standard” demand factor that is applied to the number of households in Lake Elsinore (in order to quantify
potential market support for new carwash facilities in the City, now and in the future).
In addition to the carwash supply/demand analysis, the report also evaluates potential demand for new
convenience markets in the City through 2035. For forecasting purposes, it is assumed that all new convenience
markets would be associated with gas stations.
The remainder of the report is organized in the following chapters:
• Chapter 2 provides an Executive Summary of the study’s major findings regarding future demand for
carwashes and convenience markets in Lake Elsinore;
• Chapter 3 provides the detailed analysis of carwash supply/demand conditions; and
• Chapter 4 provides the detailed analysis of convenience market supply/demand conditions.
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2. Executive Summary
Carwash demand
Based on the demand analysis described below, TNDG estimates that Lake Elsinore is currently under
supplied by 2 carwashes (compared to benchmarks derived for the larger South Riverside County market
area). That is, as of 2024 Lake Elsinore could support 2 new carwashes over and above the existing inventory.
Demand for new carwashes is projected to grow (on a cumulative basis) to 3 carwashes by 2030 and 4
carwashes by 2035. There are currently 9 potential (planned or under construction) carwash projects in Lake
Elsinore. If all of these projects were built by 2035 (which is unlikely based on projected demand), the City
would be overbuilt by 5 carwashes in 2035.
Each of the geographic areas referenced in this report (i.e., the City of Lake Elsinore and the larger SRC market
area) has strong growth expectations, according to the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG),
for both households and employment. The household growth rate in Lake Elsinore, however, is higher than the
corresponding rates for the overall SRC region. According to these projections, Lake Elsinore would have over
4,000 additional households and 3,000 additional workers by 2035 (of which about 2,500 would be in-
commuters assuming current patterns hold).
Using the common market-demand indicator of households-per-carwash, Lake Elsinore – in comparison to the
SRC region – currently has a slightly higher ratio of households to carwashes (i.e., fewer carwashes per
household than the overall region). Given the number of planned carwashes identified as pending within the
two areas, along with the projected growth of households, the ratios of households to carwashes within Lake
Elsinore would be less than the SRC region by 2030. These conditions are summarized in the following two
tables, which show 1) projected household and carwash growth in Lake Elsinore and the SRC region, and 2)
demand for carwashes based on this growth and the ratios of households to carwashes by 2030 (on the
assumption that planned units are operational by that time).
ESTIMATES OF CURRENT AND FUTURE CARWASHES WITH SCAG HOUSEHOLD AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
WITHIN LAKE ELSINORE AND SRC REGION
Variable Lake Elsinore SRC Region
Carwashes by Area
Existing carwashes 9 83
Planned/under-construction Carwashes 9 27
Total existing plus planned/under construction 18 110
Households
Households 2024 21,586 198,019
Households per carwash (as of 2024) 2,398 2,386
Households 2030 23,993 216,914
Households per carwash (By 2030), with supply equal to currently
known existing carwashes plus those planned/under construction 1,333 1,972
Source: TNDG.
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ESTIMATES OF CURRENT AND FUTURE CARWASH DEMAND
Year Demand for TOTAL carwashes, applying regional ratio of
households per carwash as of 2030, compared to supply
Lake
Elsinore
SRC
Region
2024 Total demand as of 2024 10.9 100.4
Less number of carwashes, 2024 (9.0) (83.0)
Net demand shortfall 1.9 17.4
2030 Total demand as of 2030 12.2 110.0
Less carwash supply under the assumption that 2030 supply is
equal to currently known existing plus planned/under constr. (18.0) (110.0)
Net demand shortfall -5.8 0.0
2035 Total demand as of 2035 13.2 118.0
Additional new-carwash capacity beyond 2030 assumed supply (4.8) 8.0
Source: TNDG.
Convenience market (gas station) demand
Compared to regional (south Riverside County) benchmarks, Lake Elsinore currently is currently
“oversupplied” with gas stations/convenience markets. Based on the regional standard of approximately one
gas station/convenience market per 1,800 households, Lake Elsinore’s resident “need” is estimated at
approximately 12 gas stations/convenience markets. The actual number of existing gas stations/convenience
markets is 16, suggesting that the City has 4 more gas stations/convenience markets than it should
theoretically be able to support. Despite this theoretical “oversupply,” data from the California Department
of Tax and Fee Administration indicate that the City’s existing gas stations are performing strongly (average
annual taxable sales in 2023 of $7.6 million per station, compared to the countywide average of $7.0 million
per station).
Given the strong sales performance of the City’s existing facilities, it is appropriate to consider a demand
standard for Lake Elsinore that is more aggressive than the regional benchmark, reflecting the fact that
visitors generate significant demand for convenience stores and gas stations, beyond what would be
required for the City’s resident population. As such, an alternative demand forecast is provided which
assumes that the City’s current households-per-facility ratio represents market equilibrium for Lake Elsinore
(even though it would suggest oversaturation based on regional standards). Moreover, to account for the
potential growth of visitor spending, TNDG has applied a 50% increase to the future demand projections.
Under this alternative forecast, Lake Elsinore could support approximately 5 new convenience markets (over
and above the existing inventory) by 2035. In comparison, there are currently 7 planned convenience market
(gas station) projects in the City, suggesting that the number of planned projects exceeds foreseeable
demand.
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ESTIMATES OF CURRENT AND FUTURE CONVENIENCE MARKETS WITH SCAG HOUSEHOLD AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
WITHIN LAKE ELSINORE AND SRC REGION (CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO)
Variable Lake Elsinore SRC Region
Convenience Markets by Area
Existing convenience markets 16 103
Planned/under-construction convenience markets 7 16
Total existing plus planned/under construction 23 119
Households
Households 2024 21,586 198,019
Households per convenience market (as of 2024) 1,043 1,823
Households 2030 23,993 216,914
Households per convenience market (By 2030), with supply equal to currently
known existing convenience markets plus those planned/under construction 1,043 1,823
Source: TNDG.
ESTIMATES OF CURRENT AND FUTURE CONVENIENCE MARKET DEMAND (CONSERVATIVE SCNENARIO)
Year Demand for TOTAL convenience markets, applying regional ratio of
households per convenience market as of 2030, compared to supply
Lake
Elsinore
SRC
Region
2024 Total demand as of 2024 11.8 108.6
Less number of convenience markets, 2024 (16.0) (103.0)
Net demand shortfall -4.2 5.6
2030 Total demand as of 2030 13.2 119.0
Less convenience market supply under the assumption that 2030 supply is
equal to currently known existing plus planned/under construction (23.0) (119.0)
Net demand shortfall -9.8 0.0
2035 Total demand as of 2035 14.3 127.6
Additional new-convenience market capacity beyond 2030 assumed supply (8.7) 8.6
Source: TNDG.
ESTIMATES OF CURRENT AND FUTURE CONVENIENCE MARKET DEMAND (AGGRESSIVE ALTERNATIVE SCNENARIO)
Year Alternative calculation to account for visitor demand in Lake Elsinore @ 50%
of resident demand
Lake
Elsinore
SRC
Region
2030 Total demand as of 2030 (adjusted for visitor demand) 19.7 N/A
Under the assumption that 2030 convenience market supply is equal to
currently known existing plus planned/under constr. facilities (23.0) N/A
Net demand shortfall -3.3 N/A
2035 Total demand as of 2035 21.4 N/A
Additional new-convenience market capacity beyond 2030 assumed supply (1.6) N/A
Source: TNDG.
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3. Carwash Analysis, Data, and Findings
The analysis considers multiple ways of assessing demand for carwash establishments in Lake Elsinore and the
surrounding area, beginning with defining/determining the following:
• The distribution of existing and known planned carwashes within Lake Elsinore.
• The number of households within Lake Elsinore.
• The number of workers within Lake Elsinore, adjusting for those who also live in that area.
• The larger surrounding reference area region of South Riverside County (SRC), combining data on
existing/planned carwashes and the number of households and jobs in this larger reference area, to
establish the relationship between households and carwash facilities (as a primary metric of future
demand).
• The SRC region serves as a benchmark for Lake Elsinore. For this analysis the “SRC region” is defined as
a 15-mile radius circle from the geographic center of Lake Elsinore and the rest of SRC (remainder of
Murrieta and all of Temecula).
• Expectations for the future growth of households and jobs within Lake Elsinore, and the distribution of
that expected growth, all of which also has a relationship to the larger SRC region.
• Growth in the proportion of higher-density housing as a trend that would tend to support the need for
carwash facilities.
The database of carwashes, current and future, focuses on several distinct types of carwashes (Full-Service,
Quick-Service, Self-Service, and Gas Station). Facilities frequently found adjacent to or integral with gas stations
and convenience markets are classified as “Gas Station” carwash facilities and exist throughout Lake Elsinore,
and the SRC region. Table 1 identifies a summary of all existing and known planned carwashes by type for Lake
Elsinore and the larger SRC region.
TABLE 1. EXISTING AND KNOWN PLANNED CARWASHES BY TYPE WITHIN LAKE ELSINORE AND SRC REGION
Lake Elsinore SRC Region
Count Share Count Share
Existing Carwashes 9 50.0% 83 75.5%
Full-Service 2 22.2% 10 12.0%
Quick-Service 1 11.1% 21.5 25.9%
Self-Service 2 22.2% 9.5 11.4%
Gas Station (CW) 4 44.4% 42 50.6%
Planned Carwashes 9 50.0% 27 24.5%
Full-Service 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Quick-Service 2 22.2% 11 40.7%
Self-Service 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Gas Station (CW) 7 77.8% 16 59.3%
Existing & Planned Carwashes 18 110
Source: City of Lake Elsinore; South Riverside County cities; TNDG.
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Figure 1 on the following page shows the nine identified existing carwashes and the nine planned carwashes
within Lake Elsinore, and Table 2 below identifies each carwash by name and type in Lake Elsinore.
TABLE 2. EXISTING AND PLANNED CARWASHES WITHIN LAKE ELSINORE
ID Name Type Jurisdiction
Existing Carwashes
1 Casino Carwash Full-Service Lake Elsinore
2 Rio Carwash Full-Service Lake Elsinore
3 Chevron Gas / Rocket Convenience Store Carwash Gas Station Lake Elsinore
4 Mobil Gas / Circle K Convenience Store Carwash Gas Station Lake Elsinore
5 ARCO Gas / AMPM Convenience Store Carwash Gas Station Lake Elsinore
6 Super Star Carwash Quick-Service Lake Elsinore
7 Chevron Gas / Food Mart Convenience Store Carwash Gas Station Lake Elsinore
8 Dollar Carwash Self-Service Lake Elsinore
9 U-Wash Self Service Carwash Self-Service Lake Elsinore
Planned Carwashes
10 Tommy's Express Carwash Quick-Service Lake Elsinore
11 Sunny Express Carwash Gas Station Lake Elsinore
12 Bamiyan Marketplace Carwash Gas Station Lake Elsinore
13 Evergreen Commercial Development Carwash Gas Station Lake Elsinore
14 Riverside/Lincoln Commercial Carwash Gas Station Lake Elsinore
15 Imperial Stations Carwash Gas Station Lake Elsinore
16 Kassab Travel Center Carwash Gas Station Lake Elsinore
17 Ortega Plaza Carwash Gas Station Lake Elsinore
18 Walmart Carwash Gas Station Lake Elsinore
Source: City of Lake Elsinore; TNDG.
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FIGURE 1. EXISTING AND PLANNED CARWASH BUSINESSES WITHIN LAKE ELSINORE
Source: TNDG; see text.
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Each of the geographic areas referenced in this report (i.e., Lake Elsinore and South Riverside County) have
strong growth expectations, according to the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), for both
households and employment. Though both areas referenced have strong growth expectations, household
growth in Lake Elsinore is projected to increase at a higher rate than the corresponding rate for the SRC Region.
According to the household projections, Lake Elsinore would have over 4,000 additional households, as well as
add 3,000 jobs to the city by 2035 based on the employment projections (of which about 2,500 would be in-
commuters assuming current patterns hold).
In Lake Elsinore, there are a total of nine planned or under-construction carwashes (see Figure 1 and Table 2),
and 27 in the larger SRC Region, as shown in Table 3. The analysis in Table 3 assumes that the planned/under
construction carwashes are operational as of 2030, at which time the number of households in Lake Elsinore
and the larger SRC Region will have increased as well, as shown in Table 3. Table 3 includes other measures of
growth in the Lake Elsinore and the larger SRC Region, including projected households for 2035 and 2050,
according to SCAG, and projected growth in employment for the three areas, through 2050. Household and
employment growth projections include interpolations for 2024 and 2030.
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TABLE 3. ESTIMATES OF CURRENT AND FUTURE CARWASHES WITH SCAG HOUSEHOLD AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
WITHIN LAKE ELSINORE AND SRC REGION
Variable Lake Elsinore SRC Region
Carwashes by Area
Existing carwashes 9 83
Planned/under-constr. carwashes 9 27
Total existing plus planned/under construction 18 110
Households
Households 20191 19,979 185,177
Households 20242 21,586 198,019
Households per carwash (as of 2024) 2,398 2,386
Households 20302 23,993 216,914
Change (2024-2030) 2,407 18,894
Households per carwash (By 2030), with supply equal to currently known
existing carwashes plus those planned/under constr. 1,333 1,972
Households 20351 25,999 232,659
Change (2030-2035) 2,006 15,745
Households 20501 29,254 251,125
Change (2035-2050) 3,255 18,466
Employment
Employment 20191 16,731 187,554
Employment 20242 17,868 201,259
Employment 20302 19,538 221,544
Change (2024-2030) 1,669 20,285
Employment 20351 20,929 238,449
Change (2030-2035) 1,391 16,905
Employment 20501 22,665 268,723
Change (2035-2050) 1,736 30,274
1. SCAG Projections provide data for the base year of 2019, 2035, and 2050.
2. Estimated for early 2024 and for 2030 assuming a straight-line interpolation of SCAG figures.
Source: SCAG; TNDG.
Table 4 translates the household growth figures in Table 3 into demand for additional carwashes based on that
growth. The demand projections are based on the ratio of carwashes to households in the SRC Region by 2030,
under the assumption that 2030 carwash supply is equal to the number of carwashes currently known plus
those planned or under construction. The table shows that there is a shortfall in the number of carwashes in
Lake Elsinore and the larger SRC Region as of 2024, and that supply and demand will have caught up by 2030.
The Table also recognizes that based on the projected household growth, there will be no additional capacity
for new carwashes through 2035, based on oversaturation of built carwashes that are assumed to be built by
2030.
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TABLE 4. ESTIMATES OF CURRENT AND FUTURE CARWASH DEMAND
Year Demand for TOTAL carwashes, applying regional ratio of households
per carwash as of 2030, compared to supply Lake Elsinore SRC Region
2024 Total demand as of 2024 10.9 100.4
Less number of carwashes, 2024 (9.0) (83.0)
Net demand shortfall 1.9 17.4
2030 Total demand as of 2030 12.2 110.0
Less carwash supply under the assumption that 2030 supply is
equal to currently known existing plus planned/under constr. (18.0) (110.0)
Net demand shortfall -5.8 0.0
2035 Total demand as of 2035 13.2 118.0
Additional new-carwash capacity beyond 2030 assumed supply (4.8) 8.0
Source: TNDG.
Lake Elsinore and the larger SRC Region are shown on Figure 2 and Figure 3, along with the locations of existing
and planned/under-construction carwashes. These figures make clear a defining characteristic of the
distribution of carwashes, which is that they frequently are clustered in close proximity to one another. Figure 2
and Figure 3 also show the change in projected households and employment by SCAG Transportation Analysis
Zone (TAZ ) for Lake Elsinore and the larger SRC Region.
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FIGURE 2. CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS (2019-2035) BY TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS ZONE (TAZ)
Source: SCAG; TNDG; see text.
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FIGURE 3. CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT (2019-2035) BY TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS ZONE (TAZ)
Source: SCAG; TNDG.
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In-commuting workers
Although the number of households in a carwash Trade Area is considered the primary indicator, workers in a
carwash Trade Area are another segment of potential demand for carwash services. In this regard, the Trade
Area is “employment intensive.” The SRC Region has approximately 1.3 jobs per household, compared to a
statewide average of 1.1 jobs per household.
Based on the SCAG numbers, there are over 17,800 jobs in Lake Elsinore as of 2024, of which about 14,800
would be in-commuters who do not live in the Lake Elsinore (applying the same percentages for percent of
workers living outside Lake Elsinore, as shown in Table 5 for 2021 conditions, where these outside workers
would therefore not be double-counted with the resident households), and these “extra” workers would
supplement demand for carwash services attributable to households.
TABLE 5. WORKERS WORKING WITHIN LAKE ELSINORE AND SRC REGION, PER OTM DATA FOR 2021
Lake Elsinore SRC Region
Count Share Count Share
Employed in Trade Area, 2021 14,105 140,750
Employed and Living in Trade Area 2,365 16.8% 58,650 41.7%
Employed in Trade Area, but Living Outside 11,740 83.2% 82,100 58.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program, 2021; TNDG.
Lake Elsinore’s other favorable market conditions supplement the findings of these household-growth
estimates. In addition to the high numbers of in-commuting employees in the area, the high ratio of vehicles
per household in Lake Elsinore, and trends of households transitioning from lower-density to higher-density
housing in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties (see following sections), also indicate a growing need for
carwash services.
Vehicles per household
Table 6 below shows the estimated average number of vehicles available per household for Lake Elsinore,
Riverside County, the state of California, and the entire United States. Lake Elsinore’s ratio of vehicles-to-
households slightly exceeds the ratio for Riverside County, which is higher than the ratios for California and the
US.
TABLE 6. ESTIMATED AVERAGE NUMBER OF VEHICLES PER HOUSEHOLD
City of Lake
Elsinore
Riverside
County California U.S.
Estimate of total vehicles 46,659 1,694,449 26,428,665 236,480,231
Vehicles/household 2.23 2.20 1.95 1.82
As % of CA average 114% 113% 100% 93%
As % of US average 122% 121% 107% 100%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates; Esri; TNDG.
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Trends in higher-density housing
Another trend that would appear to be favorable for the carwash industry is the growth of higher-density
housing outpacing single-family development, which should also increase the demand for carwash facilities of
one kind or another. Apartment or condominium dwellers are less likely to have access to equipment and space
commonly associated with washing one’s own automobile. Rules and regulations may further decrease the
likelihood of car washing by multifamily housing residents.
Table 7 below summarizes trends over the period 2010 to 2022 in housing occupancy by renter or owner, and
by density category (according to designations used by the U.S. Census, which are based on “units in
structure”). Although the rapidly growing Inland Empire is known as a place where traditional single-family
home building is a strong component of that growth, renter-occupied housing units have kept pace with
owner-occupied units over the period of 2010 to 2022. For both owners and renters, the greatest percentage
change among the units-in-structure categories, by far, occurred in the highest-density category of "50 or
more" (units in structure) – 58% and 66%, for owners and renters respectively, equaling 26,500 new
households over the 12-year period.
Table 8 compares conditions in 2010 with 2022 in a different way, showing the relationship between low
density and higher-density housing in terms of building permits at the two points in time for Riverside and San
Bernardino Counties. In 2010, higher-density permits were 16 and 9 percent of the 2-county totals, for units
and value, respectively. In 2022, higher-density permits had increased considerably as a percent of the total, at
24 and 13 percent of the totals, for units and value. In 2022, values for permitted housing of 1 or 2 units in
structure were 3.2 times the amount in 2010, and values in the higher density category were 4.5 times higher
than 2010.
The relative shift towards multi-family housing in the Inland Empire region is likely to intensify in future years as
cities in the region pursue policies to incentivize affordable housing production pursuant to Regional Housing
Needs Assessment (RHNA) targets.
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TABLE 7. TRENDS IN HIGHER-DENSITY HOUSING, RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES, 2010-2022
Owners and Renters by
# Units in Structure
Riverside County San Bernardino
County Total of two counties
Change in
units 2010-
2022
% change
2010-2022
As % of total
units
2010 2022 2010 2022 2010 2022 2010 2022
Total: (Occupied hsg units) 670,075 769,475 594,975 674,191 1,265,050 1,443,666 178,616 14.1%
Owner-occupied housing units: 458,273 527,528 372,535 422,060 830,808 949,588 118,780 14.3% 65.7% 65.8%
1 and 2 405,543 470,280 338,469 389,155 744,012 859,435 115,423 15.5% 58.8% 59.5%
3 to 49 5,151 6,917 4,658 4,224 9,809 11,141 1,332 13.6% 0.8% 0.8%
50 or more 803 1,184 564 973 1,367 2,157 790 57.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Mobile and other 46,776 49,147 28,844 27,708 75,620 76,855 1,235 1.6% 6.0% 5.3%
Renter-occupied housing units: 211,802 241,947 222,440 252,131 434,242 494,078 59,836 13.8% 34.3% 34.2%
1 and 2 109,788 118,328 112,528 123,887 222,316 242,215 19,899 9.0% 17.6% 16.8%
3 to 49 71,801 80,954 77,139 82,511 148,940 163,465 14,525 9.8% 11.8% 11.3%
50 or more 17,209 28,360 21,804 36,385 39,013 64,745 25,732 66.0% 3.1% 4.5%
Mobile and other 13,004 14,305 10,969 9,348 23,973 23,653 -320 -1.3% 1.9% 1.6%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2010 1-Year Estimates, ACS 2022 1-Year Estimates; TNDG.
TABLE 8. CENSUS BUILDING PERMIT ACTIVITY IN 2010 AND 2022
Geography
1 - 2 units 3 or More units Total units 3 or More
units as a %
of Total Units
3 or More
units as a % of
Total Value Units Value Units Value Units Value
2010 Building Permits
Riverside County 4,027 $877,515,567 520 $70,351,847 4,547 $947,867,414 11.4% 7.4%
San Bernardino County 1,282 $234,029,332 507 $48,813,084 1,789 $282,842,416 28.3% 17.3%
Combined 5,309 $1,111,544,899 1,027 $119,164,931 6,336 $1,230,709,830 16.2% 9.7%
2022 Building Permits
Riverside County 8,485 $2,378,603,067 1,799 $246,674,870 10,284 $2,625,277,937 17.5% 9.4%
San Bernardino County 4,210 $1,157,821,183 2,253 $283,822,245 6,463 $1,441,643,428 34.9% 19.7%
Combined 12,695 $3,536,424,250 4,052 $530,497,115 16,747 $4,066,921,365 24.2% 13.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division, Building Permit Survey; TNDG
Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
16
The U.S. carwash industry
According to various sources 1 reviewed by TNDG, carwash technology, products, and business practices
continue to evolve, with the combined effects of improving their environmental impacts and enhancing the
potential appeal of such businesses to owners/operators as well as customers. The emergence of new
technologies could also be a reason for new facilities to replace older, increasingly obsolescent ones.
The Covid-19 pandemic caused carwash business activity to decline, presumably because of people getting out
less. However, the pandemic also increased the need for cleanliness/disinfecting, and some carwash businesses
promoted this kind of service as a way to counter business downturns. On a long-term basis, it is reasonable to
conclude that this kind of adaptation will tend to smooth out businesses disruptions if future pandemic
measures arise.
The pandemic may also have induced certain advancements in the carwash business, for example, contactless
payments, and income from subscription-based programs, which would have helped stabilize these firms when
it was most needed.
Carwash operators are expanding marketing efforts with membership programs, loyalty bonuses, and the like,
which should all tend to increase business activity generally.
1 Including for example carwash.com and research organizations that specialize in certain industries such as carwashes,
including Grand View Research.
Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
17
4. Convenience Market Analysis, Data, and Findings
Following a similar supply/demand methodology as used for the carwash analysis, this chapter projects
potential future demand for the development of new convenience market facilities in Lake Elsinore. Consistent
with recent historic trends, the analysis assumes that all future convenience markets would be developed in
conjunction with gas stations.
The database of existing and planned convenience markets focuses on two different types (stand-alone
Convenience Markets and Convenience Markets with Gas Stations). Convenience markets are frequently
established with gas stations and vice versa and are classified in this analysis as “Convenience Markets with Gas
Stations”. These stores exist throughout Lake Elsinore, and the larger SRC region. Table 9 below identifies a
summary of all existing and known planned convenience markets by type for Lake Elsinore and the larger SRC
region. Note that while Table 9 provides a summary of all existing Convenience Markets for both Lake Elsinore
and the larger SRC region, the estimates and projections in Tables 10, 11a, and 11b focus strictly on market
demand for Convenience Markets with Gas Stations as this is the generally the standard for newer existing and
planned convenience markets.
TABLE 9. EXISTING AND KNOWN PLANNED CONVENIENCE MARKETS BY TYPE WITHIN LAKE ELSINORE AND SRC REGION
Lake Elsinore SRC Region
Count Share Count Share
Existing Convenience Markets 21 75.0% 134 89.3%
Convenience Market (Only) 5 23.8% 31 23.1%
Convenience Market with Gas Stations 16 76.2% 103 76.9%
Planned Convenience Markets 7 25.0% 16 10.7%
Convenience Market with Gas Stations 7 100.0% 16 100.0%
Existing & Planned Convenience Markets 28 150
Source: City of Lake Elsinore; South Riverside County cities; TNDG.
In Lake Elsinore, there are a total of seven planned or under-construction convenience markets and 16 in the
larger SRC region, as shown in Table 10 below. The analysis in Table 10 assumes that the planned/under
construction convenience markets will be operational as of 2030, at which time the number of households in
Lake Elsinore and the larger SRC region will have increased as well, as shown in Table 10. Table 10 includes
other measures of growth in the Lake Elsinore and the larger SRC region, including projected households for
2035 and 2050, according to SCAG, and projected growth in employment for the three areas, through 2050.
Household and employment growth projections include interpolations for 2024 and 2030.
Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
18
TABLE 10. ESTIMATES OF CURRENT AND FUTURE CONVENIENCE MARKETS WITH SCAG HOUSEHOLD AND EMPLOYMENT
PROJECTIONS WITHIN LAKE ELSINORE AND SRC REGION
Variable Lake Elsinore SRC Region
Convenience Markets by Area
Existing convenience markets (with gas stations) 16 103
Planned/under-construction convenience markets (with gas stations) 7 16
Total existing plus planned/under construction 23 119
Households
Households 20191 19,979 185,177
Households 20242 21,586 198,019
Households per convenience market (as of 2024) 1,349 1,923
Households 20302 23,993 216,914
Change (2024-2030) 2,407 18,894
Households per convenience market (By 2030), with supply equal to currently
known existing convenience markets plus those planned/under construction 1,043 1,823
Households 20351 25,999 232,659
Change (2030-2035) 2,006 15,745
Households 20501 29,254 251,125
Change (2035-2050) 3,255 18,466
Employment
Employment 20191 16,731 187,554
Employment 20242 17,868 201,259
Employment 20302 19,538 221,544
Change (2024-2030) 1,669 20,285
Employment 20351 20,929 238,449
Change (2030-2035) 1,391 16,905
Employment 20501 22,665 268,723
Change (2035-2050) 1,736 30,274
1. SCAG Projections provide data for the base year of 2019, 2035, and 2050.
2. Estimated for early 2024 and for 2030 assuming a straight-line interpolation of SCAG figures.
Source: SCAG; TNDG.
Table 11a translates the household growth figures in Table 10 into demand for additional gas stations/
convenience markets based on that growth. The demand projections are based on the ratio of gas
stations/convenience markets to households in the SRC region by 2030, under the assumption that 2030
convenience market supply is equal to the number of gas stations/convenience markets currently known plus
those planned or under construction. The table shows that, compared to regional (south Riverside County)
benchmarks, Lake Elsinore currently is currently “oversupplied” with gas stations/convenience markets. Based
on the regional standard of approximately one gas station/convenience market per 1,800 households, Lake
Elsinore’s resident “need” is estimated at approximately 12 gas stations/convenience markets. The actual
number of existing gas stations/convenience markets is 16, suggesting that the City has 4 more gas
stations/convenience markets than it should theoretically be able to support. Despite this theoretical
“oversupply,” data from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration indicate that the City’s
existing gas stations are performing strongly (average annual taxable sales in 2023 of $7.6 million per station,
compared to the countywide average of $7.0 million per station).
Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
19
TABLE 11A. ESTIMATES OF CURRENT AND FUTURE CONVENIENCE MARKET DEMAND
Year Demand for TOTAL convenience markets, applying regional ratio of
households per convenience market as of 2030, compared to supply
Lake
Elsinore
SRC
Region
2024 Total demand as of 2024 11.8 108.6
Less number of convenience markets, 2024 (16.0) (103.0)
Net demand shortfall/(oversupply) -4.2 5.6
2030 Total demand as of 2030 13.2 119.0
Less convenience market supply under the assumption that 2030 supply is
equal to currently known existing plus planned/under construction (23.0) (119.0)
Net demand shortfall/(oversupply) -9.8 0.0
2035 Total demand as of 2035 14.3 127.6
Additional new-convenience market capacity beyond 2030 assumed supply (8.7) 8.6
Source: TNDG.
Given the strong sales performance of the City’s existing facilities, it is appropriate to consider a demand
standard for Lake Elsinore that is more aggressive than the regional benchmark, reflecting the fact that visitors
generate significant demand for convenience stores and gas stations, beyond what would be required for the
City’s resident population. As such, Table 11b provides an alternative demand forecast which applies a 50%
increase to the future demand projections (the 50% adjustment is intended account for growth in visitor
spending on gas station/convenience market sales). Under this alternative forecast, Lake Elsinore could support
approximately 5 new convenience markets (over and above the existing inventory) by 2035. In comparison,
there are currently 7 planned convenience market (gas station) projects in the City, suggesting that the number
of planned projects exceeds foreseeable demand.
TABLE 11B. ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATES OF CURRENT AND FUTURE CONVENIENCE MARKET DEMAND ACCOUNTING FOR
ADDITIONAL VISITOR DEMAND AT 50% OF RESIDENT DEMAND
Year Alternative calculation to account for visitor demand in Lake Elsinore @ 50% of
resident demand
Lake
Elsinore
SRC
Region
2030 Total demand as of 2030 (adjusted for visitor demand) 19.7 N/A
Less number of convenience markets, 2024 N/A
Under the assumption that 2030 convenience market supply is equal to
currently known existing plus planned/under constr. facilities (23.0)
Net demand shortfall/(oversupply) -3.3 N/A
2035 Total demand as of 2035 21.4 N/A
Additional new-convenience market capacity beyond 2030 assumed supply (1.6) N/A
Source: TNDG.
Address
19930 Collier Ave, 92530
510 N Main St, 92530
29300 Central Ave, 92530
Address
31784 Casino Dr
31151 Riverside Dr
28781 CA-74 Adjacent to Lake Elsinore Boundry
31495 Riverside Dr
31585 Canyon Estates
33545 Mission Trail
31495 Riverside Dr
32556 Mission Trail Adjacent to Lake Elsinore Boundry
Total: 11
Address
NW Corner of Grand Ave and SR 74 Commercial Center
NE Corner Central Ave. and Cambern Ave.Commercial Center
Mission Trail and Casino Drive Conv. Store, Gas station, and Carwash (Expired
A il 1 2024)SW Corner of Riverside Dr. and Collier Ave.Stand Alone
SW Corner of Lincoln St. and Riverside Dr.Commercial Center
31401 Riverside Dr.Stand Alone
31706 Casino Dr.Stand Alone (Expired March 22, 2024)
Attached to business
Attached to business
Attached to business
Attached to business
Attached to business
Attached to business
Attached to business
Attached to business
Attached to business
Attached to business
Comments
Lake Elsinore Car Washes
U-Wash Self Service Car Wash
U-Wash Self Service Car Wash
Rio Car Wash
Super Star Car Wash
Eco Express Wash & Lube
Laserwash 360 Plus
Casino Carwash
Dollar Carwash
CommentsName
Tommy's Express Carwash
Riverside/Lincoln Commercial
Sunny Express Carwash
Imperial Stations
Kassab Travel Center
Bamiyan Marketplace
Evergreen Commercial Development
Comments
Entitled/Future
Name
Attached to Gas Stations
Name Address Comments
Total with Entitled: 18
Murrieta Car Washes
24625 Madison Ave, 92562
Shell 40981 California Oaks Rd, 92562
Shell 36520 Temeku St, 92563
Shell 39224 Winchester Rd, 92563
ARCO 41240 Kalmia St, 92562
ARCO (Meguiar's Car Wash)39460 Murrieta Hot Springs Rd, 92563
ARCO (Murrieta Auto Wash & Detail Center)39460 Murrieta Hot Springs Rd, 92563
California Oaks Quick Lube 40933 California Oaks Rd, 92562
Cheveron
Stand Alone
Name Address Comments
Shell 39614 Los Alamos Rd, 92563
Shell (Offshore Auto Spa)40452 Murrieta Hot Springs Rd, 92563
39495 Avenida Acacias, 92563
Quick Quack Car Wash 40640 California Oaks Rd, 92562
Quick Quack Car Wash 28040 Clinton Keith Rd, 92563
Self Serve Car Wash 24700 A St, 92562
Cal Oaks Car Wash 24399 Skyview Ridge, 92562
California Oaks Car Wash 40933 California Oaks Rd, 92562
Fast5Xpress Car Wash Murrieta 40172 Murrieta Hot Springs Rd, 92563
Fast5Xpress Car Wash Murrieta 2 41516 Kalmia St, 92562
Jimmy's Ultra Express Car Wash
Winchester Self Serve Car Wash 39065 Winchester Rd, 92563
Total: 22
Soak N Shine Express Car Wash 40981 California Oaks Rd, 92562
Super Star Car Wash 39133 Delhaven St, 92563
Super Star Car Wash 27620 Clinton Keith Rd, 92562
Attached to Gas Stations
Name
Arco
Chevron Rocket
Circle K
Stand Alone
Attached to business
Attached to business
Attached to business
Attached to business
Attached to business
Attached to business
Attached to business
Attached to business
Perris Car Washes
Attached to Gas Stations
Name Address Comments
Chevron 796 Ramona Expy, 92571
Chevron 500 E San Jacinto Ave, 92571
Express Service Wash, Lube & Smog
Shell 4039 N Perris Blvd, 92571
Sinclair Gas Station 216 S Perris Blvd, 92570
23261 Cajalco Expy, 92571
Mobil 1675 N Perris Bld
Shell 490 E San Jacinto Ave, 92571
Shell 1765 Ethanac Rd, 92570
Stand Alone
Name Address Comments
Fast5Xpress Car Wash Perris 1721 N Perris Blvd, 92571
Perris Car Wash 2131 N Perris Blvd, 92571
Splash Express @ Perris 23261 Cajalco Expy, 92571
Super Star Car Wash 34 Ramona Expy, 92571
Total: 15
Wildomar Car Washes
Quick Quack Car Wash 3175 Case Rd, 92570
Quick Quack Car Wash 2000 N Perris Blvd, 92571
Self serve Car Wash 2303 N Perris Blvd, 92571
Total: 6
Stand Alone
Name Address Comments
ARCO 22120 Bundy Canyon Rd, 92595
ARCO 36228 Hidden Springs Rd, 92595
Cheveron/Extra Mile 23905 Catt Rd, 92595
Shell 23805 Clinton Keith, 92595
Superstar Carwash 32374 Clinton Keith Rd, 92595
Tiger Shine Express Car Wash 32120 Clinton Keith Rd, 92595
Attached to Gas Stations
Name Address Comments
Project
Number Project Name Type Project Location APN
Entitlement Approval
Date
Entitlement
Expiration
Date
Permit
Application
Permit
Status
PA 2020-106 Sunny Express Carwash Stand Alone 31401 Riverside Dr.379-160-002 June 22, 2021 -July 28, 2021 Issued
PA 2019-07 Bamiyan Marketplace Commercial Center NW Corner of Grand
Ave and SR 74
381-320-020;
023
August 9, 2022 August 9, 2024 April 17, 2024 In Review
PA 2021-34 Evergreen Commercial
Development
Commercial Center NE Corner Central Ave.
and Cambern Ave.
377-020-014;
016; 017; 018;
019
April 25, 2023 April 25, 2025 July 17, 2023 In Review
PA 2020-92 Riverside/Lincoln
Commercial (Ilan
Golcheh)
Commercial Center SW Corner of Lincoln St.
and Riverside Dr.
379-111-017,
018, 019, and
020
April 16, 2024 April 16, 2026 --
PA 2020-107 Tommy's Express Stand Alone 31706 Casino Dr.363-171-005 March 22, 2022 March 22, 2024 June 14, 2023 Expired
PA 2017-62 Imperial Stations Conv. Store, Gas
station,
and Carwash
Mission Trail and
Casino Drive
363-172-016 April 1, 2022 April 1, 2024 --
PA 2016-112 Kassab Travel Center
(Modification Application)
Conv. Store, Gas
station, and Carwash
SW Corner of Riverside
Dr. and Collier Ave.
378-030-007,
009
----
Listing of Carwash Facilities by Application Status - August 30, 2024
Attachment 3
City of Lake Elsinore, California
Approved - In Building Permit Process
Approved - Awaiting Building Submittal
Recently Expired
In Planning Process