HomeMy WebLinkAboutStaff Report CITY OF
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DREAM EXTREME
REPORT TO CITY COUNCIL
To: Honorable Mayor and Members of the City Council
From: Jason Simpson, City Manager
Prepared by: Damaris Abraham, Community Development Director
Date: October 8, 2024
Subject: Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis and Findings
Recommendation
Receive and File the Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis Report and Adopt the Report's
Findings that the City of Lake Elsinore is oversaturated with carwash businesses.
Background
At the May 14, 2024 City Council meeting, Council Member Magee requested that staff prepare
a carwash saturation study detailing the number and the location of existing operating carwashes,
approved carwashes that are yet to be constructed (including their status), and any proposed
applications or pre-applications that are in process. The purpose of the requested study is to give
City staff and the City Council a tool when reviewing entitlement applications for carwashes. The
City staff contracted with The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) to better understand the current
market and short and long-term demands.
Discussion
Findings from the analysis provides a citywide framework for anticipating the need for new
carwash businesses over the next 11 years (through 2035). The analysis considers the existing
inventory of carwashes in Lake Elsinore and the larger South Riverside County (SRC) market
area for comparison, and also quantified carwash projects currently planned/approved, or under
construction in the market area. Tables 1 and 2 below depict existing and known carwashes within
Lake Elsinore and the SRC region.
City I Car Washes Poplulation I Sq Miles CW per SQ Mile
Lake Elsinore 18 71,452 41.69 2.32
Murrieta 22 109,177 33.61 1.53
Perris 15 79,311 31.50 2.10
Wildomar 6 36,327 23.67 3.95
Other 49 237,985 104.80 3.95
Totals 110 534,252 235 2.14
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Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis and Findings
Table 1:Carwashes within Lake Elsinore and surrounding region
Lake Elsinore SRC Region
Count Share Count Share
Existing Carwashes 9 50.0% 83 75.5%
Full-Service 2 22.2% 10 12.0%
Quick-Service 1 11.1% 21.5 25.9%
Self-Service 2 22.2% 9.5 11.4%
Gas Station(CW) 4 44.4% 42 50.6%
Planned Carwashes 9 50.0% 27 24.5%
Full-Service 0 0.09b 0 0.0 o
Quick-Service 2 22.2% 11 40.7%
Self-Service 01 0.090 1 01 0.09'0
Gas Station(CW) 7 77.W.1 16
Existing& Planned Carwashes 181 1 110 -
Table 2:Existing and known planned carwashes by type within Lake Elsinore and SRC region
FIGURE 1.EXISTING AND PLANNED CARWASH BUSINESSES WITHIN LAKE ELSINORE
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O Existing carwashes
O Planned Carwashes
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Lake Elsinore Carwash Market Analysis and Findings
As of 2024, the City has 9 existing and 9 potential (under construction, entitled, or application in
process) carwash businesses. Based on the population and future population demand analysis,
the Report finds a total demand for 12 carwashes in 2030 and 13 carwashes in 2035. Based on
the demand analysis and assuming the potential businesses are built, the Report finds that the
City is oversaturated by 6 carwashes through 2030 and by 5 carwashes through 2035.
Demand for TOTAL carwashes,applying regional of Lake
Year households per carwash as of
2030, compared to supply Elsinoreo
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2024 Total demand as of 2024 10-9 100.4
Less number of carwashes, 2024 (9.0) is3.0;
Net demand shortfall 1.9 17.4
2030 Total demand as of 2030 12.= 110.0
Less carwash supply under the assumption that 2030 supply is 1,18.0) (110.0;
equal to currently known existing plus planned/under constr.
Net demand shortfall -5.8 0.0
2035 Total demand as of 2035 13__'1 118.0
Additicnal new-carwash capacity beyond 2030 assumed supply (4.8)1 8.0
Table 3:Estimates of current and future carwash demand
In addition to the carwash supply/demand analysis, the analysis also evaluated potential demand
for new convenience markets/gas stations through 2035, finding these uses are also oversupplied
in the City.
Fiscal Impact
No direct additional fiscal impact.
Attachments
Attachment 1 —TNDG Carwash Market Analysis dated 09.13.2024
Attachment 2 — Lake Elsinore and Surrounding Cities Car Wash Analysis
Attachment 3 — Listing of Carwash Facilities by Application Status -August 30, 2024
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