HomeMy WebLinkAboutNDC Agreement with Lake Elsinore signed Addendum to Proposal Acceptance
This Addendum to Proposal Acceptance is made and entered into as of September 27,
2017, by and between Leibold McClendon & Mann, PC on behalf of the City of Lake Elsinore, a
municipal corporation ("City") and National Demographics Corporation ("Consultant").
RECITALS
A. The City has determined that it requires the professional services outlined in
Consultant's Proposal dated September 26, 2017 (attached) and described in the Scope of
Work therein as Level I and Level II.
B. Consultant possesses the skill, experience, ability, background, certification and
knowledge to perform the services described in Consultant's Proposal on the terms and
conditions described therein.
C. City desires to retain Consultant to perform the services as provided therein by
and through its City Attorney, Leibold McClendon & Mann PC as set forth in this Addendum.
AGREEMENT
1. Scope of Services. Consultant shall perform the services described as Level I
and Level II in Consultant's Proposal. Consultant shall perform such services and complete the
tasks to be performed at the time, place, and in the manner specified in Consultant's Proposal,
subject to the direction of the City Attorney Barbara Leibold or other designated representative
that City may provide from time to time. Any change in the services to be provided or tasks to
be performed shall be set forth in a written amendment approved by the City Attorney and
physically attached to this Addendum.
2. Performance and Compensation.
a. Time of Essence. Time is of the essence in the performance of the
professional services pursuant to this Addendum and Consultant's Proposal. The time for
completion of the professional services to be performed by Consultant is an essential condition
of this Addendum and Proposal Acceptance. Consultant shall prosecute regularly and diligently
the professional services contemplated pursuant to the performance schedule in the
Consultant's Proposal.
b. Delivery of Work Product. The services as provided herein are for the
purposes of aiding the Office of the City Attorney in matters involving pre-litigation and litigation
in which the City is or may be a litigant. Accordingly, all correspondence, communications,
reports and all other materials shall be transmitted or otherwise provided by Consultant solely
and exclusively to the Office of the City Attorney as follows:
Barbara Leibold, City Attorney
c/o Leibold McClendon & Mann
9841 Irvine Center Drive, Suite 230
Irvine, California 92618
barbara@ceqa.com
949-585-6300
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C. Compensation. Compensation to be paid to Consultant shall be in
accordance with the fees set forth in Consultants' Proposal. In no event shall Consultant's
compensation exceed Ten Thousand Seven Hundred Fifty Dollars ($10,750) without additional
written authorization from the City Attorney. Notwithstanding any provision of Consultant's
Proposal to the contrary, out of pocket expenses set forth in Exhibit A shall be reimbursed at
cost without an inflator or administrative charge.
3. Independent Contractor. It is understood that Consultant, in the performance of
the work and services agreed to be performed, shall act as and be an independent contractor
and shall not act as an agent or employee of the City or Leibold McClendon & Mann.
4. Assignment and Subcontracting. The parties recognize that a substantial
inducement to City for entering into this Agreement is the professional reputation, experience
and competence of Consultant. Consultant shall not subcontract any portion of the work to be
performed without the written authorization of the City.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, the parties have caused this Addendum to be executed on the
date first written above.
"CITY" "CONSULTANT'
Leibold McClendon & Mann, PC, National Demographics Corporation
in itscapacity as City Attorney,CIT 1/OF LAKE Eltr"KIORE
I £rbara Leib Id, City Attorney K. Douglas Johnson, President
Attachments: Consultant's Proposal
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A(-JL�� National Demographics Corporation
NDC
A Proposal to the
City of Lake Elsinore
for Demographic Services
By National Demographics Corporation
Douglas Johnson, President
September 26, 2017
Phone: (818) 254-1221 P.O. Box 5271 infogNDCresearch.com
FAX (818) 254-1221 Glendale, CA 91221 www.NDCresearch.com
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NDCNational Demographics Corporation
September 26, 2017
Ms. Barbara Leibold
City Attorney, City of Lake Elsinore
c/o Leibold McClendon&Mann,P.C.
9841 Irvine Center Drive, Suite 230
Irvine, California 92618-4316
Dear Ms. Liebold,
Thank you for the opportunity to provide this proposal to the City of Lake Elsinore. NDC has 38
years of experience districting and redistricting local jurisdictions,together with unmatched experience
working with jurisdictions facing California Voting Rights Act (CVRA) concerns. Based in Glendale,
NDC has worked on CVRA analysis and districting efforts for over 60 cities,250 school districts,and
a variety of other local California jurisdictions, including the western Riverside County cities of
Murrieta, Temecula, Wildomar, Menifee, Hemet, Perris, Corona, Eastvale and Moreno Valley. We
welcome the opportunity to bring the firm's expertise and skills to assist the City.
For each project, there are certain required basic elements, and there are several options that the City
can include or leave out at its option. NDC carefully tailors each project to the needs and goals of the
individual client partner. NDC welcomes the opportunity to work with the City to encourage public
participation in the districting process, and NDC offers a number of tools developed specifically for
public engagement in this effort. And we offer templates and samples for every step of the project:
analysis and staff reports;outreach materials;web pages and even resolution and ordinance templates.
The attached proposal consists of a brief introduction;specific proposed project elements and options;
timeline and cost information;conclusion;and signature section.NDC looks forward to working with
you on this effort. Please call or email if you have any questions, concerns, or requests regarding this
proposal.
Sincerely,
Douglas Johnson
President
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Table of Contents
ExecutiveSummary of Proposal........................................................................................................3
About National Demographics Corporation:..................................................................................4
BriefCompany History..........................................................................................................4
NDC and the California Voting Rights Act.......................................................................4
Challenges of Demographic and Election History Analysis and CVRA.....................................5
NDC's CVRA Analysis Process.........................................................................................................6
PotentialNext Steps...............................................................................................................7
NDC's Districting Process.................................................................................................................7
TechnicalExpertise................................................................................................................7
PublicInvolvement................................................................................................................7
Minority Group Outreach/Partnerships.............................................................................8
Openness.................................................................................................................................8
MediaOutreach......................................................................................................................8
LocalLeadership.....................................................................................................................8
ImpeccableReferences..........................................................................................................8
ProposedScope of Work....................................................................................................................9
Level 1 - database of demographics & elections plus test District maps.....................................9
Task A: Create the demographic database..........................................................................9
Task B: Elections Database................................................................................................10
TaskC: Test District Map(s)...............................................................................................10
Level II—Racially Polarized Voting Analysis................................................................................11
Level III - Creating Districts (if necessary)....................................................................................11
Basic Districting Project Elements....................................................................................11
Optional Districting Project Elements..............................................................................12
Other Potential Project-Related Expenses:...........................................................................12
AdditionalAnalysis....................................................................................................................12
RequestedPayment terms:................................................................................................................13
Conclusion..........................................................................................................................................13
ProposalAcceptance.........................................................................................................................14
Appendix
SampleClient List........................................................................................................15
Resume of President Dr. Douglas Johnson............................................................17
Resume of Vice President Dr.Justin Levitt............................................................19
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Executive Summary of Proposal
Level1:demographic and election historyprofiles
This is a short-term effort to compile the demographics of a jurisdiction, its election
history, and to study rather extreme districting test plans looking at (1) whether a
majority-minority district is possible,even if it takes racial gerrymandering to get there;
and (2) how extreme the lines would need to get to avoid pairing any current
officeholder.None of these test maps are proposals that we recommend adopting,and
in fact almost all would be illegal to adopt, but they give the jurisdiction a sense of
what plaintiffs might want in a map and how `ugly' a map would need to be to avoid
pairing current officeholders.
About 90% of jurisdictions get enough information from just this step to make the
decision whether to move to district elections (or not to),without the time and expense
of a polarized voting analysis.
Timeline: 2 weeks (can be faster if needed)
Cost: $5,750 (not including any in-person meeting fee)
Level 2.racially polarized voting analysis(if desired)
Starting with two recent Council elections, and then adding additional elections if/as
needed for added clarity,NDC would conduct a polarized voting analysis to determine
the level of polarized voting present,if any.
Timeline: 3 weeks for initial 2 or 3 election(s) (can be faster if needed)
Cost: $1,500 per election contest (not including any in-person meeting fee)
Level 3. drawing election districts(if desired)
NDC will provide a variety of services related to the development and refinement of
election districts, including public outreach, official consideration, adoption and
implementation.
Optional elements include an NDC-designed and managed project website;paper-and
excel-based"public participation kit";online redistricting system that allows members
of the public to draw and submit redistricting proposals online;and Spanish translation
services.
Timeline: From one to fourteen months
Basic Elements: $22,500 plus per-meeting and any optional project element costs
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About National Demographics Corporation:
Brief Company History
NDC has served hundreds of local governments over the past 37 years. Founded in 1979,
NDC has performed work in all regions of the country, serving clients as varied as the States
of Mississippi, Arizona, Florida and Illinois, Clark County Nevada, American Waterworks,
California's Franchise Tax Board, the San Diego Unified School District, the Foundation for
California, and the Arizona cities of Glendale,Mesa, Peoria,Phoenix,Mesa and Surprise.
The company is especially well known for its work in local and state government. Since 2002,
NDC has established a reputation as the state's leading demographic expert on the California
Voting Rights Act (CVRA), having performed demographic assessments of potential CVRA
liability for over 300 jurisdictions.
No company has been responsible for addressing the electoral demographic needs of more
local governments, as NDC has districted and/or redistricted well over 150 local school
districts, cities,water districts, county boards, and other local districts. Nationally recognized
as a pioneer in good government districting and redistricting, NDC is especially experienced
in working with local jurisdictions in California,Arizona and Nevada.
This background gives us unmatched expertise in the issues, questions, and decisions
jurisdictions face in any discussion regarding the California and Federal Voting Rights Act and
related election system choices.
NDC and the California Voting Rights Act
NDC has performed analysis of potential demographic liability under the California Voting
Rights Act (CVRA) for over 200 jurisdictions in California. For those jurisdictions actually
sued under CVRA (none of which were NDC clients prior to the filing of the lawsuit), all but
one hired NDC to assist in evaluating their demographics, voting history, legal situation, and
options. This includes Madera Unified, Modesto, the City of Madera, Visalia, Compton, the
City of Escondido,Palmdale,Santa Clarita Community College District,Glendale Community
College District, ABC Unified, and Anaheim. Only Compton Community College faced a
lawsuit without the assistance of NDC, as their case was a `friendly' lawsuit where the
settlement was pre-arranged with the plaintiffs prior to the filing of the case.
No other firm even comes close to NDC's experience with this still-new law,and many of the
jurisdictions listed above came to NDC after discovering the demographers they initially hired
either did not sufficiently understand California and Federal Voting Rights law and the related
demographics to help, or the demographers so badly handled the project that their own
demographers'work directly resulted in the jurisdiction being sued.
NDC's expertise in both Voting Rights demographics and in the drawing of election districts
is widely recognized. NDC's personnel are responsible for numerous books and articles on
the subject, and President Douglas Johnson has been a speaker on the CVRA at conferences
of the California School Board Association, the California Latino School Board Member
Association, the California League of Cities, and other state and national conferences.
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Challenges of Demographic and Election History Analysis and CVRA
While the Federal Voting Rights Act enjoys nearly 50 years of legal precedents, California's
version both builds on and directly rejects those precedents. Unfortunately, the law itself and
the two court decisions issued so far do not clearly define the terms and potential liability
involved.
The Federal Voting Rights Act requires plaintiffs to show that the"protected class"population
in question can form an effective majority of an election district, and to show, through the
"totality of circumstances," that racial motivations lie either overtly or covertly behind voting
behavior in the jurisdiction. The California law explicitly rejects both of those requirements.
Instead the question of liability under California's law lies entirely on the presence of absence
of"racially polarized voting."
Under Federal law, analysis of polarized voting relies heavily on voting behavior in
"homogeneous" voting precincts — precincts where 80 percent or more of the voters are of
the same ethnicity.In the southern United States,where housing segregation is common,there
are usually many such precincts in a given jurisdiction. In the more diverse neighborhoods of
California, however, such precincts are very rare. "Ecological Regression," meaning the
statistical analysis of voting patterns and demographics of each precinct in a given jurisdiction,
acts as a `backup' analysis tool in a jurisdiction that has lots of homogeneous precincts, and
those homogeneous precincts act as statistical controls to ensure the accuracy of the Ecological
Regression results. Since California generally lacks those natural statistical controls, the
mathematical details of the ecological regression take on a level of importance in California
cases that has never been seen or evaluated in any federal precedent. The demographer you
select must understand these issues —both in their statistical and legal context—to accurately
work with your counsel to assess potential liability and evaluate the options available to the
jurisdiction.
One key unanswered question: "how big is a voting bloc"?Do 70 protected class need to vote
for a given candidate before he or she is considered the"preferred candidate"of that protected
class? 80 percent? One plaintiff expert claims that a 51 — 49 percent split among protected
class voters is all that is required — meaning if the candidate preferred by 49 percent of
protected class voters loses,the jurisdiction is in violation of the law.This is likely absurd,but
no court has ruled on the question of how big a voting bloc must be before it qualified.
Another unanswered question:who is a"protected class candidate"?The California law set an
unprecedented focus on elections where members of a protected class are candidates.But who
"counts" as a protected class candidate? In Anaheim, one attorney for the Latino plaintiffs
said that a half-Filipino, half-Latino Councilmember who self-described as Latina "didn't
count."In the Eastside Elementary School District,the potential plaintiff implied that a School
Board trustee with the last name of Johnson but who was 100% Mexican-American (and
whose maiden name was "Ortega") did not count because (allegedly) voters did not know she
was Latina. In the City of Compton case,plaintiffs said a half-African-American / half-Latina
Councilmember `did not count' because they said she did not receive enough support from
Latino voters. These questions have been raised in the CVRA cases filed or threatened so far,
but remain unanswered.
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Another unanswered question: how reliable do the Ecological Regression results need to be
before the Court will take action based on them?The statistical tools used generate a number
of measures of accuracy and relevance. These questions were raised in the Palmdale case but
not addressed in the Court's ruling. One common failing of potential plaintiff and jurisdiction
demographers is to focus on the "point estimate" generated by the Ecological Regression. It
is simple to take that number and be able to say "X percent of Latino voters supported
candidate Y." But the mathematics say something different: NDC has often seen situations
where the margin of error on those point estimates has been greater than the point estimate
itself, such as "25 percent of Latino voters supported candidate Y, with a 95% confidence
interval of 0 to 50 percent."
Only demographers experienced in Voting Rights-related analysis and litigation can
appropriately advise your counsel and the District on how to interpret all of these factors when
evaluating their options. NDC is the demographic firm you need to get the best possible
evaluation of potential liability under this extremely unclear law.
NDC's CVRA Analysis Process
A polarized voting analysis can involve a quick review of a jurisdiction's most recent election
or elections,or an in-depth review of every possible local,county,and statewide candidate and
ballot measure election for the previous ten years. Under the CVRA, elections for the
@isdiction's own elected body carry the most weight, so NDC recommends that jurisdictions
interested in a polarized voting analysis look at just one or two of their own elections to get
an initial feel for the findings. If the results are unclear (which they are with some frequency,
given the imprecise nature of the statistical methods and relatively small datasets often
involved),or if the jurisdiction simply wishes to investigate more after hearing the initial report,
NDC welcomes the chance to work with the jurisdiction to analyze as many elections as
needed.This step by step approach provides the in-depth analysis the client needs to make its
decision,while only incurring the minimal costs required to complete the project.
Voting Rights Act vulnerability analysis references (specific jurisdiction names
withheld as these studies are done within the attorney-client privilege):
• Ms. Youstina Aziz, Mr. Kit Bobko, Mr. Steven Dorsey, and/or Mr. Craig Steele of
Richards, Watson and Gershon, 355 South Grand Avenue, 40th Floor, Los Angeles,
California 90071, (213) 626-8484.
• Mr. Michael E. Smith of Lozano Smith, 7404 North Spalding Ave., Fresno, CA 93720,
(559)431-5600,MSmith@lozanosmith.com.
• Ms. Marguerite Leoni, of Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni, 2350 Kerner
Boulevard, Suite 250, San Rafael, CA 94901, (415)634-6840,mleoni@nmgovlaw.com (or
ask for Mr. Chris Skinnell)
• Mr.John Ramirez, Rutan and Tucker, 611 Anton Boulevard, Suite 1400, Costa Mesa, CA
92626-1931, (714) 641-5100, jramirez@rutan.com (if not available, ask for Mr. Alan
Fenstermacher)
• Mr. Warrant Kinsler, Atkinson, Andelson, Loya, Ruud & Romo, 12800 Center Court
Drive, Suite 300, Cerritos, CA 90703, (562) 653-3424, WKinsler@aalrr.com (or ask for
David Soldani or Tiffany Tran).
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Potential Next Steps
After receiving and considering the demographic analysis and consulting with its counsel,
each jurisdiction faces three options:
1. Do nothing;
2. Prepare to make the change to by-district-area elections quickly if there is public
pressure to do so or if a legal demand letter arrives (to minimize legal and financial
exposure,without pre-emptively acting immediately);
3. Proactively change to by-district-area elections to enter the CVRA "safe harbor" and
avoid any potential legal liability under the CVRA.
If the jurisdiction decides to move to the CVRA "safe harbor" of by-district elections,NDC
is also the state's leading firm in the field of drawing and transitioning to by-district elections.
NDC has successfully guided over 150 clients moving from at-large to by-district and from-
district election systems,re-drawing existing districts, and in moving back from by-district to
at-large systems. No other firm can match NDC's extensive experience in this field.
NDC's Districting Process
The following information is provided for information and for use if a jurisdiction decides to
move to by-district elections. If the client decides not to move to by-district elections, the
work would end with the demographic analysis described above.
Technical Expertise
NDC's personnel are nationally recognized as leaders in the districting field, and are
responsible for numerous books and articles on the subject. NDC possesses all the hardware
and software necessary to the districting and redistricting needs of any jurisdiction, and its
personnel have extensive experience in performing graphics districting and redistricting work
as well as in developing databases for districting use.
The technical demands of a districting effort are high, and NDC is the undisputed leader in
this area. But far more important than technical expertise are the interpersonal understanding
and experience working with all parties in the process,including the public.
Public Involvement
NDC pioneered the "transparent districting" approach which involves the public at every
stage of the process. The company invented the "public participation kit" for public
participation in districting efforts, which many of the firm's competitors now attempt to
duplicate. Perhaps NDC's most valuable service is the firm's experience transforming often-
contentious and passionate debates on this difficult subject into thoughtful, constructive
discussions focused on the options and outcomes rather than individual personalities or
positions. NDC also has considerable experience working with translators in public forums
and providing materials in English and Spanish.
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Minority Group Outreach/Partnerships
U.S. Supreme Court decisions are constantly changing the rules regarding districting, "race-
based districting," and the establishment of districts focused on the electoral power of
"protected classes." It is crucial that the consultant work with the racial, ethnic, and other
community groups at the beginning of the process to welcome their ideas and develop the
appropriate expectations regarding minority representation prospects. No NDC local
districting or redistricting plans has ever been challenged in Court or by the Department of
Justice.
Openness
Any change in election systems can have momentous implications for the distribution of
political power in a jurisdiction and for access by groups and individuals to the governance
process. Not surprisingly, such changes often attract much public attention, sometimes
generate intense controversy, and may draw charges of manipulation and abuse of power.
Indeed, disputes over the form and substance of the process may often result in stalemate or
legal challenge.It is crucial,therefore,that the jurisdiction establish,at the beginning,a process
that is not only fair, but that is seen to be fair, to all contending groups and individuals.
Media Outreach
The firm's work has been widely praised in the media, and NDC has worked extensively on
background,off the record,and on the record with all types of press including radio,television,
newspaper, and new media.
Local Leadership
NDC views its role as an advisor and technical resource.The firm advises its clients,but every
project remains the client's project. NDC offers guidance based on its experience and
expertise, but ultimately the decisions are made by the jurisdiction itself. NDC welcomes the
chance to assist this project under the guidance and direction of the jurisdiction's elected
leadership, key staff members, and the entire community.
Impeccable References
All of NDC's former clients—without exception—can be contacted for references. The firm
has no embarrassing projects. All NDC's local districting and redistricting plans have been
accepted into law with a minimum of controversy.
Mr. Rick Haydon, City Manager, City of Santa Maria, 110 E. Cook Street, Santa Maria, CA
93454-5190. Phone: (805) 925-0951 ext. 2200. Email: rhaydon@cityofsantamaria.org
Ms. Pam Abel, Superintendent,Modesto City Schools,426 Locust Street,Modesto, CA
95351-2631. Phone: (209) 574-1616. Email: able.p@mcs4kids.com
Mr. Darrell Talbert, City Manager, City of Corona, 400 S Vicentia Avenue, Corona, CA
92882-2187. Phone: 951.279.3670. Email: Darrell.Talbert@ci.corona.ca.us
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Mr. Steve Carrigan, City Manager, City of Merced, 678 West 18th Street,Merced, CA 95340.
Phone: 209- 385-6834 Email: citymanager@cityofinerced.org
Mr. Devin Reif, Strategic Planning, City of Oakland,250 Frank H. Ogawa Plaza, Suite 3315,
Oakland, CA 94612. Phone: 510-238-3550 Email: DReiff@oaklandnet.com
Mr. David Silberman,Deputy County Counsel, San Mateo County, 400 County Center, 6th
Floor,Redwood City, CA 94063. Phone: 650-363-4749 Email: dsilberman@smcgov.org
Judge Hugh Rose (retired), Chairman, City of Modesto Districting Commission. 508 King
Richard Lane,Modesto, CA 95350. Phone (209) 522-0719. Email: hhrose@hotmail.com.
Ms. Lucinda Aja. City Clerk, City of Buckeye,Arizona. 100 N Apache Rd, Suite A,Buckeye,
AZ 85326. Phone (623) 349-6007. Fax (623) 349-6098. Email: laja@buckeyeaz.gov.
Proposed Scope of Work
Each level of work is a discrete and separate part of this proposal. As each level is complete,
NDC will consult with the client on the decision whether to proceed with the next level, skip
to a later stage o review, or to decide the review is complete. NDC will only proceed from
one level to the next on direction from the client. The client can end the project after any
level is complete, or the client can choose to skip levels as it wishes.
Level 1 - database of demographics & elections plus test District
maps
Task A: Create the demographic database
This database will include 2010 Census data on total population and voting age population
counts by race and ethnicity; California Statewide Database data on 2010 voter registration
and turnout by Spanish- and Asian-American surnames; either Statewide Database, or,if that
is not available in time, County Registrar current voter registration turnout records processed
by NDC to identify Spanish- and Asian-American surnames; American Community Survey
data on Citizens of Voting Age by race and ethnicity (also known as "eligible voters") from
the latest Census Bureau reports (five-year data from 2009-2013).
In 2011, jurisdictions and demographers could get Citizen Voting Age data (also referred to
as "eligible voter" data), broken down by race and ethnicity, from the California Statewide
Database (assuming the jurisdiction or its consultant necessary software and expertise). The
challenge today is that the Statewide Database data,posted in 2011,were processed using the
2005-2009 data from the American Community Survey. The Statewide Database data is now
significantly out of date: the Census Bureau has released two annual updates to the data, and
those updates included what the Census Bureau calls a "re-balancing" of the data using
statistical controls from the 2010 Census,instead of the 2000 Census statistical controls used
for the 2005-2009 data.NDC's research has found that the new data is more significantly more
accurate thanks both to being more up to date and to the greatly increased accuracy of the
updated statistical controls. The Statewide Database has no known plans to update its
American Community Survey data on Citizens of Voting Age by race and ethnicity (used by
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the 9'Circuit Federal Courts as the best count of"eligible voters") until the 2021 redistricting
cycle.
Task B: Elections Database
Task: NDC will compile a list of 2001 - 2015 election results for all Council elections; for
elections for overlapping school, county and state elections that involved "protected class"
candidates; and for measures placed on the ballot by the City. NDC will work with the City to
identify/confirm the ethnicity of the various candidates in these elections.
Task C: Test District Map(s)
Task: NDC will analyze whether it is possible to draw one or more majority-minority districts
based on each of the following demographic databases:
• 2012 and 2014 general election voter turnout by surname (or 2016, once it is available)
• 2012 and 2014 general election voter registration by surname (or 2016, once it is
available)
• Citizen Voting Age Population (2011-2015 Department of Justice Special Tabulation)
• Citizen Voting Age Population (2011-2015 American Community Survey)
• Voting Age Population (2010 Census)
• Total Population (2010 Census)
Level 1 Deliverables:
• Spreadsheet of District demographics in electronic and PDF format (NDC)
• Table listing elections, candidates, candidate ethnicity, and total votes (count and
percentage) for each election collected. The table will be accompanied by a summary
of which "protected class" candidates ran and whether they won or lost each
election. The client will receive the report in PDF format.
• Demographic data on test district(s) and PDF map of test districts.
Level 1 Timeline: Typically three weeks,but can be done faster if necessary.
Cost: $5,750 for the analysis and report and web- or phone-conference call(s) to discuss.
NDC is happy to attend any desired meetings/discussions in person,but that costs $2,000
for each day of in-person meeting(s).
Next Steps:
At the completion of the Level I, the client can decide whether or not to proceed with Level
II,to jump to a later project level, or to consider the project complete. NDC will not proceed
with any additional work beyond Level I without written direction from the client.
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Level II—Racially Polarized Voting Analysis
Task:Analysis of potential racially polarized voting patterns in key local and statewide
elections. This includes:
• An initial analysis of the City's two most recent Council elections;
• Potential analysis of additional city, school, county, and statewide elections involving
`protected class' candidates and/or related issues;
• Homogeneous precinct analysis of election results,if there are any homogeneous
precincts in the City;
• Ecological Regression analysis of election results.
Deliverables: List of the elections analyzed, scattergram of election data, and tables of
regression and homogeneous precinct analysis data.
Cost: For the analysis and report and web- or phone-conference call(s) to discuss: $1,500
per election analyzed (most often only two are analyzed, but the number can increase
significantly depending on the client's interest and the level of precision of the statistical
analysis possible in the client jurisdiction). NDC is happy to attend any desired meetings/
discussions in person,but that costs $2,000 for each day of in-person meeting(s).
Timeline: three weeks (but can be done faster if necessary).
Next Steps:
At the completion of the Level II work, the client can decide whether or not to proceed with
Level III, to jump to a later project level, or to consider the project complete. NDC will not
proceed with any additional work beyond Level 11 without written direction from the client.
Level III - Creating Districts (if necessary)
To provide the flexibility to meet the needs of the client if it decides to move to by-district-
area elections,NDC offers a full menu of options:
Basic Districting Project Elements
Includes all of the services listed below:................................................................................$22,500
• Project Setup and coordination:
o Development of redistricting database including Census and California Statewide
Database data;
o Incorporation of any Geographic Information System (GIS) data that the
District wishes to include and provides (often including school locations; school
attendance areas;important local landmarks; or local neighborhood boundaries);
o Initial discussion with key staff and/or Council members about demographics,
communities of interest, schedule and criteria;
o Any phone- or web-conference calls to discussion the project's progress or
answer any Council, staff or media questions that may arise;
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• Plan Development:
o Creating of 2 to 4 initial draft maps for Council and public consideration;
o Analysis and preparation for Council consideration of all whole or partial plans
submitted by the public;
o Conversion of all maps and reports to web-friendly versions for online posting;
o Online posting of all maps to an interactive website for detailed review;
o Any requested additional maps and/or map revisions requested;
• Plan Presentation:
o Presentations at Council meetings and/or public forums by phone- or web-
conference (or in person for the "in person presentation" fee listed under
"optional elements" below);
• Work with the County Registrar of Voters to implement the final adopted plan.
Optional Districting Project Elements
Selected at the client's discretion:
• In-person presentation at additional Council meetings, facilitation of
public forum(s), and/or any other requested meetings;.................................................$2,000
• Preparation and processing of paper,PDF and Excel-based "public participation
kits" (paper kits that allow the public to draw and submit their own plans)...............$4,000
• Creation,hosting, and updating of an NDC--managed project information
website (if the client does not wish to manage a project website as part
ofits existing website). ........................................................................................................$4,500
• Hosting,managing and processing submitted plans for an online interactive
system that allows public to draw and submit proposed districting plans
through a standard web browser......................................................................................$13,500
• Spanish translation of project-related materials..................................................$125 per page
Stated prices include all travel,printing (except public participation kits and any large-plot
maps), and other anticipated expenses.
Timeline: Level III (Creating Districts) timeline will be established in consultation with the
client.This Level ideally has three to nine months available, but can be done faster when
necessary.
Other Potential Project-Related Expenses:
The only anticipated additional districting expenses would be any site or staff costs for
conducting the community forums; and the cost of printing or copying paper copies of the
"Public Participation Kit." In NDC's experience, most public participants will download and
print the Kits in their own homes or offices.
Additional Analysis
NDC is happy to assist with any additional analysis that the client requests at our standard
hourly rates:
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NDCNational Demographics Corporation
Principal (Dr. Douglas Johnson) ..........$200 per hour
Vice President (Justin Levitt).................$155 per hour
Senior Analyst..........................................$75 per hour
Analyst / Clerical.....................................$50 per hour
Dr.Johnson is also available for deposition and/or testimony work if needed, at$250 per
hour.
If the City decides to move to by-district elections,NDC is of course willing and able to
assist with that process as well.
Requested Payment terms:
NDC requests that one-half payment be made at project start and one-half at the conclusion.
Conclusion
Since its founding NDC has been the preeminent company in the nation devoted to local
election systems. To summarize:
• NDC, founded in 1979,has a demonstrated record of financial solvency.
• NDC's hardware and software resources were specially designed and acquired for
election-related demographic analysis.
• NDC's highly respected personnel have impeccable credentials in each aspect of the
districting and redistricting processes.
• NDC's suggested approach has been tested in many jurisdictions.
• Any NDC client can be contacted for testimonials and reference.
• NDC has more experience in the field of municipal election demographics than any
other company.
• NDC has demonstrated experience over many years in working with the press and media
on local election system issues.
• NDC possesses fully up-to-date and highly effective geographic retrieval systems with
applications specifically designed for election-related demographic analysis.
It should be clear that NDC has all of the resources of experience, technical expertise, and
legal/political know-how to assist the City in its current effort. NDC looks forward to the
opportunity to work with the City on this project.
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NDCNational Demographics Corporation
Proposal Acceptance
The terms of this proposal are available for 45 calendar days from its delivery to you. In
most situations,NDC is open to extending that period of time to meet any particular needs
of your jurisdiction.
NDC prides ourselves on tailoring each project to the needs and goals of each individual
client. NDC is open to any feedback, concerns,requests,or changes regarding this proposal.
If,however,it is acceptable in its current form,then NDC welcomes the opportunity to
begin work as soon as possible.
If your jurisdiction has specific contract and/or letter of agreement language you prefer to
use,please provide it and ignore the signature block below. If you prefer,simply sign two
copies of this proposal in the signature block below and return them to NDC. Once signed
by NDC,one copy will be returned to you.Thank you.
For National Demographics Corporation For the City of Lake Elsinor
Douglas Johnson,President
Date Date
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NDCNational Demographics Corporation
Clients moved or moving from at-large to by-district elections
Counties
San Mateo
Cities
Apple Valley Glendale (AZ) Rancho Cucamonga
Anaheim Hemet Redlands
Banning Hesperia Reedley
Bellflower Highland Riverbank
Buckeye King City San Marcos
Buena Park Los Banos Sanger
Ceres Madera Santa Barbara
Chino Menifee Surprise
Compton Merced Tulare
Corona Mesa (AZ) Turlock
Eastvale Modesto Victorville
El Cajon Moreno Valley Visalia
Escondido Palmdale Whittier
Firebaugh Parlier Wildomar
Fowler Pasadena Yucaipa
Fullerton Peoria (AZ)
Community College Districts
Antelope Valley Rancho Santiago
Cuesta San Diego
Glendale Santa Clarita
Grossmont-Cuyamaca Sierra
MiraCosta Southwestern
Water, Irrigation & Conservation Districts Alta Irrigation
Fresno Irrigation San Bernardino Water
Imperial Irrigation District Santa Clara Valley Water
Mojave Water Agency Upper San Gabriel Valley
Palmdale Water Western Municipal Water
Rowland Water Winton Water
Other Special Districts
Jurupa Community Service District Tulare Health Care District
Kings River Conservation District Westside Community Health Care District
School Districts
Alpine Union Burton Elementary Cardiff Elementary
Alpine Union Elementary Cajon Valley Union Carlsbad Unified
Alta Vista Cajon Valley Union Caruthers
Bakersfield City Schools Elementary Cayucas
Bonsall Union Calistoga Joint Unified Centinela Valley
Elementary Capistrano Unified Central Unified
Borrego Springs Unified Capistrano Unified Centralia Elementary
Buena Park Elementary School District Chula Vista Elementary
nj_��
NDCNational Demographics Corporation
Clients moved or moving from at-large to by-district elections
Clay Elementary Kings River Rancho Santa Fe
Clovis Unified Kingsburg Elementary Elementary
Coalinga-Huron Kingsburg High Richland School District
Coronado Unified La Mesa-Spring Valley Riverbank
Dehesa Elementary Lake Elsinore Riverdale Unified
Del Mar Union Lakeside Union Salida Union
Elementary Elementary San Dieguito Union High
Dinuba Unified Lakeside Union School San Marcos Unified
Eastern Sierra Unified Lancaster Elementary San Pasqual Union
Eastside Union Lawndale Elementary Elementary
Elementary Lemon Grove San Ysidro Elementary
Encinitas Union Elementary Santee Elementary
Elementary Lindsay Unified Selma Unified
Escalon Unified Lucia Mar Solana Beach Elementary
Escondido Union Madera Unified South Bay Union
Elementary Magnolia Elementary Spencer Valley
Escondido Union High Merced Union High Elementary
Exeter Elementary School District Strathmore Elementary
Exeter High Modesto City Schools Sundale Union
Exeter Unified Modoc Unified Elementary
Fallbrook Union Monson Soltana Sweetwater Union High
Elementary Morgan Hill Unified Tulare City Elementary
Fallbrook Union High Mountain Empire Tulare City High
Firebaugh-Las Deltas Unified Tulelake
Unified Napa Valley Unified Turlock Unified
Fresno Unified National Elementary Twin Rivers Unified
Fullerton Union High Newhall Elementary Vallecitos Elementary
Glendale Unified Newman Crows Landing Valley Center Pauma
Greenfield Oak Grove Elementary Unified
Grossmont Union High School District Visalia Unified
Hughson Unified Oceanside Unified Vista Unified
Jamul-Dulzura Union Pacific Union Walnut Valley Water
Elementary Panama Buena Vista Warner Unified
Julian Union Elementary Pasadena Unified Washington Union
Julian Union High Pixley Union Waterford Union
Kerman Unified Pleasant View Whittier Union High
Kern High Pomona Unified Woodlake Union
Keyes Union Porterville
Kings Canyon Unified Poway Unified
School District Ramona Unified
Douglas Mark Johnson
P.O. Box 5271 mobile: (310) 200-2058
Glendale, CA 91221 office: (909) 624-1442
djohnson@NDCresearch.com fax: (818) 254-1221
Employment
President,National Demographics Corporation, 2006—present.
Senior Analyst,National Demographics Corporation,2001 —2006.
Fellow,Rose Institute of State and Local Government, 2001 —present.
Project Manager and Senior Manager at three internet startup companies, 1999 - 2001.
U.S. Representative Stephen Horn,Legislative Director and System Manager. 1993— 1997.
Coro Foundation, Fellowship in Public Affairs. 1992— 1993.
Rose Institute for State and Local Government, Student Manager. 1989— 1992.
Education
Claremont Graduate University, Ph.D. in Political Science,2015. Dissertation: "Independent
Redistricting Commissions: Hopes and Lessons Learned."
UCLA Anderson Graduate School of Management,MBA, 1999.
Claremont McKenna College,BA in Government (Political Science), 1992.
Academic Honors
Graduated Cum Laude from Claremont McKenna College.
Phi Beta Kappa. Philip Roland Prize for Excellence in Public Policy.
Publications and Articles
Christian Science Monitor"Let the public help draw voting districts," October 25, 2013.
New York Times, "The Case for Open Primaries," February 19, 2009.
Los Angeles Times Opinion Articles:
"A neighbor's help on redistricting"June 24, 2007.
"A Trojan horse primary for the GOP" February 25, 2007.
"Where a porn palace stood" (article on redevelopment),July 30, 2006.
Fresno Bee Opinion Article: "The Poison Handshake"June 15, 2004.
Redistricting in America. Rose Institute of State and Local Government, 2010.
Restoring the Competitive Edge: California's Need for Redistricting Reform and the Likely
Impact of Proposition 77. Rose Institute of State and Local Government,2005.
"Competitive Districts in California" Rose Institute of State and Local Government, 2005.
Latinos and Redistricting: "Californios For Fair Representation" and California Redistricting in
the 1980s. Rose Institute of State and Local Government, 1991.
Speaker or Panelist
California School Board Association Annual Education Conference panelist: "The California
Voting Rights Act: What Board Members Must Know." December 4, 2015.
Associated Cities of California—Orange County, Keynote Speaker,Newly Elected Officials'
Reception and Dinner, "The California Voting Rights Act,"January 29,2015.
California League of Cities, City Manager Department,2015 Department Meeting: "Opportunity to
Engage Residents: The California Voting Rights Act."January 29, 2015.
California League of Cities, City Clerk Department, 2014 Annual Meeting: "Whose Line Is It
Anyway: Making the transition from at-large to by-district elections." September 3,2014.
National Conference of State Legislatures, Redistricting and Elections Standing Committee: 2007
Spring Forum, "The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commissions' experiences with the
first-ever independent redistricting."
National Conference of State Legislatures, Redistricting and Elections Standing Committee: 2008
Spring Forum, "Communities of Interest In Redistricting: A Practical Guide."
Douglas Mark Johnson
National Conference of State Legislatures, Redistricting and Elections Standing Committee: 2009
Fall Forum, "The Key to Successful Redistricting."
National Conference of State Legislatures, Redistricting and Elections Standing Committee: 2010
Spring Forum, "Communities of Interest in Redistricting:A key to drawing 2011 plans (and for
their defense)."
National Conference of State Legislatures, Redistricting and Elections Standing Committee: 2011
Winter Forum, "Citizen Voting Age Data from a line-drawer's viewpoint."
Luncheon Keynote Speaker, Santa Barbara's Channel Cities Club, "California's next experiment:
independent,public redistricting,"January 18, 2011.
Annual Conference,Arizona League of Cities and Towns, Presenter at "Redistricting Law and the
Voting Rights Act:What It Means for Your City or Town in 2011," August 25, 2010.
Redistricting,The 2010 Census, and Your Budget, Sponsored by the Rose Institute of State and
Local Government, California League of Cities, October 15, 2009.
Arizona Election Law 2010 Continuing Legal Education Conference, "Communities of interest and
technology in redistricting," sponsored by the Arizona State Bar Association,March 2010
California's New Independent Redistricting Commission, sponsored by the Irvine Foundation and
the California Redistricting Collaborative,December 15, 2009
Tribal Association of Sovereign Indian Nations (TASIN) Legislative Day 2009, "The 2010 Census
and 2011 Redistricting in California," December 2, 2009.
California School Board Association, "Litigation Issues and the California Voting Rights Act,"
December 4, 2009.
California Latino School Boards Association, "Introduction to the California Voting Rights Act,"
August 20, 2009.
Building a National Reform Movement, Salt Lake City, Utah,2006, conference on redistricting
reform hosted by the League of Women Voters, Campaign Legal Center, and The Council for
Excellence in Government
Texas Tech University, "A Symposium on Redistricting,"May, 2006
California League of Cities, "Introduction to the California Voting Rights Act."
Voices of Reform, a project of the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco: multiple forums on
redistricting and / or term limits, 2006—2007
Classroom speaker at Pepperdine University, the University of La Verne,Pomona College and
Claremont McKenna College
Justin Mark Levitt
P.O. Box 5271 mobile: (480) 390-7480
Glendale, CA 91221 office: (818) 254-1221
jlevitt@NDCresearch.com fax: (818) 254-1221
Employment
Vice-President,National Demographics Corporation, 2012—present.
Senior Analyst,National Demographics Corporation,2003—2011.
Instructor in Political Science,University of California, San Diego, 2012—present.
Graduate Research Fellow, Center for US-Mexico Studies, 2010—present.
Graduate Research Fellow,University of California, San Diego,2008—2010 and 2013—2014.
Jesse M. Unruh California Assembly Fellow. 2006—2007.
Rose Institute for State and Local Government, Student Manager. 2005—2006.
Education
University of California, San Diego, Ph.D. Political Science,2016. Dissertation title: "The Impact
of Geographic Patterns on Tradeoffs in Redistricting."
Claremont McKenna College,BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE),2006.
Academic Honors
California Studies Fellow,University of California, San Diego, 2007—2009
Graduated Cum Laude from Claremont McKenna College.
Publications and Conference Presentations
Settle,Jamie, Robert Bond, and Justin Levitt. 2011. "The Social Origins of Adult Political
Behavior." American Politics Research: 39 (2). 239-263
Miller, Kenneth and Justin Levitt. 2007. "The San Joaquin Valley." In The New Political
Geography of California. Eds. Frederick Douzet,Thad Kousser, and Kenneth Miller. Berkeley:
Institute of Government Studies.
"The Political Geography of Tradeoffs in Redistricting" Paper presented at the State Politics and
Policy Conference,Iowa City, IA, 2013
Getting Wlhat You rant.A Bargaining Approach to Fair Division in Redistricting. Paper presented at the
"Challenging Urban Borders : the geopolitics of immigration and segregation"workshop,
Berkeley, CA,2013 and the State Politics and Policy Conference,Houston,TX, 2012
"An Atlas of Public Health in Mexico" (with Alberto Diaz Cayeros). Paper presented at the
Hewlett Foundation Conference on Public Health,Mexico City,DF. 2012
"Remoteness and the Territoriality of Public Health" (with Alberto Diaz Cayeros).
Paper presented at the American Political Science Association conference, Seattle,WA. 2011
"Initiatives as revealed preferences"
Paper presented at the American Political Science Association conference, Seattle,WA. 2011
`No Se Puede:Latino Politicallncorporation in Phoenix.". Paper Presented at the New Political
Geography of California conference,Berkeley, CA.,2009
Justin Mark Levitt
`Political Change in the Central Valley': Paper Presented at the Western Political Science
Association conference,Las Vegas,NV.,2007
Working Papers
Hill, Seth,Thad Kousser,Alex Hughes, and Justin Levitt. ND. "How Competitiveness Shapes
Infrequent Primary Voters Response to Deceiving a GOTV Mailer."
Diaz-Cayeros,Alberto and Justin Levitt. ND. "Remoteness and the Territoriality of Public Health."
Levitt,Justin. ND. "Getting Wlhat You Wlant.A Bargaining Approach to Fair Division in Commission-
led Redistricting."
Teaching Experience
California State University, Long Beach, Department of Political Science
Adjunct Professor—POSC 327 (Urban Politics) Spring 2016-Present
Adjunct Professor—POSC 229 (Cases in Policy Analysis) Present
Adjunct Professor—POSC 412 (Law and Social Change) Spring 2016-Present
Adjunct ProfessorPOSC 399 (California Politics Short Course) Present
University of California, San Diego, Department of Political Science
Co-Instructor—UPS 170 (Regional Governance Reconsidered) Spring 2015
Instructor—Poll 100A (The Presidency) Fall 2014
Instructor—Poll 160AA (Introduction to Public Policy Analysis) Fall 2013
Instructor—Poll 10 (Introduction to American Politics) Summer 2013