HomeMy WebLinkAbout0001_2_Initiative Report - Exhibit A
REPORT PURSUANT TO STATE ELECTIONS CODE SECTION 9212 ON
THE PROPOSED “ALBERHILL VILLAGES INITIATIVE”
JANUARY 12, 2017
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1. Introduction
1.1 Purpose of the Report
This Report evaluates the potential impacts of a proposed initiative that has qualified to be
placed on the ballot as part of a special election. The initiative is entitled “initiative measure to
be submitted to the voters” and indicates that it should be cited as the “Alberhill Villages
Initiative” (the “Initiative”). The full text of the Initiative is available for public inspection as the
Lake Elsinore City Clerk’s Office.
If adopted by a simple majority of voters, the Initiative would replace the existing Alberhill
Villages Specific Plan adopted by the City Council of the City of Lake Elsinore on June 14, 2016
(the “Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan”). The Initiative would also amend the City’s
General Plan, the Alberhill Ranch Specific Plan, the Murdock Alberhill Ranch Specific Plan, and
the City’s Zoning Map.
1.2 Procedural Background of the Alberhill Villages Initiative
The California Elections Code outlines a Six-Step Initiative Process summarized below.
Step Task Date
Step 1 Notice of Intent to Circulate Petition June 10, 2016
Step 2 Ballot Title & Summary June 27, 2016
Step 3 Publication and/or Posting July 1, 2016
Step 4 Circulation of Petition October 11, 2016 - Submitted
October 12, 2016 - Accepted
Step 5 Examination and Verification of Signatures November 23, 2016
Step 6 City Council Accepts Certification
& Presented with Options:
Adopt Initiative
Order Special Election
Order Report
December 13, 2016
1.3 Authorization for the Report
When a proposed initiative is circulated and qualifies for the ballot, Section 9212 of the
California Elections Code (“Section 9212”) authorizes the City Council to request a report
regarding the initiative’s potential impacts. Section 9212(a) and (b) require that the report must
be submitted “no later than 30 days after the City Clerk certifies to the City Council that the
proposed initiative has qualified for the ballot.”
On December 13, 2016, the Lake Elsinore City Clerk certified that the Initiative had qualified for
the ballot, at which time the Lake Elsinore City Council directed staff to prepare a report on the
Alberhill Villages Initiative pursuant to Section 9212 (the “Report”).
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1.4 Organization of the Report
The remainder of this Report is organized as follows:
Section 2 describes the proposed Initiative and its relationship to the Adopted
Aberhill Villages Specific Plan, including a comparison summary of key
provisions. This section also describes the consistency of the Initiative with the
City’s existing, approved documents: 1) General Plan; 2) the Adopted Alberhill
Villages Specific Plan, and 3) the Zoning Ordinance and the future entitlement
process.
Section 3 is the Fiscal Impact Analysis evaluating the fiscal impacts of the
Alberhill Villages Initiative and comparison to the Adopted Alberhill Villages
Specific Plan.
2. The Initiative and the Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan
2.1 Overview
The Alberhill Villages Initiative and the Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan have striking
similarities, especially as to the primary proposed land use plans. There are, however,
significant differences, particularly with respect to developer financial responsibilities, plan
implementation and opportunities for public participation, safeguards to fund necessary police,
fire, paramedic and other municipal services, and land use and zoning inconsistencies.
The comparison is important because:
if the Alberhill Villages Initiative is approved it will replace the Adopted Alberhill Villages
Specific Plan, but.
if the Alberhill Villages Initiative is NOT approved, the Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific
Plan will remain in place.
Consequently, understanding the similarities and the differences is necessary in evaluating the
potential impacts of the Initiative.
A comparison of key features is summarized in the sections that follow.
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2.2 The Alberhill Villages Project
Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan Alberhill Villages Initiative
+/- 1375 acres
+/- 1400 acres
Moves boundaries of existing Specific Plans to
add 9.09 acre parcel from Alberhill Ranch
Specific Plan and 16.7 acre parcel from
Murdock Alberhill Specific Plan
6 phases, 20-30 year build-out 6 phases, 20-30 year build-out
Mining allowed as interim use phased out as
development occurs; no new manufacturing
uses permitted
Mining allowed as interim use phased out as
development occurs; M-3 Zoning allows heavy
industrial and manufacturing uses
Estimated 27,000 population Estimated 27,000 population
The Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan and the Alberhill Villages Initiative both allow the
phased transition from existing mining operations to future development as mineral resources
are fully extracted. The Initiative would add approximately 25 acres to the Adopted Alberhill
Villages Specific Plan area. Buildout within Alberhill Villages is projected to occur in six phases
over the next 20 to 30 years with an estimated population of approximately 27,000 people.
2.3 Alberhill Villages Land Uses
The Adopted Alberhill Villages specific Plan and the Alberhill Villages Initiative both propose a
Master Planned Community consisting of single family and multi-family residential uses as well
as non-residential uses including civic/institutional, commercial/retail, professional office/medical
and entertainment uses; a university campus or similar educational institution; and supporting
uses including schools, parks, places of religious assembly and open space. Both include a
University Town Center with more than 1,300,000 square feet of retail/community space, and
medical/office development. Both provide a 63.1 acre site for a university or similar educational
institution, an 850 student capacity elementary school on a 12-acre site, and approximately 163
acres of open space.
Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan Alberhill Villages Initiative
8,024 residential units 8,244 residential units
+/- 3.8 million SF nonresidential, including
retail, commercial, professional office
+/- 4.0 million SF nonresidential, including
retail, commercial, professional office
63 acre site for university or similar uses 63 acre site for university or similar uses
elementary school site elementary school site
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As illustrated on the Land Use Map, the primary Land Use Plan in the Initiative is nearly
identical to the Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan. There are only two notable differences.
First, the additional 25.79 acres in the Alberhill Villages Initiative which are not included in the
Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan. Second, the 500 foot wide wildlife corridor along the
western boundary of the Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan. The Initiative would allow an
additional 220 residential units, increase nonresidential development from 3,810,300 square
feet to 4,007,000 square feet; and eliminate 49 acres of natural or enhanced open space areas.
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2.4 New Development and Mining
The Alberhill Villages Initiative allows new residential development to be developed 300 feet
from the existing mining operation which includes a rock crushing plant, conveyor system, sand
plant and excavation activities without adequate mitigation measure to address the negative
impacts such as noise, dust, light and glare. The Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan
imposes a 1,500 foot setback between the existing mining operations and new residential
development.
Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan Alberhill Villages Initiative
New development must be at least 1,500 feet
from existing mining operations
New development can occur 300 feet from
existing mining operation
2.5 Open Space and Parks
The Initiative shifts the responsibility to build a 45.9 acre sports park to the City of Lake Elsinore
and provides that the land automatically reverts back to the developer if the City does not
complete the sports park improvements within 5 years of the developer’s revocable dedication.
Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan Alberhill Villages Initiative
199 acres natural or enhanced open space
with multi-use trails
163 acres natural or enhanced open space
with multi-use trails
36.8 acre Lakeside park alongside 2 lakes
totaling 39.6 acres
36.8 acre Lakeside park alongside 2 lakes
totaling 39.6 acres
45.9 acre turn-key sports park fully improved
by developer at developer’s cost and
dedicated to the City permanently
45.9 acre sports park site dedicated by
developer with costs of park improvements to
be paid by City with forfeiture provision
providing for park property to revert to
developer if City does not complete park
improvements at city costs within 5 years
2.6 Police, Fire and Paramedic Services.
The Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan requires development within the Specific Plan area
to participate in a City-wide public safety services financing district to provide police, fire and
paramedic services. This is a requirement of all new development in the City of Lake Elsinore
and is implemented prior to new construction and sale of individual lots to ensure that all future
property owners are treated equally. The Initiative eliminates this requirement. However, the
Initiative recognizes the inherent shortfall in revenues to adequately provide public safety
services to new residences and proposes to fill this gap by requiring a certain ratio of
commercial development to residential development as the project is built out. The Initiative
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allows the developer to opt out of the lock -step commercial development requirements and
voluntarily participate in a public safety financing district, but provides no methodology as to how
this “transition” could be implemented without creating disparities between future property
owners. The Initiative similarly does not include any calculations supporting the assumption that
commercial development would generate sufficient general fund revenues that could be used
for public safety or that any new financing district could meet those needs.
Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan Alberhill Villages Initiative
New development must pay fair share and
participate in citywide public safety services
district to provide police, fire and paramedic
services
Eliminates the requirement to participate in
public safety financing districts
2.7 Roads and Traffic.
Prior to approval of the first Phased Development Plan, the adopted Alberhill Villages Specific
Plan requires completion of a traffic impact analysis evaluating cumulative impacts of the
Alberhill Villages project on regional transportation facilities within the City’s sphere of influence
and a Phased Road Improvement Plan to ensure that impacts of Alberhill Villages on the
regional road network are mitigated. The Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan also requires
a site-specific traffic studies for each phase of development. These traffic analyses are required
as part of the application and approval process for development approvals and subject to public
review. The Alberhill Initiative provides for traffic studies periodically in order to assess “fair
share” obligations as determined by the City and the developer without public participation.
Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan Alberhill Villages Initiative
Requires Traffic Impact Analysis conducted
with every Phased Development Plan as part
of Noticed Public hearing at Planning
Commission and City Council
Traffic Study for administrative review only at
periodic stages of development
Coordinate with County Transportation and
WRCOG
No public input
2.8 Public Participation.
The Alberhill Villages Initiative reduces the opportunity for public participation in future land use
entitlements by eliminating City Council review and approval at noticed public hearings. The
Initiative provides City staff the “authority and the obligation” to approve Phased Development
Plans for each of six project phases as well as Design Review and detailed Site Plans that are
consistent with the Initiative. The Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan establishes a
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traditional land use regulatory process with noticed public hearings at the Planning Commission
and City Council with maximum opportunities for public participation throughout the
development process.
Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan Alberhill Villages Initiative
All Phased Development Plans to be
considered at noticed public hearing before
the Planning Commission and City Council
All Phased development Plans and Design
Review subject to staff review only
Design Review also requires Planning
Commission and City Council approval with
public participation
No public participation
2.9 Alberhill Villages, Zoning and Consistency with the City’s General Plan.
Every City in California is required to have a comprehensive, long-term General Plan for the
physical development of the community. The General Plan addresses all aspects of
development, including housing, traffic, natural resources, open space, safety, land use and
public facilities. Under California Planning and Zoning Laws, all land use approvals must be
consistent with a City’s General Plan. For this reason, the general plan has been called the
“constitution for all future development.
Consistent with their adopted General Plans, cities may adopt specific plans and zoning
ordinances to regulate land use and development. A specific plan is a comprehensive plan
limited to a specified geographic area. A specific plan must contain details relating to land uses
and major infrastructure. Zoning is the division of the community into land use districts with
specified development standards. The fundamental principle in planning and land use
regulation is the consistency doctrine – the concept that all planning and zoning decisions and
development projects must be consistent with the General Plan. It is well settled that initiative
measures must achieve such consistency.
The City of Lake Elsinore’s General Plan designates the Alberhill Villages area as the Adopted
Alberhill Villages Specific Plan with an “extractive overlay” to permit the exis ting mine to
continue operations. The Alberhill Villages Initiative amends several elements of the City’s
General Plan and substitutes the Initiative’s version of the specific plan as the applicable land
use designation for the site.
The Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan contains all of the land use regulations for the
Alberhill Villages project area. The City’s Official Zoning Map designates the property as
“Alberhill Villages Specific Plan.” Land uses include single and multi-family residential uses and
nonresidential and mixed use designations for office, commercial, and institutional uses. Mining
operations are permitted as an interim use in the Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan and
consistent with the Extractive Overly designation in the City’s General Plan.
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The Alberhill Villages Initiative would amend the City’s Zoning Ordinance and Zoning Map to
change the existing zoning from “Alberhill Villages Specific Plan” to “M-3” (Mineral Resources
and Related Manufacturing). The M-3 zoning designation does not restrict development to pre-
existing mining operations. M-3 zoning allows intensive manufacturing and industrial uses such
as building materials manufacture and assembly, machinery manufacture, motor and generator
manufacture, paint and paper products manufacture, and manufacturing, assembling,
compounding, packaging, and processing of cosmetics, drugs, and pharmaceuticals.
Existing zoning Initiative Zoning
The Alberhill Villages Initiative’s proposed M-3 zoning is inconsistent with the City’s adopted
General Plan and the Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan. It is also inconsistent with the
proposed Alberhill Villages Initiative Specific Plan and creates conflicting regulation and
potentially inconsistent and incompatible land uses. By adopting this “dual” zoning of M-3 and
the proposed Alberhill Villages Specific Plan, the Initiative creates an internal inconsistency that
violates California’s planning and zoning laws.
2.10 Future Development Entitlement Process
A specific plan approved by initiative avoids the City’s normal land use regulatory process and
does not have to comply with the environmental review requirements imposed on traditional
land use entitlements. A specific plan approved by initiative is rigid and inflexible and cannot be
later amended or refined during the 20 to 30 year projected build-out without a future election
and majority vote of the people. The Initiative includes a special exception to this rule
purporting to allow only the developer a special right to request changes.
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In contrast, The Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan was approved through the traditional
land use entitlement process which includes review and analysis by City professional staff and
consultants, preparation of an Environmental Impact Report analyzing potential environmental
impacts and incorporating appropriate mitigation measures, consideration and recommendation
by the City’s Planning Commission at a noticed public hearing , and final review and approval by
the City Council at a noticed public hearing. Public participation is key in the environmental
review and public hearing process. The Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan may not be
flawless and it may become outdated over the long build-out of the project, but because it was
adopted through the traditional land use regulatory process from the start, it is more nimble and
can be amended and refined to eliminate ambiguities and respond to changing needs,
technologies and market demands without requiring a special election of the voters. The City
and any landowner within the boundaries of the Adopted Alberhilll Villages Specific Plan can
apply for amendment at any time during the build-out of the project. Public participation is
guaranteed in that process.
3. Fiscal Impact Analysis
The Fiscal Impact Analysis prepared by Development Management Group, Inc. is attached as
Exhibit A.
EXHIBIT A
Development Management Group, Inc.
economic development fiscal & economic analysis development management
41-625 Eclectic Street, Suite D-2 Palm Desert, CA 92260
Office: (760) 346-8820 Mobile: (760) 272-9136 Fax:(760) 346-8887
michael@dmgeconomics.com www.dmgeconomics.com
FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
ALBERHILL VILLAGES SPECIFIC PLAN
Comparison of:
City of Lake Elsinore Adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan
and
Alberhill Villages Initiative
Completed for:
Lake Elsinore, California
Final Report
January 12, 2017
Development Management Group, Inc.
economic development fiscal & economic analysis development management
____________________________________________________________________________________
41-625 Eclectic Street, Suite D-2 Palm Desert, CA 92260
Office: (760) 346-8820 Mobile: (760) 272-9136 Fax:(760) 346-8887
michael@dmgeconomics.com www.dmgeconomics.com
January 12, 2017
Mr. Grant Yates, City Manager
City of Lake Elsinore, California
130 South Main Street
Lake Elsinore, CA 92530
RE: SUMMARY LETTER: FISCAL IMPACT REPORT: ALBERHILL VILLAGES INIATIVE
Dear Mr. Yates:
On behalf of Development Management Group, Inc. (DMG, Inc.), thank you for the opportunity to complete a Fiscal
Impact Analysis of the Alberhill Villages Initiative. By way of background, Alberhill Villages is an approved Specific
Plan community that (at build-out) may contain as many as 8,244 residential units and about 4.07 million square feet of
commercial (retail, office, hotel, institutional/educational, school and places of worship).
In presenting this Fiscal Impact Analysis, we have developed and seven (7) models for which to compare and contrast
phasing and revenue streams for which to pay for essential municipal services. Below is a brief description
Model 1: Static Model based on concept that the entire Alberhill Villages development exists today (Fiscal Year 16/17)
for purposes of providing a baseline and understanding in current dollars.
Model 2: Alberhill Villages Initiative whereby the City would not receive any funding under CFD 2015-1 or 2015-2 and
the City is NOT financially responsible for the development of the sports park element.
Model 3: Alberhill Villages Initiative whereby the City would not receive any funding under CFD 2015-1 or 2015-2 and
the City IS financially responsible for the development of the sports park element.
Model 4: Alberhill Villages Initiative whereby the City DOES receive funding from CFD 2015-1 and CFD 2015-2 but is
NOT financially responsible for the development of the sports park element.
Model 5: DMG, Inc. Projected Phasing whereby the City would not receive any funding under CFD 2015-1 or 2015-2 and
the City is NOT financially responsible for the development of the sports park element.
Model 6: DMG, Inc. Projected Phasing whereby the City would not receive any funding under CFD 2015-1 or 2015-2 and
the City IS financially responsible for the development of the sports park element.
Model 7: DMG, Inc. Projected Phasing whereby the City DOES receive funding from CFD 2015-1 and CFD 2015-2 but is
NOT financially responsible for the development of the sports park element.
Yates, Grant
Final Report: Fiscal Impact Analysis Alberhill Villages Initiative
January 12, 2017
Page 2 of 2
At current, there are no scenarios whereby the residents of the City of Lake Elsinore will have protection from sharing the
burden of Alberhill Villages developed. If the Alberhill Villages Initiative is passed, it is likely that the residents of the
City of Lake Elsinore (outside of Alberhill Villages) will be responsible for an aggregate deficit of between $187.5
million and $242.9 million over a twenty year period.
There is one scenario in which the City of Lake Elsinore may have the ability to mitigate fiscal costs to its residents. In
Model 7, the aggregate deficit to the City of Lake Elsinore over the first twenty (20) years is "only" $33.8 million. This
particular scenario provides the ability for the City to work with residents in an effort to insure that municipal service
costs are in balance with revenues from residents of Alberhill Villages. This model is based on the City of Lake Elsinore
approved Alberhill Villages Specific Plan.
Based on the calculations described above and contained in the attached exhibits, Development Management Group, Inc.
(DMG Economics) cautions the City of Lake Elsinore and its residents that the passage of the Alberhill Villages Initiative
would severely and irreparably impact the ability for the City of Lake Elsinore to provide even the most basic of public
safety (police and fire) services to the community as a whole. Below is a synopsis of Models 1-7 as previously described:
Synopsis of Models 1-7
# Name Year 1 Surplus/Deficit Years 1-20 Aggregate Surplus (Deficit)
1A Static- NO CFD Revenue ($10,673,143) N/A
1B Static- With CFD Revenue ($2,603,293) N/A
2 Initiative NO CFD / NO City Paid Sports Park ($633) ($187,550,579)
3 Initiative NO CFD / City Paid Sports Park ($2,770,633) ($242,950,579)
4 Initiative With CFD / NO CityPaid Sports Park $225,538 ($34,709,730)
5 DMG Phasing-NO CFD/ NO City Paid Sports Park ($409,868) ($186,365,946)
6 DMG Phasing-NO CFD/ City Paid Sports Park ($3,179,868) ($241,765,946)
7 DMG Phasing - With CFD / NO City Paid Sports Park ($120,253) ($33,822,835)
A complete report of findings along with a list of sources and detailed calculations are contained within the report that follows.
Please contact me with any questions you may have at (760) 272-9136 or by email at michael@dmgeconomics.com.
Sincerely,
Michael J. Bracken
Managing Partner
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 1
Introduction
Development Management Group, Inc. (DMG) has been retained by the City of Lake Elsinore, California to
complete a Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA) of the "Alberhill Villages Initiative". The "Alberhill Villages Initiative"
covers a land mass of approximately 1,400 acres in the Northwest portion of the City of Lake Elsinore. For
purposes of readability, the balance of this report will use the terms "Alberhill Villages" and "Alberhill Villages
Specific Plan (AVSP)" interchangeably.
By way of background, the draft Alberhill Villages Specific Plan (AVSP) was considered by the City’s Planning
Commission in February 2016. Based on the Commission’s recommendation and the City’s completion of the
environmental documents evaluating the proposed Alberhill Villages Specific Plan (AVSP), the final version of the
Alberhill Villages Specific Plan (AVSP) was approved by the Lake Elsinore City Council on June 14, 2016. The
petition to circulate the Alberhill Villages Initiative was submitted to the City Clerk on June 10, 2016. After the
proponent obtained sufficient signatures, the Alberhill Villages Initiative was presented to the City Council on
December 13, 2016. The City Council ordered the preparation of this Fiscal Impact Analysis to examine the fiscal
differences between the City of Lake Elsinore adopted Alberhill Villages Specific Plan (AVSP) and the Alberhill
Villages Initiative.
Information Regarding City of Lake Elsinore
Mr. Grant Yates, City Manager
130 South Main Street
Lake Elsinore, CA 92530
(951) 674-3124
gyates@lake-elsinore.org
Information Regarding Development Management Group, Inc.
Mr. Michael J. Bracken, Managing Partner & Chief Economist
Development Management Group, Inc.
41-625 Eclectic Street, Suite D-2
Palm Desert, CA 92260
(760) 346-8820 / (760) 346-8887 (fax) / (760) 272-9136 (mobile)
Michael@dmgeconomics.com * www.dmgeconomics.com
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 2
Statement of Independence
The City of Lake Elsinore has provided a joint contractual obligation with Development Management Group, Inc.
regarding independence of conclusions regarding the fiscal impacts contained in this report. Therefore, the City of
Lake Elsinore has not provided editorial comment or direction regarding the conclusions contained herein.
Additionally, DMG, Inc. has provided a certification of independence as Section 13 (Page 15) of this Fiscal Impact
Analysis.
Contents of Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis:
1.Sources/References Utilized in Analysis
2.Description of the Alberhill Villages Fiscal Impact Analysis
3.Limitations and Disclosures
4.Host Community Information (City of Lake Elsinore, Southwest Riverside County)
5.Alberhill Villages
6.Description of Differences between City of Lake Elsinore Approved Alberhill Villages Specific Plan and
Alberhill Villages Initiative
7.Assumptions Utilized for Fiscal Impact Analysis
8.Base Information (CPI, TRA Split, City Budget FY 16/17, Budget Projections thru FY 39/40)
9.Static Analysis of Alberhill Villages in 2016-17 Dollars
10.Fiscal Impact of Alberhill Villages based on Initiative Phasing
A. Alberhill Villages Phasing Under Initiative
B. Tax Revenues to the City of Lake Elsinore to Support Alberhill Villages Under Initiative
C. Reconciliation of Revenues vs. Expenses to City of Lake Elsinore Under Initiative
11.Fiscal Impact of Alberhill Villages based on DMG, Inc. Projected Phasing
A. Alberhill Villages Phasing based on DMG, Inc. Projections
B. Tax Revenues to the City of Lake Elsinore to Support Alberhill Villages based on DMG, Inc. Projections
C. Reconciliation of Revenues vs. Expenses to City of Lake Elsinore Based on DMG, Inc. Projections
12.Conclusion
13.Certification
14.Qualifications of Consultant
15.Exhibit A: Consumer Price Index Calculations (1986-2015)
16.Exhibit B: City of Lake Elsinore Projected Property Tax (Tax Rate Area Breakdown)
17.Exhibit C: City of Lake Elsinore Budget Calculations (FY 16/17)
18.Exhibit D: City of Lake Elsinore Projected Budget Expenses FY 20/21 - FY 39/40)
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 3
19.Exhibit E: Static Fiscal Model (FY 16/17 Dollars)
20.Exhibit F: Alberhill Villages Phasing Plan (Based on Initiative)
21.Exhibit G: Alberhill Villages Tax Revenue Projections (Based on the Initiative)
22.Exhibit H: Reconciliation of Revenues vs. Expenses to City of Lake Elsinore (Based on Initiative)
23.Exhibit I: Alberhill Villages Phasing (DMG, Inc. Projections)
24.Exhibit J: Tax Revenues to City of Lake Elsinore to Support Alberhill Villages (DMG, Inc. Projections)
25.Exhibit K: Reconciliation of Revenues vs. Expenses to City of Lake Elsinore (DMG, Inc. Projections)
26.Alberhill Villages Specific Plan Phasing Matrix
27.Alberhill Villages Specific Plan Estimated Tax Revenues to the City of Lake Elsinore
1.References Utilized for Analysis:
1.Alberhill Villages Specific Plan
2.American Community Survey
3.California Employment Development Department
4.California State Board of Equalization
5.California State Department of Finance
6.City of Lake Elsinore, California
7.Confidential Sources (Primary Data)
8.CoreLogic
9.County of Riverside, California
10.Cushman & Wakefield
11.Development Management Group, Inc. (DMG Economics) Internal Calculations
12.HdL
13.Nielsen / Environics Analytics
14.Natelson Company, Inc.
15.Titleprofile.com
16.United States Bureau of Economic Analysis
17.United States Census Bureau
18.United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)
19.Westmar Commercial Real Estate
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 4
2.Description of the Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis
The Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis provides a projection of the revenues and costs associated
with project development. The Fiscal Impact Analysis then provides a reconciliation for which those utilizing it can
determine if the Alberhill Villages Initiative will result in the underlying authority (City of Lake Elsinore) having
sufficient financial resources to provide essential goods and services to the community/development. If there is
excess revenue derived from the Alberhill Villages Initiative (and construction of the corresponding development)
the entire community would benefit from increased services and resources. If the costs associated to support
Alberhill Villages (based on the initiative) exceed the anticipated revenues, the residents of the balance of the City
of Lake Elsinore will make up the difference through additional taxes/fees or through a reduction/loss of services or
both.
3.Limitations/Assumptions of Community Services District Fiscal Impact Analysis
There are a few items in which cannot be reasonably calculated for this analysis. The following are included in this
group:
A.Development Management Group, Inc. does not forecast whether the land uses outlined in either the City of
Lake Elsinore approval or the Alberhill Villages Initiative is the “highest and best use” of the subject
property.
B.DMG, Inc. has not negotiated directly with either the City of Lake Elsinore or Alberhill Villages
(developer) relative to anticipated revenues or costs.
C.DMG, Inc. provided Castle & Cooke (“C&C”), the Alberhill Villages developer, with a "data request"
requesting documentation of existing "Letters of Intent" for any/all commercial users or the stated
"University" component. C&C responded that, “at this time, it is too premature for us to respond to the
development questionnaire projecting the 1st quarter occupancies of the commercial portion of Alberhill
Villages. Also, C&C does not provide to the public LOI’s concerning their real estate transactions.”
D.DMG, Inc. did provide Alberhill Villages (developer) with a "data request" requesting documentation of
existing "Letters of Intent" for any/all commercial users or the stated "University" component. As of this
draft (Thursday December 22, 2016) no response has been received.
E.DMG, Inc. has copyrighted each and every page of this report along with accompanying Exhibits A-G
(inclusive). The purpose of the Copyright is to protect our analysis and report structure as it is considered
intellectual property of DMG, Inc. This said, City of Lake Elsinore is granted unlimited use of this report
(in Final Report status) for their own purposes so long as it is not reverse engineered nor its format used for
subsequent project(s). Any other use by anyone or entity other than City of Lake Elsinore without the
express written and/or licensed permission of Development Management Group, Inc. is prohibited.
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 5
F.Municipal cost structure is assumed to be population based. Meaning, businesses in and of themselves do
not have a call for service, rather the people that populate the community and patronize the businesses.
Therefore, costs of municipal services are based on a per person (per capita) basis and are neutral to the
businesses themselves.
G.DMG, Inc. is limiting this Fiscal Impact Analysis to ongoing and recurring services to the residents of the
City of Lake Elsinore. It is assumed (because of State Law and the City Municipal Code) that one-time
revenues (such as development impact fees and permitting fees) are utilized for one-time expenses.
4.Host Community Information
The City of Lake Elsinore is in the Southwestern portion of Riverside County, California. The City is located along
Interstate 15 that generally runs from San Diego north to the California/Nevada border (and beyond). Along the
way, Interstate 15 travels through the major cities of Escondido, Temecula, Murrieta, (Lake Elsinore), Corona,
Ontario and Rancho Cucamonga. At current, the City has approximately 61,000 residents with a median household
income of approximately $57,000. The City has seen solid residential growth over the last three years with an
average of over 450 new homes being constructed each year. In terms of commercial growth, the community has
over one million (1,000,000) square feet in the planning and development approval process including a Golden
Corral Restaurant (under construction) and recent approval a new La Quinta Inn & Suites and Wal-Mart Superstore.
Recreation based tourism has long been a staple of the local economy with the Lake Elsinore Storm (Single A
Affiliate of the San Diego Padres), Lucas Oil Off-Road Racing and most recently the construction of the Rosetta
Canyon Sports Park (with five (5) champion softball fields and a football field). Additionally, the City recently
entitled a 520,000-square foot indoor sports facility to host such events as tournament basketball, volleyball and
cheerleading competitions.
5.Alberhill Villages Project Description
Alberhill Villages is proposed to be a Master-Planned Community in the Northwest portion of the City of Lake
Elsinore, essentially west of Interstate 15 and Lake Street. Alberhill Villages is scheduled to encompass about
1,400 acres (2.19 square miles). The project developer proposes the community will contain 8,244 residential units
and 4,007,000 square feet of commercial uses. The commercial uses would contain a mix of retail, office, hotel,
institutional (university, school, places of worship). Below is a breakdown of the proposed community:
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 6
A. 2,943 Single Family Residential Units
B. 5,301 Multi-Family Residential Units
C. 1,500,000 Square Feet for Developer Communicated University
D. 1,564,500 Square Feet for Retail
E. 642,500 Square Feet of Office
F. Two (2) 150 Room (each) Hotels
G. One (1) Elementary School
H. 120,000 Square Feet for Places of Worship (i.e., Churches)
6.Description of Differences Between City of Lake Elsinore Approved AVSP and Alberhill Villages
Initiative
The City of Lake Elsinore City Council approved the Alberhill Villages Specific Plan on June 14, 2016 and that
Specific Plan Approval currently establishes the land uses and potential development of the subject site. The
developer of Alberhill Villages prepared the Alberhill Villages Initiative which was qualified as a ballot measure on
November 23, 2016 and submitted to the City of Lake Elsinore City Council on December 13, 2016. The balance
of this report is provides the City Council and the residents of the City of Lake Elsinore a Fiscal Impact Analysis
that will show the anticipated revenues and expenses associated with Alberhill Villages Initiative in the City of Lake
Elsinore. There are substantial differences between the "City Approved Alberhill Villages Specific Plan" and the
"Developer Initiative" and while there are dozens of differences and nuances, this Fiscal Impact Analysis will focus
on the following major differences:
1. Shifting the responsibility of constructing a $42.35 million Sports Park from the developer to the residents of the
City of Lake Elsinore (current and future residents)
2. Elimination of Requirement for Alberhill Villages to be subject to Community Facilities District (CFD) 2015-1
(which is the funding mechanism for public safety (police and fire protection services)).
3. Elimination of Requirement for Alberhill Villages to be subject to Community Facilities District (CFD) 2015-2
which is the funding mechanism for various public infrastructure maintenance including road/streets and street
lighting.
4. Loss of Control, whereby the residents of the City of Lake Elsinore through its adopted represented democracy
(Mayor, Mayor Pro Tem and City Council) along with its appointed professional staff would no longer have
authority for which to determine if the overall health, welfare and safety of residents are being compromised during
the development (or operational) process.
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 7
7. Assumptions Utilized for Fiscal Impact Analysis
A Fiscal Impact Analysis contains various assumptions for which to provide a basis for calculations and
conclusions. Below are the assumptions utilized by Development Management Group, Inc. (DMG Economics) to
provide this Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Alberhill Villages Initiative:
1. City of Lake Elsinore Budget (General Fund) scheduled to increase by 3.5% annually. (Current Fiscal Year
2016/17 Budget provided as Exhibit A).
2. Business License Fees (revenue) scheduled to increase by the 30-Year Consumer Price Index (CPI) Average of
2.6133% annually. (30-Year CPI provided as Exhibit B)
3. Community Facilities District (CFD) 2015-1 scheduled to increase by 4% annually (per program regulations)
4. Community Facilities District (CFD) 2015-2 scheduled to increase by 4% annually (per program regulations)
5. Start Amount (FY 2016/17) of CFD 2015-1 shall be set at $712.40 per Single Family Residence (SFR) and
$499.20 per Multi-Family Residential Unit (MF).
6. Start Amount (FY 2016/17) of CFD 2015-2 shall be set at $500.00 per SFR, $350 per MF and $.03 per square
foot for eligible Commercial Development.
7. Taxable Retail Sales set at $200.00 per square foot of retail space for FY 2016/17.
8. Private Development increases set at 30-Year CPI of 2.6133% per annum (home prices, unit values, commercial
construction, sales and other value).
9. Costs for the City of Lake Elsinore to provide municipal services based on the FY 2016/17 budget minus expense
for Planning (Administration) and Engineering (Administration). Those services are categorized as to be provided
on a fee basis.
10. Revenues associated with Alberhill Villages to provide municipal services are considered those derived from
Sales Tax, Property Tax, Franchise Fees, Business License Fees and Transient Occupancy Taxes (Hotel Taxes).
11. Local Sales Tax Rate (benefit to the City of Lake Elsinore) set at 1%.
12. Local Transient Occupancy Tax Rate (benefit to the City of Lake Elsinore) set at 10%.
13. Property Tax (benefit to the City of Lake Elsinore General Fund) set at 4.463063% of the base level property tax
received by the County of Riverside. The pass-thru property tax (benefit to the City of Lake Elsinore for Fire
Protection Services) set at 5.6294595% of the base level property tax received by the County of Riverside (Tax Rate
Area (TRA) breakdown provided as Exhibit D).
14. Start Amount (FY 2016/17) for a new Single Family Home set at $345,000. Start Amount (FY 2016/17) for a
new Multi-Family Housing Unit set at $169,825.
15. Start Amount (FY 2016/17) for Commercial space set at $191.75 per square foot.
16. Assessed Valuation for all eligible uses scheduled to increase by 1.5% per annum. Proposition 13 caps said
increases at 2% per annum.
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 8
17. Commercial facilities for places of worship, school and university are considered exempt from property tax and
business license fees.
18. Transient Occupancy Tax (Hotel Taxes) based on start amount (FY 2016/17) of $90.00 per night, 65%
occupancy.
19. Retail absorption based on 54.73 square feet per additional person (population)
20. Average household scheduled at 3.48 persons per residential unit (blended)
21. University space requirement based on 6,000 projected students and 80.98 square feet per student (average of
campuses at California State University San Marcos and California State University San Bernardino).
22. Office space absorption based on 13.96 square feet per additional person (population). Current office space is at
6.84 square feet per person. 13.96 is based on regional square footage (community considered in deficit at current
for office space, hence why higher number utilized).
23. Regional Sports Park has projected capital expense (cost) of $42.35 million. For financing purposes, an
additional 1.5% has been added to allow for cost of issuance of debt for total cost of $43.0 million.
24. For development scenarios labeled "Alberhill Villages Initiative" and "DMG, Inc. Projected Phasing", it is
scheduled that build-out of all market driven elements are completed by Year 20 (Fiscal Year 2039/40).
25. For development scenarios whereby the Sports Park is not built, DMG, Inc. makes no projections regarding the
alternative use of that particular land use.
8.Base Information (Consumer Price Index, Tax Rate Area Split, City of Lake Elsinore Budget-FY
16/17 and Projected Budget thru FY 39/40) (Exhibits A, B, C & D)
To begin, the assumptions (Section 7) show that the Consumer Price Index over the last thirty (30) years averaged
2.6133%. Exhibit A provides said calculations. Exhibit B provides a breakdown of the base level property taxes
for the subject property. This is known as a Tax Rate Area Analysis or TRA Analysis. Alberhill Villages is within
one of two Tax Rate Areas. The average of the two tax rates net the City of Lake Elsinore General Fund
approximately 4.463% of base level (1%) property taxes assessed. In addition there is a pass-thru equal to
approximately 5.629%% of base level (1%) property taxes assessed toward fire protection services.
The City of Lake Elsinore has an adopted budget of $41.68 million for Fiscal Year 2016/17. Exhibit C shows a
breakdown by department as to the cost per resident (per capita) and per household. On average, the City of Lake
Elsinore provides $683.18 per resident on services including general government, administrative services, public
safety, community development, public services, community services and internal services. For purposes of this
Fiscal Impact Analysis, DMG, Inc. has adjusted the FY 16/17 per resident expenditures to $633.30. This net
amount reflects deductions to the General Fund budget for Planning and Engineering Services which are generally
user-fee based.
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 9
To the average resident, municipal services look like police protection, fire protection, park maintenance and
recreation programs, senior centers and programs, weed/graffiti abatement, street/road maintenance and community
events. The City of Lake Elsinore spends about one-half of its financial resources on police and fire protection
services for the residents of the community. The City has increased its budget by about 3.5% (on average) over the
last three (3) years. While this level of increase is substantially below the cost increases associated with contract
services (law enforcement for example) and health insurance expense increases, this is the figure that is used to
model the fiscal impacts of the Alberhill Villages Initiative.
Exhibit D projects the cost of municipal services to residents beginning in Fiscal Year 20/21 (projected to be Year 1
of Alberhill Villages development) ending in Fiscal Year 39/40 (projected to be Year 20 of Alberhill Villages
development). Based on an annual increase of 3.5% annually, the City of Lake Elsinore is projected to spend
between $712.45 (FY 20/21) and $1,369.68 (FY 39/40) per resident on municipal government services.
9.Static Analysis of Alberhill Villages Fiscal Impact in 2016/17 Dollars
Exhibit E provides a Static Fiscal Model (Model 1) for the Alberhill Villages Specific Plan. Essentially a static
analysis provides an understanding of what would be fiscal impacts to the City of Lake Elsinore be if the entire
project were to be constructed and operational (all projected and market justified elements) in the current year. The
purpose of a static analysis is to provide a baseline understanding of the impact on the current City of Lake Elsinore
budget.
In short, if the Alberhill Villages Specific Plan were completely built out in the current fiscal year and the City of
Lake Elsinore did not receive any CFD 2015-1 or CFD 2015-2 revenue for which to assist in paying for municipal
service, the expenses would exceed revenues by $10.73 million. The City of Lake Elsinore has a current fiscal year
budget of $41.68 million, meaning the City would be in a deficit position equal $119.63 per resident (or 25% of its
annual budget).
Even if Alberhill Villages were subject to CFD 2015-1 and CFD 2015-2, the City of Lake Elsinore would be in a
deficit position of $2.6 million to support the residents of the development with municipal services. This translates
to a deficit equal to $29.00 per resident (or about 6% of its annual budget).
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 10
10.Fiscal Impact of Alberhill Villages Based on Initiative Phasing
The Alberhill Villages Initiative provides for the option of Alberhill Villages being exempt from CFD 2015-1 and
2015-2 if certain benchmarks are met. In short if a pre-determined amount of commercial space is constructed prior
to a specified number of residential units, the development would not be subject to CFD 2015-1 and CFD 2015-2,
which provide income to the City of Lake Elsinore to provide basic municipal services. Exhibit F provides a
projected Phasing Plan for Alberhill Villages based on the Initiative and utilizing the exemption table below.
Phasing presented beyond the 4,000th certificate of occupancy and 1,000,000 sq. ft. attempt to model similarities to
anticipated demand through the completion of development (Year 20).
Table 1:Alberhill Villages Initiative
Below shows the prescribed development levels to qualify for the exemption
200,000 sq. ft. of commercial must be constructed prior to the 200th certificate of occupancy
400,000 sq. ft. of commercial must be constructed prior to the 500th certificate of occupancy
750,000 sq. ft. of commercial must be constructed prior to the 2,000th certificate of occupancy
1,000,000 sq. ft. of commercial must be constructed prior to the 4,000th certificate of occupancy
Note: there is no requirement for any additional commercial development beyond the 4,000th certificate of
occupancy (total project build-out is 8,244 housing units).
Note: DMG, Inc. has modeled retail and office space to be constructed to meet the provisions described above,
meaning that to the extent that the phasing matrix includes institutional/educational and worship space, it was not
counted toward the minimums, thus maximizing the generation of tax revenue to the City of Lake Elsinore to
support Alberhill Villages. This method favors the developer, as institutional/education and worship space do not
generally generate tax revenue.
Within Exhibit F is the full phasing matrix under the initiative. In this matrix, it is estimated that the delivery of
product (homes, rental units and commercial space) has a start in fiscal year 2020/2021. In the first year, it is
estimated that 199 total residential units along with 160,000 square feet of retail space and 40,000 square feet of
office space will be constructed. The matrix runs through the Fiscal Year 2039/40. At the end of year twenty (20)
it is anticipated that all 8,244 units of residential housing will have been constructed. It is estimated that the entire
1,546,500 square feet of retail will have been constructed as well as both hotels (150 rooms each) as well as the
proposed elementary school and places of worship.
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 11
In terms of institutional space for education (the university), it is projected that only 486,000 square feet of the 1.5
million square feet proposed will be needed by the developer estimated capacity of 6,000 students. Further, only
400,495 square feet of office space is likely to be absorbed, leaving a balance of 242,005 square feet not constructed
for a forecasted lack of market demand.
Exhibit G provides a projection of revenues to the City of Lake Elsinore as a result of what is described as
"Initiative Phasing". The development of 199 residential units and 200,000 square feet (total) of retail and office
space is projected to generate $493,095 in tax revenues to the City of Lake Elsinore. By modeled build-out (Year
20), tax revenues are projected to be about $13.47 million annually. These revenues are inclusive of property tax,
sales and use tax, transient occupancy (hotel) taxes, business license fees and franchise fees.
Exhibit H provides a reconciliation of revenues versus expenses to support Alberhill Villages under the Initiative
Model. There are three (3) separate models (labeled Models 2-4) under the Initiative Phasing (note Model 1 is the
Static Model provided as Exhibit E).
Model 2: provides a twenty year projection of revenues and expenses to the City of Lake Elsinore whereby the City
does not receive any revenues from CFD 2015-1 and CFD 2015-2 and the Sports Park is NOT paid for by the City
(meaning it is likely not built). Under this model, in Year 1, the development is essentially fiscally neutral (a
negative $633). By Year 20, the annual deficit to the City (whereby the costs to support residents of Alberhill
Villages exceeds revenues to the City of Lake Elsinore) rises to $25.82 million. On an aggregate scale, over twenty
years, it will cost the City of Lake Elsinore $187.55 million more to support Alberhill Villages than it will receive in
tax revenue.
Model 3: provides a twenty year projection of revenues and expenses to the City of Lake Elsinore whereby the City
does not receive any revenues from CFD 2015-1 and CFD 2015-2 and the City of Lake Elsinore is responsible for
the development (paying for) the Sports Park. Under this model, in Year 1, the costs to support Alberhill Villages
exceeds revenues by $2.77 million. By Year 20, the annual deficit to the City (whereby the costs to support
residents of Alberhill Villages exceeds revenues to the City of Lake Elsinore) rises to $28.59 million. On an
aggregate scale, over twenty years, it will cost the City of Lake Elsinore $242.95 million more to support Alberhill
Villages than it will receive in tax revenue. In addition, the City will have an additional ten (10) years on bond
financing required to build the Sports Park (at a cost of $2.77 million per year).
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 12
Model 4: provides a twenty year projection of revenues and expenses to the City of Lake Elsinore whereby the City
does receive revenues from CFD 2015-1 and CFD 2015-2 and the Sports Park is NOT paid for by the City. Under
this model, in Year 1, the development provides fiscal benefits to the City of Lake Elsinore in Years 1-3, (Year 1
fiscal benefit is $225,500) though in Year 4 Alberhill Villages begins to cost the City more than it receives in tax
revenues. By Year 20, the annual deficit to the City (whereby the costs to support residents of Alberhill Villages
exceeds revenues to the City of Lake Elsinore) is $6.03 million. On an aggregate scale, over twenty years, it will
cost the City of Lake Elsinore $34.71 million more to support Alberhill Villages than it will receive in tax revenue.
11.Fiscal Impact of Alberhill Villages Based on DMG, Inc. Projected Phasing
Independent of a Static Phase Model (Exhibit E) and the Alberhill Villages Initiative Phase Model (Exhibit F),
DMG, Inc. has produced a projected phasing based on demand modeling. Essentially the residential unit phasing
has many similarities to the Alberhill Villages Initiative Phase Model but projects commercial space (retail, office,
hotel and institutional/educational) based on demand research (contained in the report assumptions). The DMG,
Inc. Projected Phasing is shown as Exhibit I.
In Year 1 (Fiscal Year 20/21), it is projected that 262 residential units are constructed along with about 49,000
square feet of retail space and 12,700 square feet of office space. The hotel elements are broken into two (2) hotels.
The first being built in Year 5, the second in Year 10. By Year 20, (the final or build-out year), it is estimated that
524 residential units will be built along with about 94,000 square feet of retail and 25,000 square feet of office
space. DMG, Inc. projects that there is excess office space planned than what is entitled as well as excess
institutional/education space (not inclusive of the school site). Calculations are included in Exhibit I.
Exhibit J provides a projection of revenues to the City of Lake Elsinore as a result of what is described as "DMG,
Inc. Phasing". The development of 262 residential units and 62,581 square feet (total) of retail and office space is
projected to generate $237,037 in tax revenues to the City of Lake Elsinore. By modeled build-out (Year 20), tax
revenues are projected to be about $13.54 million annually. These revenues are inclusive of property tax, sales and
use tax, transient occupancy (hotel) taxes, business license fees and franchise fees.
Exhibit K provides a reconciliation of revenues versus expenses to support Alberhill Villages under the DMG, Inc.
Phasing Model. There are three (3) separate models (labeled Models 5-7) under the DMG, Inc. Phasing Model
(note Model 1 is the Static Model provided as Exhibit E and Models 2-4 are the Initiative Models shown in Exhibit
H).
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 13
Model 5: provides a twenty year projection of revenues and expenses to the City of Lake Elsinore whereby the City
does not receive any revenues from CFD 2015-1 and CFD 2015-2 and the Sports Park is NOT paid for by the City
(meaning it is likely not built). Under this model, in Year 1, the development will cost the City of Lake Elsinore
$410,000 more to support than the tax revenues it will receive (deficit situation). By Year 20, the annual deficit to
the City (whereby the costs to support residents of Alberhill Villages exceeds revenues to the City of Lake Elsinore)
rises to $25.76 million. On an aggregate scale, over twenty years, it will cost the City of Lake Elsinore $186.37
million more to support Alberhill Villages than it will receive in tax revenue.
Model 6: provides a twenty year projection of revenues and expenses to the City of Lake Elsinore whereby the City
does not receive any revenues from CFD 2015-1 and CFD 2015-2 and the City of Lake Elsinore is responsible for
the development (paying for) the Sports Park. Under this model, in Year 1, the costs to support Alberhill Villages
exceeds revenues by $3.18 million. By Year 20, the annual deficit to the City (whereby the costs to support
residents of Alberhill Villages exceeds revenues to the City of Lake Elsinore) rises to $28.53 million. On an
aggregate scale, over twenty years, it will cost the City of Lake Elsinore $241.77 million more to support Alberhill
Villages than it will receive in tax revenue. In addition, the City will have an additional ten (10) years on bond
financing required to build the Sports Park (at a cost of $2.77 million per year).
Model 7: provides a twenty year projection of revenues and expenses to the City of Lake Elsinore whereby the City
does receive revenues from CFD 2015-1 and CFD 2015-2 and the Sports Park is NOT paid for by the City. Under
this model, in Year 1, the costs to support Alberhill Villages exceeds revenues by $120,250. By Year 20, the annual
deficit to the City (whereby the costs to support residents of Alberhill Villages exceeds revenues to the City of Lake
Elsinore) rises to $5.96 million. On an aggregate scale, over twenty years, it will cost the City of Lake Elsinore
$33.82 million more to support Alberhill Villages than it will receive in tax revenue.
It is important to note that under scenarios whereby the City of Lake Elsinore maintains taxation authority over
Alberhill Villages (or any other development in the City), it has the opportunity to adjust various fees and taxes to
insure that the residents of the City (outside the subject area) are not unduly or unfairly burdened with additional
fees and taxes to support a specific development or in this case Specific Plan Area. This means that under Phasing
Scenario #7, that the City of Lake Elsinore would likely make appropriate adjustments to prevent a deficit situation.
While Model 4 and Model 7 draw similar conclusions, the distinction (and reason for presentation) is that under
Model 7, the City has the ability to make revenue adjustments to mitigate fiscal deficits as described in the previous
paragraph. Under Model 4 (Alberhill Villages Initiative), the City would likely not have any ability to do so, thus
placing additional burdens on residents outside Alberhill Villages to pay for essential municipal services.
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 14
12.Conclusion
DMG, Inc. has produced seven (7) fiscal models in regards to Alberhill Villages Specific Plan providing a baseline
(static) model as well as six (6) models that show the fiscal impacts of Alberhill Villages based on the Initiative and
DMG, Inc. Projected Phasing. Below is a synopsis (Table 2).
Table 2: Synopsis of Models 1-7
# Name Year 1 Surplus/Deficit Years 1-20 Aggregate Surplus (Deficit)
1A Static- NO CFD Revenue ($10,673,143) N/A
1B Static- With CFD Revenue ($2,603,293) N/A
2 Initiative NO CFD / NO City Paid Sports Park ($633) ($187,550,579)
3 Initiative NO CFD / City Paid Sports Park ($2,770,633) ($242,950,579)
4 Initiative With CFD / NO City Paid Sports Park $225,538 ($34,709,730)
5 DMG Phasing-NO CFD / NO City Paid Sports Park ($409,868) ($186,365,946)
6 DMG Phasing-NO CFD / City Paid Sports Park ($3,179,868) ($241,765,946)
7 DMG Phasing - With CFD / NO City Paid Sports Park ($120,253) ($33,822,835)
At current, there are no scenarios whereby the residents of the City of Lake Elsinore will have protection from
sharing the burden of Alberhill Villages developed. If the Alberhill Villages Initiative is passed, it is likely that the
residents of the City of Lake Elsinore (outside of Alberhill Villages) will be responsible for an aggregate deficit of
between $187.5 million and $242.9 million over a twenty year period.
There is one (1) scenario (#7) in which the aggregate deficit to the City of Lake Elsinore over the first twenty (20)
years is "only" $33.8 million. This particular scenario provides the ability for the City to work with residents in an
effort to insure that municipal service costs are in balance with revenues from residents of Alberhill Villages.
Based on the calculations described above and contained in the attached exhibits, Development Management
Group, Inc. (DMG Economics) cautions the City of Lake Elsinore and its residents that the passage of the Alberhill
Villages Initiative would severely and irreparably impact the ability for the City of Lake Elsinore to provide even
the most basic of public safety (police and fire) services to the community as a whole.
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative
13.Certification
I certify that my engagement to prepare this report was not contingent upon developing or reporting predetermined
results.The statements of fact contained herein and the substance of this report are based on public records, data
provided by City of Lake Elsinore and other sources as described in the reference section of this report. This report
reflects my personal, unbiased professional analyses, opinions and conclusions.
assumptions related to this report change after the date of this report (
reserves the professional privilege to modify the contents and/or
_______________________________
Michael J. Bracken, Managing Partner
Development Management Group, Inc.
41-625 Eclectic Street, Suite D-2
Palm Desert, CA 92260
(760) 346-8820 / (760) 346-8887 (fax)
(760) 272-9136 (mobile)
Michael@dmgeconomics.com
www.dmgeconomics.com
(the balance of this page intentionally left blank)
Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17
I certify that my engagement to prepare this report was not contingent upon developing or reporting predetermined
The statements of fact contained herein and the substance of this report are based on public records, data
and other sources as described in the reference section of this report. This report
d professional analyses, opinions and conclusions.If any of the underlying
assumptions related to this report change after the date of this report (January 12, 2017),
reserves the professional privilege to modify the contents and/or conclusions of this report.
_______________________________
Development Management Group, Inc.
(the balance of this page intentionally left blank)
FINAL Page 15
I certify that my engagement to prepare this report was not contingent upon developing or reporting predetermined
The statements of fact contained herein and the substance of this report are based on public records, data
and other sources as described in the reference section of this report. This report
If any of the underlying
, 2017),then the undersigned
conclusions of this report.
City of Lake Elsinore Alberhill Villages Initiative Fiscal Impact Analysis: 1/12/17 FINAL Page 16
14.Qualifications of Consultant
Development Management Group, Incorporated (DMG, Inc.) specializes in services related to economic
development and economic analysis. Such services include site selection and analysis, economic development
strategic planning and implementation, development management, market/development feasibility, economic
analysis, entitlement/permit processing and project financing.
Since 2003, DMG, Inc. has assisted over one-hundred companies with their site selection and entitlement/permit
processing. These companies have created over 3,500 new jobs and invested over $500 million within the
communities they are located. In addition, DMG, Inc. has assisted several public agencies and economic
development corporations with economic impact analysis, strategic planning, marketing and other business
recruitment projects creating the administrative and operational infrastructure to enable them to grow their
economies. DMG, Inc. also serves as a contract economist for the Southern California Association of Governments
(SCAG) which is Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) comprised of over 200 cities and counties.
The company founder, Michael Bracken brings over 25 years of local, regional and state government experience in
the fields of economic development, redevelopment, housing and sales and use tax administration. Bracken holds a
Bachelor’s Degree in Business Administration and a Master’s Degree in Public Administration from The California
State University San Bernardino (CSUSB). He co-designed CSUSB’s Master’s level course titled Management of
Local Economic Development, which trains economic development professionals in business recruitment and
effective use of financial and tax incentives. He is widely quoted in media throughout Southern California and
advises various local, state and federal elected officials on matters pertaining to the economy and has testified
before state and federal legislative bodies as well as serving as an expert witness in both state and federal courts.
Bracken is a co-founder and serves on the Board of Directors of Community Valley Bank, a publically traded
financial institution headquartered in Southern California. Additionally, Bracken currently serves as a member of
the California State University San Bernardino (CSUSB)-Board of Governors, Desert Sands Unified School District
Facilities Development Board and Bracken is a former member of the Riverside County Workforce Development
Board.
#Year % Change in CPI
1 1986 1.1
2 1987 4.4
3 1988 4.4
4 1989 4.6
5 1990 6.1
6 1991 3.1
7 1992 2.9
8 1993 2.7
9 1994 2.7
10 1995 2.5
11 1996 3.3
12 1997 1.7
13 1998 1.6
14 1999 2.7
15 2000 3.4
16 2001 1.6
17 2002 2.4
18 2003 1.9
19 2004 3.3
20 2005 3.4
21 2006 2.5
22 2007 4.1
23 2008 0.1
24 2009 2.7
25 2010 1.5
26 2011 3.0
27 2012 1.7
28 2013 1.5
29 2014 0.8
30 2015 0.7
78.4
Average 2.613333333
Average Increase in Consumer Prices = 2.6133% annually
Exhibit A
Consumer Price Index Calculation (30-Years) 1986-2015
1% Proposition 13 Base Level Taxes + Add-Ons
TRA 05-093
#Agency/Beneficiary Percentage
1 County General Fund 0.1005204100
2 County Free Library 0.0136771600
3 County Structure Fire Protection 0.0559169200
4 City of Lake Elsinore Prop Tax (Annexed)0.0443312100
5 Lake Elsinore Unified 0.3149191500
6 Lake Elsinore Unified Imp No 96-1 0.0000000000
7 Mt. San Jacinto Jr College 0.0377685300
8 Elsinore Area Elementary School Fund 0.0690266200
9 Riverside County Office of Education 0.0389874400
10 Riverside County Regional Park & Open Space 0.0033082600
11 Flood Control Admin 0.0022373500
12 Flood Control Zone 3 0.0319627400
13 CSA 152 0.0000000000
14 Elsinore Valley Cemetery 0.0095472600
15 County Ortega Trail Recreation and Park 0.0142898600
16 So. Calif JT (19,30,33,36,37,56)0.0000000000
17 MWD West 1302999 0.0000000000
18 Elsinore Valley Municipal Water 0.0961766900
19 Elsinore Valley Municipal Water District 1 0.0000000000
20 Western Municipal Water 0.0129378100
21 Elsinore Murrieta Anza Resource Conservation 0.0000000000
22 ERAF Fund 0.1543925900
23 Total of Base 1% Property Tax 1.0000000000
Add-On Taxes
24 Mt San Jacinto Jr. College 0.01394
25 MWD West 1302999 0.0035
26 Total Add-On Taxes 0.01744
27 Total Property Tax Rate: TRA 05-093 1.0174400000
TRA 05-095
28 County General Fund*0.1018782800
29 County Free Library 0.0138619200
30 County Structure Fire Protection 0.0566722700
31 City of Lake Elsinore Prop Tax (Annexed)0.0449300500
32 Lake Elsinore Unified 0.3191732100
33 Lake Elsinore Unified Imp No 96-1 0.0000000000
34 Mt. San Jacinto Jr College 0.0382787300
35 Elsinore Area Elementary School Fund 0.0699590600
36 Riverside County Office of Education 0.0395140900
37 Riverside County Regional Park & Open Space 0.0033529500
38 Flood Control Admin 0.0022675800
39 Flood Control Zone 2 0.0401231000
40 CSA 152 0.0000000000
41 Elsinore Valley Cemetery 0.0096762300
42 So. Calif JT (19,30,33,36,37,56)0.0000000000
43 MWD West 1302999 0.0000000000
44 Elsinore Valley Municipal Water 0.0974758900
45 Elsinore Valley Municipal Water District 1 0.0000000000
46 Western Municipal Water 0.0131125800
47 Elsinore Murrieta Anza Resource Conservation 0.0022113800
48 ERAF Fund 0.1475126800
49 Total of Base 1% Property Tax 1.0000000000
Add-On Taxes
50 Mt San Jacinto Jr. College 0.01394
51 MWD West 1302999 0.0035
52 Total Add-On Taxes 0.01744
53 Total Property Tax Rate: TRA 05-093 1.0174400000
54 Average of City of Lake Elsinore General Fund 0.0446306300
55 Average of Fire Protection (Pass Thru to Lake Elsinore)0.0562945950
Notes:
All Calculations Post ERAF
Tax Rate Area Breakdown
City of Lake Elsinore
Exhibit B
# Item Amount Population Per Capita Amount Households Per Household Amount
Total General Fund Budget (Expenditures)$41,678,028 61,006 $683.18 16,641 $2,504.54
General Government
1 City Council $302,364 61,006 $4.96 16,641 $18.17
2 Community Support $89,200 61,006 $1.46 16,641 $5.36
3 City Treasurer $0 61,006 $0.00 16,641 $0.00
4 City Clerk $603,973 61,006 $9.90 16,641 $36.29
5 City Attorney $500,000 61,006 $8.20 16,641 $30.05
6 City Manager's Office $758,121 61,006 $12.43 16,641 $45.56
Administrative Services
7 Finance $1,736,024 61,006 $28.46 16,641 $104.32
8 Human Resources $293,185 61,006 $4.81 16,641 $17.62
Public Safety
9 Police Services $12,431,410 61,006 $203.77 16,641 $747.04
10 Fire Services $7,595,637 61,006 $124.51 16,641 $456.44
11 Animal Services $839,200 61,006 $13.76 16,641 $50.43
Community Development
12 Planning $1,243,418 61,006 $20.38 16,641 $74.72
13 Economic Development $357,896 61,006 $5.87 16,641 $21.51
14 Building & Safety/Fire Prevention $1,526,526 61,006 $25.02 16,641 $91.73
15 Code Enforcement/Graffiti $745,926 61,006 $12.23 16,641 $44.82
Public Services
16 Engineering $1,799,224 61,006 $29.49 16,641 $108.12
17 Public Works/Weed Abatement $2,467,669 61,006 $40.45 16,641 $148.29
18 Park Maintenance $2,041,631 61,006 $33.47 16,641 $122.69
19 Lake Maintenance $1,376,069 61,006 $22.56 16,641 $82.69
Community Services
20 Recreation $926,806 61,006 $15.19 16,641 $55.69
21 Community Center $834,773 61,006 $13.68 16,641 $50.16
22 Senior Center $301,844 61,006 $4.95 16,641 $18.14
23 Campground $337,630 61,006 $5.53 16,641 $20.29
Internal Service Funds
24 Non-Departmental-Operating $2,567,500 61,006 $42.09 16,641 $154.29
25 Totals $41,676,026 61,006 $683.15 16,641.00 $2,504.42
26 Total Revenues $40,447,406 61,006 $663.01 16,641 $2,430.59
27 Sales $9,720,300 61,006 $159.33 16,641 $584.12
28 Property Tax $7,068,582 61,006 $115.87 16,641 $424.77
29 Franchise Taxes $2,712,101 61,006 $44.46 16,641 $162.98
30 Building Permit Fees $2,000,000 61,006 $32.78 16,641 $120.19
31 Property Transfer Tax $302,656 61,006 $4.96 16,641 $18.19
32 Transient Occupancy Tax $330,000 61,006 $5.41 16,641 $19.83
33 Other Licenses & Permits $1,131,071 61,006 $18.54 16,641 $67.97
34 Intergovernmental $86,500 61,006 $1.42 16,641 $5.20
35 Fees $3,714,021 61,006 $60.88 16,641 $223.18
36 Fines & Forfeitures $510,450 61,006 $8.37 16,641 $30.67
37 Fire Service Tax Credit $2,478,981 61,006 $40.64 16,641 $148.97
38 Investment Earnings $105,000 61,006 $1.72 16,641 $6.31
39 Reimbursement and Other $5,504,872 61,006 $90.23 16,641 $330.80
40 Special Assessments $3,278,871 61,006 $53.75 16,641 $197.04
41 Traffic Safety, Offender & Enforcement $705,500 61,006 $11.56 16,641 $42.40
42 Reimbursements for Streets Program $798,500 61,006 $13.09 16,641 $47.98
Notes:
Totals for per capita and household are off from projected by 3 cents and 12 cents respectively due to rounding
City of Lake Elsinore Budget Calculations (2016-17 Budget)
Exhibit C
Expenses
Revenues
# Item FY 16/17 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 FY 32/33 FY 33/34 FY 34/35 FY 35/36 FY 36/37 FY 37/38 FY 38/39 FY 39/40
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20
Total General Fund Budget (Expenditures)
General Government
1 City Council $4.96 $5.69 $5.89 $6.10 $6.31 $6.53 $6.76 $7.00 $7.24 $7.49 $7.76 $8.03 $8.31 $8.60 $8.90 $9.21 $9.54 $9.87 $10.21 $10.57 $10.94
2 Community Support $1.46 $1.68 $1.73 $1.79 $1.86 $1.92 $1.99 $2.06 $2.13 $2.21 $2.28 $2.36 $2.45 $2.53 $2.62 $2.71 $2.81 $2.91 $3.01 $3.11 $3.22
3 City Treasurer $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
4 City Clerk $9.90 $11.36 $11.76 $12.17 $12.60 $13.04 $13.49 $13.96 $14.45 $14.96 $15.48 $16.02 $16.59 $17.17 $17.77 $18.39 $19.03 $19.70 $20.39 $21.10 $21.84
5 City Attorney $8.20 $9.41 $9.74 $10.08 $10.43 $10.80 $11.18 $11.57 $11.97 $12.39 $12.82 $13.27 $13.74 $14.22 $14.72 $15.23 $15.76 $16.32 $16.89 $17.48 $18.09
Administrative Services
6 Finance $28.46 $32.66 $33.80 $34.98 $36.21 $37.48 $38.79 $40.14 $41.55 $43.00 $44.51 $46.07 $47.68 $49.35 $51.08 $52.86 $54.71 $56.63 $58.61 $60.66 $62.78
7 Human Resources $4.81 $5.52 $5.71 $5.91 $6.12 $6.33 $6.56 $6.78 $7.02 $7.27 $7.52 $7.79 $8.06 $8.34 $8.63 $8.93 $9.25 $9.57 $9.91 $10.25 $10.61
Public Safety
8 Police Services $203.77 $233.83 $242.01 $250.48 $259.25 $268.32 $277.71 $287.43 $297.49 $307.90 $318.68 $329.83 $341.38 $353.33 $365.69 $378.49 $391.74 $405.45 $419.64 $434.33 $449.53
9 Fire Services $124.51 $142.88 $147.88 $153.05 $158.41 $163.95 $169.69 $175.63 $181.78 $188.14 $194.72 $201.54 $208.59 $215.89 $223.45 $231.27 $239.37 $247.74 $256.41 $265.39 $274.68
10 Animal Services $13.76 $15.79 $16.34 $16.91 $17.51 $18.12 $18.75 $19.41 $20.09 $20.79 $21.52 $22.27 $23.05 $23.86 $24.69 $25.56 $26.45 $27.38 $28.34 $29.33 $30.36
Community Development
11 Economic Development $5.87 $6.74 $6.97 $7.22 $7.47 $7.73 $8.00 $8.28 $8.57 $8.87 $9.18 $9.50 $9.83 $10.18 $10.53 $10.90 $11.28 $11.68 $12.09 $12.51 $12.95
12 Building & Safety/Fire Prevention $25.02 $28.71 $29.72 $30.76 $31.83 $32.95 $34.10 $35.29 $36.53 $37.81 $39.13 $40.50 $41.92 $43.38 $44.90 $46.47 $48.10 $49.78 $51.53 $53.33 $55.20
13 Code Enforcement/Graffiti $12.23 $14.03 $14.53 $15.03 $15.56 $16.10 $16.67 $17.25 $17.86 $18.48 $19.13 $19.80 $20.49 $21.21 $21.95 $22.72 $23.51 $24.33 $25.19 $26.07 $26.98
Public Services
14 Public Works/Weed Abatement $40.45 $46.42 $48.04 $49.72 $51.46 $53.26 $55.13 $57.06 $59.05 $61.12 $63.26 $65.47 $67.77 $70.14 $72.59 $75.13 $77.76 $80.49 $83.30 $86.22 $89.24
15 Park Maintenance $33.47 $38.41 $39.75 $41.14 $42.58 $44.07 $45.62 $47.21 $48.86 $50.57 $52.34 $54.18 $56.07 $58.04 $60.07 $62.17 $64.34 $66.60 $68.93 $71.34 $73.84
16 Lake Maintenance $22.56 $25.89 $26.79 $27.73 $28.70 $29.71 $30.75 $31.82 $32.94 $34.09 $35.28 $36.52 $37.80 $39.12 $40.49 $41.90 $43.37 $44.89 $46.46 $48.09 $49.77
Community Services
17 Recreation $15.19 $17.43 $18.04 $18.67 $19.33 $20.00 $20.70 $21.43 $22.18 $22.95 $23.76 $24.59 $25.45 $26.34 $27.26 $28.21 $29.20 $30.22 $31.28 $32.38 $33.51
18 Community Center $13.68 $15.70 $16.25 $16.82 $17.40 $18.01 $18.64 $19.30 $19.97 $20.67 $21.39 $22.14 $22.92 $23.72 $24.55 $25.41 $26.30 $27.22 $28.17 $29.16 $30.18
19 Senior Center $4.95 $5.68 $5.88 $6.08 $6.30 $6.52 $6.75 $6.98 $7.23 $7.48 $7.74 $8.01 $8.29 $8.58 $8.88 $9.19 $9.52 $9.85 $10.19 $10.55 $10.92
20 Campground $5.53 $6.35 $6.57 $6.80 $7.04 $7.28 $7.54 $7.80 $8.07 $8.36 $8.65 $8.95 $9.26 $9.59 $9.92 $10.27 $10.63 $11.00 $11.39 $11.79 $12.20
Internal Service Funds
21 Non-Departmental-Operating $42.09 $48.30 $49.99 $51.74 $53.55 $55.42 $57.36 $59.37 $61.45 $63.60 $65.83 $68.13 $70.51 $72.98 $75.54 $78.18 $80.92 $83.75 $86.68 $89.71 $92.85
22 Total Expenditure Per Capita $633.30 $712.45 $737.38 $763.19 $789.90 $817.55 $846.17 $875.78 $906.43 $938.16 $970.99 $1,004.98 $1,040.15 $1,076.56 $1,114.24 $1,153.24 $1,193.60 $1,235.38 $1,278.61 $1,323.37 $1,369.68
Notes:
A Aggregate Adjustment for FY 16-17 to FY 20-21 is 14.75% (3.50% Per Year Compounded)
B Annual Adjustments from FY 20-21 through FY 35-36 are at 3.50% Per Year
C Difference Between City of Lake Elsinore Budget and Resident Expenses is Elimination of Costs for City Manager, Planning and Engineering which are Offset Directly by Service Fees though City Manager is included in Year 1 for purposes of the Static Model
Exhibit D
City of Lake Elsinore Projected Expenses for Government Services
#Item Quantity/Figure
1 Single Family Residential Units 2,943
2 Multi-Family Residential Units 5,301
3 Total Projected Residents 28,690
4 Assessed Valuation Per Single Family Residential Unit $345,000
5 Assessed Valuation Per Multi-Family Residential Unit $169,825
6 Total Assessed Valuation SFR $1,015,335,000
7 Total Assessed Valuation Multi-Family $900,242,325
8 CFD 2015-1 ($712.45 SFR/ $499.20 MF)$4,743,000
9 CFD 2015-2 ($500.00 SFR / $350 MF)$3,326,850
10 Institutional Space (University)486,000
11 Retail Space 1,564,500
12 Office Space 400,495
13 Hotels (300 Rooms Total)180,000
14 Worship Space 120,000
15 Assessed Valuation Per Sq. Ft. Retail $191.75
16 Assessed Valuation Per Sq. Ft. Office $191.75
17 Assessed Valuation Per Room $100,000
18 Total Assessed Valuation Retail $299,992,875
19 Total Assessed Valuation Office $76,794,916
20 Total Assessed Valuation Hotel $30,000,000
21 Total Assessed Valuation $2,322,365,116
22 Property Tax Rate (General Fund)0.04463063
23 Property Tax Rate (Fire Department Pass-Thru)0.056294595
24 Net to City Property Tax (General Fund)$1,036,486
25 Net to City Property Tax (Fire Department)$1,307,366
26 Sales & Use Tax from Retail ($200 PSF Taxable)$3,129,000
27 Transient Occupancy Tax ($90/Room 65% Occupancy)$640,575
28 Business License Fees (5.5 Cents PSF) Retail + Office $107,250
29 Franchise Fees ($44.46 Per Resident)$1,275,557
Reconciliation No CFD 2015-1, 2015-2)
30 Total Revenues (No CFD 2015-1, 2015-2)$7,496,234
31 Total Expenses ($633.30 Per Resident)$18,169,377
32 Fiscal Year 2016/17 Deficit from Alberhill Villages WITHOUT CFD 2015-1, 2015-2 -$10,673,143
33 Total Revenues (With CFD 2015-1, 2015-2)$15,566,084
34 Total Expenses ($633.30 Per Resident)$18,169,377
35 Fiscal Year 2016/17 Deficit from Alberhill Villages WITH CFD 2015-1, 2015-2 -$2,603,293
Notes
A University/Education and Places of Worship exempt from property taxes
B Utilizes Ratio Demand whereby excess Office Space is not constructed
Ex E Static Fiscal Model (2016-17 Dollars)
Model Assumes Alberhill Villages Specific Plan Completely Built Out in Fiscal Year 2016/17 for Current Budget Comparisons
FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 FY 32/33 FY 33/34 FY 34/35 FY 35/36 FY 36/37 FY 37/38 FY 38/39 FY 39/40
Phase
#Residential Element
Total Units
(Residential)
or Square
Footage Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20
1 Mixed Use Rental 451 69 104 93 93 93
Mixed Use Rental 266 40 61 55 55 55
Mixed Use Rental 60 9 14 13 12 12
Single Family 190 29 44 39 39 39
Single Family 192 29 44 40 40 39
Mixed Use Rental 100 15 23 21 20 20
Mixed Use Rental 50 8 12 10 10 10
Subtotal 1,309 199 301 271 269 268
2 Single Family 160 40 40 50 30
Single Family 74 19 19 25 11
Multi-Family 275 69 69 93 44
Single Family 92 23 23 25 21
Multi-Family 237 59 59 80 39
Subtotal 838 210 210 273 145
3 Multi-Family 889 178 178 178 213 142
Single Family 361 72 72 72 93 52
Single Family 520 104 104 104 139 69
Single Family 106 21 21 21 32 11
Single Family 113 23 23 23 33 11
Single Family 87 17 17 17 24 12
Single Family 87 17 17 17 24 12
Subtotal 2,163 433 432 432 558 309
4 Single Family 514 103 103 103 103 102
Single Family 152 31 31 30 30 30
Multi-Family 350 70 70 70 70 70
Single Family 121 25 24 24 24 24
Single Family 166 34 33 33 33 33
Subtotal 1,303 263 261 260 260 259
5 Single 8 8
Subtotal 8 8
6 Mixed Use Rental 1,597 320 320 319 319 319
Multi-Family 1,026 206 205 205 205 205
Subtotal 2,623 526 525 525 524 524
Total Residential Units 8,244 199 301 271 269 478 210 273 578 432 432 558 572 261 260 260 793 525 525 524 525
Average Household Size 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48
Estimated Population Growth 691 1,048 943 936 1,662 731 950 2,010 1,503 1,503 1,942 1,990 908 905 905 2,760 1,827 1,827 1,824 1,827
Commercial Element
1 Institutional - University*1,130,000
Office (Institutional) - University*370,000
Retail 330,000 160,000 160,000 10,000
Office***319,500 40,000 40,000 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 21,500
Retail 200,000 20,400 30,400 30,400 30,400 30,400 50,000 8,000
Retail 382,000 42,000 50,000 50,000 99,000 99,000 42,000
Retail 272,500 57,000 99,000 99,000 17,500
Retail 200,000 81,500
Worship 60,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Hotels (2X150 rooms each)*180,000 160,000 90,000
Subtotal 3,444,000
4 School**N/A
Worship 60,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Subtotal 60,000
6 Office***323,000 4,500 26,000 26,000 24,495
Retail 180,000 90,000 90,000 -
Subtotal 503,000
Annual totals
Institutional (Education)81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000
Retail 160,000 160,000 30,400 30,400 30,400 30,400 30,400 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 100,000 99,500 99,000 99,000 99,000 99,000 99,000 99,000 99,000
Office 40,000 40,000 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 24,495
Hotel -90,000 -90,000
Worship 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Planned Commercial Sq. Footage 4,007,000
Forecasted Need Square Footage 2,750,995 200,000 215,000 38,000 134,000 38,000 134,000 128,000 158,500 62,500 158,500 62,500 312,000 125,500 221,000 125,000 140,000 125,000 125,000 125,000 123,495
Excess Commercial Space 1,256,005
Notes:
*University Space Based on Average of CSUSB & CSUSM Square Feet Per Student (80.98) Total Space Needed for 6,000 Students 486,000 Square Feet
*Institutional-University Office Space Projected Separate from General Office
**School Facility not scheduled for phasing (schools are off-rolls for property tax purposes)
***Total Office Absorption Estimated to be 400,495 square feet (Additional 242,005 - balance of Phase 6 Not Scheduled as there is forecasted lack of demand)
Hotel Shown in Year 7 as 160,000 square feet, this is based on initiative definition whereby 1 room = 1,062 sq. ft of space usage for entitlement planning (actual size is about 90,000)
Benchmarks are Year 1, Year 2, Year 7 and Year 11 (Match Initiative Benchmarks to avoid CFD 2015-1 & 2015-2)
Projects 80%/20% split between Retail (80%) and Office (20%) and excludes University and Places of Worship from Counting Against Ratios
Exhibit F
Alberhill Villages Phasing Plan (Based on Initiative)
FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 FY 32/33 FY 33/34 FY 34/35 FY 35/36 FY 36/37 FY 37/38 FY 38/39 FY 39/40
#Residential Elements (Annual Totals)Residential Units Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20
1 Single Family Residential Units 2,943 58 88 79 79 160 82 100 316 254 254 345 360 191 190 190 197 0 0 0 0
2 Multi-Family Units 5,301 141 214 192 190 318 128 173 261 178 178 213 212 70 70 70 596 525 524 524 524
3 Average Household Size 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48
4 Estimated Population Growth 693 1,051 943 936 1,663 731 950 2,008 1,503 1,503 1,942 1,991 908 905 905 2,760 1,827 1,824 1,824 1,824
Commercial Elements (Annual Totals)Commercial Sq. Ft.
5 Institutional (Education)486,000 81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000
6 Retail 1,564,500 160,000 160,000 30,400 30,400 30,400 30,400 30,400 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 100,000 99,500 99,000 99,000 99,000 99,000 99,000 99,000 99,000
7 Office 400,495 40,000 40,000 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 7,600 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 24,495
8 Hotel 180,000 90,000 90,000
9 Worship 120,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15000
10 School N/A
11 SFR Assessed Valuation/U $382,500 $392,496 $402,753 $413,278 $424,078 $435,161 $446,533 $458,202 $470,176 $482,463 $495,072 $508,009 $521,285 $534,908 $548,887 $563,231 $577,950 $593,053 $608,551 $624,455
12 Multi-Family Assessed Valuation/U $188,285 $193,205 $198,254 $203,435 $208,752 $214,207 $219,805 $225,549 $231,443 $237,492 $243,698 $250,067 $256,602 $263,308 $270,189 $277,249 $284,495 $291,929 $299,558 $307,387
13 Commercial Assessed Valuation/PSF $212.00 $225.00 $238.80 $253.45 $268.99 $285.49 $303.00 $321.58 $341.30 $362.23 $384.45 $408.03 $433.05 $459.61 $487.80 $517.72 $549.47 $583.17 $618.93 $656.89
14 Projected Taxable Sales (PSF)$221.74 $227.53 $233.48 $239.58 $245.84 $252.27 $258.86 $265.63 $272.57 $279.69 $287.00 $294.50 $302.20 $310.09 $318.20 $326.51 $335.04 $343.80 $352.78 $362.00
15 Projected Hotel Room Rate $90.00 $99.78 $102.39 $105.06 $107.81 $110.63 $113.52 $116.48 $119.53 $122.65 $125.86 $129.15 $132.52 $135.98 $139.54 $143.18 $146.93 $150.77 $154.71 $158.75
16 Total Assessed Valuation SFR/Annual $22,185,000 $34,539,637 $31,817,484 $32,648,971 $67,852,529 $35,683,181 $44,653,280 $144,791,846 $119,424,764 $122,545,692 $170,799,691 $182,883,338 $99,565,450 $101,632,486 $104,288,448 $110,956,432 $0 $0 $0 $0
17 Aggregate SFR Valuation $22,185,000 $57,057,412 $89,730,757 $123,725,689 $193,434,104 $232,018,797 $280,152,359 $429,146,490 $555,008,451 $685,879,270 $866,967,150 $1,062,854,995 $1,178,363,270 $1,297,671,205 $1,421,424,721 $1,553,702,525 $1,577,008,062 $1,600,663,183 $1,624,673,131 $1,649,043,228
18 Total Assessed Valuation Multi-Family $26,548,185 $41,345,967 $38,064,862 $38,652,740 $66,383,090 $27,418,517 $38,026,272 $58,868,343 $41,196,940 $42,273,540 $51,907,710 $53,014,148 $17,962,121 $18,431,525 $18,913,196 $165,240,614 $149,359,723 $152,971,011 $156,968,603 $161,070,663
19 Aggregate Multi-Family Valuation $26,548,185 $68,292,374 $107,381,622 $147,645,087 $216,242,852 $246,905,013 $288,634,860 $351,832,726 $398,307,157 $446,555,304 $505,161,344 $565,752,912 $592,201,327 $619,515,872 $647,721,806 $822,678,247 $984,378,144 $1,152,114,827 $1,326,365,152 $1,507,331,292
20 Total Assessed Valuation Commercial $42,400,000 $45,000,392 $9,074,451 $9,630,987 $10,221,655 $10,848,549 $38,783,632 $20,098,746 $21,331,402 $22,639,657 $24,028,147 $88,134,198 $54,348,163 $57,451,530 $60,975,032 $64,714,631 $68,683,579 $72,895,943 $77,366,651 $81,122,925
21 Aggregate Commercial Valuation $42,400,000 $52,110,451 $62,523,094 $73,682,595 $85,636,383 $125,704,561 $147,688,875 $171,235,610 $196,443,801 $223,418,605 $314,904,082 $373,975,807 $437,036,974 $504,567,561 $576,850,705 $654,187,045 $736,895,794 $825,315,882 $918,818,546 $932,600,824
22 Total Assessed Valuation Hotel $18,544,050 $21,638,101
23 Aggregate Hotel Valuation $18,544,050 $18,822,211 $19,104,544 $19,104,544 $19,391,112 $41,029,213 $41,644,651 $42,269,321 $42,903,361 $43,546,911 $44,200,115 $44,863,117 $45,536,063 $46,219,104
24 Total Assessed Valuation $91,133,185 $177,460,237 $259,635,473 $345,053,371 $495,313,340 $604,628,370 $735,020,144 $971,037,037 $1,168,863,954 $1,374,957,723 $1,706,423,688 $2,043,612,927 $2,249,246,222 $2,464,023,959 $2,688,900,593 $3,074,114,728 $3,342,482,115 $3,622,957,009 $3,915,392,892 $4,135,194,448
25 Total Property Tax (Base Rate-1%)$911,332 $1,774,602 $2,596,355 $3,450,534 $4,953,133 $6,046,284 $7,350,201 $9,710,370 $11,688,640 $13,749,577 $17,064,237 $20,436,129 $22,492,462 $24,640,240 $26,889,006 $30,741,147 $33,424,821 $36,229,570 $39,153,929 $41,351,944
26 City of Lake Elsinore Share Prop Tax (General)0.04463063 $40,673 $79,202 $115,877 $153,999 $221,061 $269,849 $328,044 $433,380 $521,671 $613,652 $761,588 $912,077 $1,003,853 $1,099,709 $1,200,073 $1,371,997 $1,491,771 $1,616,949 $1,747,465 $1,845,563
27 City of Lake Elsinore Prop Tax (Fire)0.056294595 $51,303 $99,901 $146,161 $194,246 $278,835 $340,373 $413,777 $546,641 $658,007 $774,027 $1,150,444 $1,150,444 $1,266,204 $1,387,112 $1,513,706 $1,730,560 $1,881,637 $2,039,529 $2,204,155 $2,327,891
28 Projected Taxable Sales $35,478,400 $36,405,557 $7,097,819 $7,283,307 $7,473,641 $7,668,950 $7,869,363 $13,281,271 $13,628,350 $13,984,500 $14,349,957 $29,449,928 $30,068,446 $30,699,178 $31,501,440 $32,324,667 $33,169,407 $34,036,223 $34,925,692 $35,838,405
29 Aggregate Taxable Sales $35,478,400 $72,811,114 $81,811,706 $91,232,998 $101,090,831 $111,401,588 $122,182,208 $138,656,466 $155,908,326 $173,967,178 $192,863,419 $227,353,447 $263,363,321 $300,944,972 $340,311,007 $381,529,021 $424,668,926 $469,803,023 $517,006,077 $566,355,402
30 City of Lake Elsinore Share of Sales Tax (1%)$354,784 $728,111 $818,117 $912,330 $1,010,908 $1,114,016 $1,221,822 $1,386,565 $1,559,083 $1,739,672 $1,928,634 $2,273,534 $2,633,633 $3,009,450 $3,403,110 $3,815,290 $4,246,689 $4,698,030 $5,170,061 $5,663,554
31 Commercial Square Footage Annually 200,000 200,000 38,000 38,000 38,000 38,000 38,000 62,500 62,500 62,500 62,500 126,000 125,500 125,000 125,000 125,000 125,000 125,000 125,000 123,495
32 Commercial Sq. Ft. Subject to Business License 200,000 400,000 438,000 476,000 514,000 552,000 590,000 652,500 715,000 777,500 840,000 966,000 1,091,500 1,216,500 1,341,500 1,466,500 1,591,500 1,716,500 1,841,500 1,964,995
33 Estimated Business License Fees PSF $0.061 $0.063 $0.064 $0.066 $0.068 $0.069 $0.071 $0.073 $0.075 $0.077 $0.079 $0.081 $0.083 $0.085 $0.088 $0.090 $0.092 $0.095 $0.097 $0.100
34 Projected Business License Fees Paid to City $12,200 $25,038 $28,133 $31,372 $34,762 $38,308 $42,015 $47,680 $53,612 $59,822 $66,320 $78,261 $90,740 $103,774 $117,428 $131,725 $146,688 $162,344 $178,718 $195,686
35 Projected Hotel Taxes (TOT)$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $403,979 $414,537 $425,370 $436,486 $447,893 $919,195 $943,216 $967,865 $993,158 $1,019,113 $1,045,745 $1,073,073 $1,101,116 $1,129,892
36 Projected Franchise Fees/Taxes Per Person $49.29 $50.58 $51.90 $53.26 $54.65 $56.08 $57.54 $59.05 $60.59 $62.17 $63.80 $65.46 $67.17 $68.93 $70.73 $72.58 $74.48 $76.42 $78.42 $80.47
37 Projected Franchise Fees/Annual Growth $34,134 $53,156 $48,946 $49,854 $90,903 $40,980 $54,667 $118,560 $91,086 $93,466 $123,882 $130,309 $61,013 $62,368 $63,997 $200,293 $136,068 $139,358 $143,000 $146,737
38 Projected Total Franchise Fees to City of LE $34,134 $88,182 $139,432 $192,930 $288,875 $337,405 $400,889 $529,926 $634,860 $744,917 $888,266 $1,041,788 $1,130,026 $1,221,925 $1,317,855 $1,552,588 $1,729,229 $1,913,777 $2,106,789 $2,308,583
39 Total Estimated Revenue to City of Lake Elsinore $493,095 $1,020,433 $1,247,720 $1,484,878 $1,834,442 $2,099,951 $2,810,526 $3,358,728 $3,852,604 $4,368,576 $5,243,144 $6,375,300 $7,067,672 $7,789,836 $8,545,330 $9,621,272 $10,541,759 $11,503,702 $12,508,303 $13,471,169
40 Aggregate Revenue to the City of Lake Elsinore $493,095 $1,513,528 $2,761,247 $4,246,125 $6,080,567 $8,180,518 $10,991,044 $14,349,773 $18,202,377 $22,570,953 $27,814,098 $34,189,397 $41,257,069 $49,046,905 $57,592,235 $67,213,507 $77,755,267 $89,258,969 $101,767,272 $115,238,441
Notes:
A SFR Based on 2016 New Home Price of $345,000 Adjusted by CPI (2.6133%) Per Year to Start Year 1
B Multi Family Based on 2016 Average Unit Value of $169,825 Adjusted by CPO (2.6133%) Per Year to Start Year 1
C Commercial Construction Based on $191.75 PSF, Adjusted by CPI (2.6133%) Per Year to Start Year
D Aggregate Valuation includes 1.5% Annual Increase (Proposition 13 Maximum is 2%)
E Commercial (Retail Only) Sales Tax Based on 2016 Estimated $200 PSF Taxable Sales, Adjusted by CPI (2.6133%) Per Year to Start Year
F Business License Fees Estimated at 5.5 cents PSF in 2016, Adjusted by CPI (2.6133%) Per Year to Start Year
G Institutional (University), Worship and School Not Calculated in Property Tax or Business License Fees (All Projected to be Exempt)
H Construction Costs Projected to be $123.6k/Room 2026 & $144.3k/Room in 2031
I Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT)-Hotel Tax based on 10% TOT Rate 65% Occupancy $90/Night (2016 Base Year) Adjusts by CPI
J Hotel in Year 7 shows as 160,000 square feet for ration purposes under initiative (1 room 1,062 square feet for ratio calculations) while actual hard construction is about 90,000 square feet (Year 7 shows 160,000, 2nd hotel in Year 12 shown in actual estimated)
K Hotel square footage for initiative purposes does not impact construction which are established separately and not per square foot.
Exhibit G Projected Tax Revenue Initiative Phasing
City of Lake Elsinore Estimated Tax Revenue from Alberhill Village Development - 20 Year Absorption
# Item FY 16/17 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 FY 32/33 FY 33/34 FY 34/35 FY 35/36 FY 36/37 FY 37/38 FY 38/39 FY 39/40
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20
1 Estimated Revenue from Alberhill Villages (Taxes/Fees)0 $493,095 $1,020,433 $1,247,720 $1,484,878 $1,834,442 $2,099,951 $2,810,526 $3,358,728 $3,852,604 $4,368,576 $5,243,144 $6,375,300 $7,067,672 $7,789,836 $8,545,330 $9,621,272 $10,541,759 $11,503,702 $12,508,303 $13,471,169
2 Estimated Number of New Residents 0 693 1051 943 936 1663 731 950 2008 1503 1503 1942 1991 908 905 905 2760 1827 1824 1824 1824
3 Aggregate Total of New Residents 0 693 1744 2687 3623 5286 6017 6967 8975 10478 11981 13923 15914 16822 17727 18632 21392 23219 25043 26867 28690
4 Cost to Provide Services Per Resident $633.30 $712.45 $737.38 $763.19 $789.90 $817.55 $846.17 $875.78 $906.43 $938.16 $970.99 $1,004.98 $1,040.15 $1,076.56 $1,114.24 $1,153.24 $1,193.60 $1,235.38 $1,278.61 $1,323.37 $1,369.68
5 Total Cost to Provide Municipal Services 0 $493,728 $1,285,991 $2,050,692 $2,861,808 $4,321,569 $5,091,405 $6,101,559 $8,135,209 $9,830,040 $11,633,431 $13,992,337 $16,552,947 $18,109,892 $19,752,132 $21,487,168 $25,533,491 $28,684,288 $32,020,230 $35,554,982 $39,296,119
6 Surplus (Deficit) to the City of Lake Elsinore 0 -$633 -$265,558 -$802,972 -$1,376,930 -$2,487,127 -$2,991,454 -$3,291,033 -$4,776,481 -$5,977,436 -$7,264,855 -$8,749,193 -$10,177,647 -$11,042,220 -$11,962,296 -$12,941,838 -$15,912,219 -$18,142,529 -$20,516,528 -$23,046,679 -$25,824,950
7 Aggregate Surplus (Deficit) to the City of Lake Elsinore 0 -$633 -$266,191 -$1,069,162 -$2,446,092 -$4,933,219 -$7,924,673 -$11,215,706 -$15,992,188 -$21,969,624 -$29,234,479 -$37,983,672 -$48,161,319 -$59,203,539 -$71,165,836 -$84,107,673 -$100,019,892 -$118,162,422 -$138,678,950 -$161,725,629 -$187,550,579
# Item FY 16/17 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 FY 32/33 FY 33/34 FY 34/35 FY 35/36 FY 36/37 FY 37/38 FY 38/39 FY 39/40
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20
8 Estimated Revenue from Alberhill Villages (Taxes/Fees)0 $493,095 $1,020,433 $1,247,720 $1,484,878 $1,834,442 $2,099,951 $2,810,526 $3,358,728 $3,852,604 $4,368,576 $5,243,144 $6,375,300 $7,067,672 $7,789,836 $8,545,330 $9,621,272 $10,541,759 $11,503,702 $12,508,303 $13,471,169
9 Estimated Number of New Residents 0 693 1051 943 936 1663 731 950 2008 1503 1503 1942 1991 908 905 905 2760 1827 1824 1824 1824
10 Aggregate Total of New Residents 0 693 1744 2687 3623 5286 6017 6967 8975 10478 11981 13923 15914 16822 17727 18632 21392 23219 25043 26867 28690
11 Cost to Provide Services Per Resident $633.30 $712.45 $737.38 $763.19 $789.90 $817.55 $846.17 $875.78 $906.43 $938.16 $970.99 $1,004.98 $1,040.15 $1,076.56 $1,114.24 $1,153.24 $1,193.60 $1,235.38 $1,278.61 $1,323.37 $1,369.68
12 Total Cost to Provide Municipal Services 0 $493,728 $1,285,991 $2,050,692 $2,861,808 $4,321,569 $5,091,405 $6,101,559 $8,135,209 $9,830,040 $11,633,431 $13,992,337 $16,552,947 $18,109,892 $19,752,132 $21,487,168 $25,533,491 $28,684,288 $32,020,230 $35,554,982 $39,296,119
13 Finance Expense for Regional Sports Park $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000
14 Total Expense to City (Services + Sports Park)$3,263,728 $4,055,991 $4,820,692 $5,631,808 $7,091,569 $7,861,405 $8,871,559 $10,905,209 $12,600,040 $14,403,431 $16,762,337 $19,322,947 $20,879,892 $22,522,132 $24,257,168 $28,303,491 $31,454,288 $34,790,230 $38,324,982 $42,066,119
15 Surplus (Deficit) to the City of Lake Elsinore 0 -$2,770,633 -$3,035,558 -$3,572,972 -$4,146,930 -$5,257,127 -$5,761,454 -$6,061,033 -$7,546,481 -$8,747,436 -$10,034,855 -$11,519,193 -$12,947,647 -$13,812,220 -$14,732,296 -$15,711,838 -$18,682,219 -$20,912,529 -$23,286,528 -$25,816,679 -$28,594,950
16 Aggregate Surplus (Deficit) to the City of Lake Elsinore 0 -$2,770,633 -$5,806,191 -$9,379,162 -$13,526,092 -$18,783,219 -$24,544,673 -$30,605,706 -$38,152,188 -$46,899,624 -$56,934,479 -$68,453,672 -$81,401,319 -$95,213,539 -$109,945,836 -$125,657,673 -$144,339,892 -$165,252,422 -$188,538,950 -$214,355,629 -$242,950,579
# Item FY 16/17 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 FY 32/33 FY 33/34 FY 34/35 FY 35/36 FY 36/37 FY 37/38 FY 38/39 FY 39/40
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20
17 Estimated Revenue from Alberhill Villages (Taxes/Fees)0 $493,095 $1,020,433 $1,247,720 $1,484,878 $1,834,442 $2,099,951 $2,810,526 $3,358,728 $3,852,604 $4,368,576 $5,243,144 $6,375,300 $7,067,672 $7,789,836 $8,545,330 $9,621,272 $10,541,759 $11,503,702 $12,508,303 $13,471,169
18 Single Family Annually 58 88 79 79 160 82 100 316 254 254 345 360 191 190 190 197 ----
19 Single Family Units Subject to CFD 2015-1 58 146 225 304 464 546 646 962 1,216 1,470 1,815 2,175 2,366 2,556 2,746 2,943 2,943 2,943 2,943 2,943
20 CFD 2015-1 Per SFR (Adjusted by 4% Annually)$833.40 $866.74 $901.41 $937.46 $974.96 $1,013.96 $1,054.52 $1,096.70 $1,140.57 $1,186.19 $1,233.64 $1,282.98 $1,334.30 $1,387.67 $1,443.18 $1,500.91 $1,560.94 $1,623.38 $1,688.32 $1,755.85
21 Total CFD 2015-1 Revenue from SFR $48,337 $126,543 $202,816 $284,988 $452,381 $553,621 $681,218 $1,055,023 $1,386,928 $1,743,696 $2,239,049 $2,790,484 $3,156,954 $3,546,890 $3,962,970 $4,417,167 $4,593,854 $4,777,608 $4,968,712 $5,167,461
22 CFD 2015-2 Per SFR (Adjusted by 4% Annually)$584.93 $608.33 $632.66 $657.97 $684.29 $711.66 $740.12 $769.73 $800.52 $832.54 $865.84 $900.47 $936.49 $973.95 $1,012.91 $1,053.43 $1,095.56 $1,139.39 $1,184.96 $1,232.36
23 Total CFD 2015-2 Revenue Annually $33,926 $88,816 $142,349 $200,022 $317,508 $388,565 $478,119 $740,478 $973,429 $1,223,831 $1,571,498 $1,958,528 $2,215,740 $2,489,420 $2,781,449 $3,100,232 $3,224,242 $3,353,211 $3,487,340 $3,626,833
24 Multi-Family Units Annually 141 214 192 190 318 128 173 261 178 178 213 212 70 70 70 596 525 524 524 524
25 Multi-Family Units (Subject to CFD 2015-1)141 355 547 737 1,055 1,183 1,356 1,617 1,795 1,973 2,186 2,398 2,468 2,538 2,608 3,204 3,729 4,253 4,777 5,301
26 CFD 2015-1 Per Multi-Family (Adjusted by 4% Annually)$561.53 $583.99 $607.35 $631.64 $656.91 $683.19 $710.51 $738.94 $768.49 $799.23 $831.20 $864.45 $899.03 $934.99 $972.39 $1,011.28 $1,051.74 $1,093.80 $1,137.56 $1,183.06
27 Total CFD Revenue from Multi-Family $79,176 $207,317 $332,221 $465,522 $693,041 $808,210 $963,458 $1,194,858 $1,379,444 $1,576,885 $1,817,007 $2,072,950 $2,218,800 $2,373,001 $2,535,989 $3,240,153 $3,921,920 $4,651,951 $5,434,109 $6,271,396
28 CFD 2015-2 Per SFR (Adjusted by 4% Annually)$409.45 $425.83 $442.86 $460.58 $479.00 $498.16 $518.08 $538.81 $560.36 $582.78 $606.09 $630.33 $655.54 $681.76 $709.03 $737.40 $766.89 $797.57 $829.47 $862.65
29 Total CFD 2015-2 Revenue Annually $57,732 $151,169 $242,245 $339,444 $505,344 $589,322 $702,523 $871,253 $1,005,847 $1,149,815 $1,324,904 $1,511,530 $1,617,879 $1,730,318 $1,849,163 $2,362,618 $2,859,741 $3,392,056 $3,962,381 $4,572,904
30 Commercial Square Footage Annually 200,000 200,000 38,000 38,000 38,000 38,000 128,000 62,500 62,500 62,500 62,500 216,000 125,500 125,000 125,000 125,000 125,000 125,000 125,000 123,495
31 Commercial Square Footage Subject to CFD 2015-2)200,000 400,000 438,000 476,000 514,000 552,000 680,000 742,500 805,000 867,500 930,000 1,146,000 1,271,500 1,396,500 1,521,500 1,646,500 1,771,500 1,896,500 2,021,500 2,144,995
32 CFD 2015-2 Per Square Foot (Adjusted by 4% Annually)$0.035 $0.0364 $0.0379 $0.0394 $0.0409 $0.0426 $0.0443 $0.0461 $0.0479 $0.0498 $0.0518 $0.0539 $0.0560 $0.0583 $0.0606 $0.0630 $0.0656 $0.0682 $0.0709 $0.0737
33 Total CFD 2015-2 Revenue from Commercial $7,000 $14,560 $16,581 $18,740 $21,046 $23,506 $30,115 $34,198 $38,559 $43,215 $48,182 $61,748 $71,250 $81,385 $92,216 $103,784 $116,130 $129,297 $143,332 $158,171
34 Total Revenue from Alberhill Villages (ALL Sources)$719,266 $1,608,838 $2,183,932 $2,793,595 $3,823,762 $4,463,175 $5,665,959 $7,254,538 $8,636,811 $10,106,019 $12,243,784 $14,770,540 $16,348,295 $18,010,850 $19,767,117 $22,845,227 $25,257,645 $27,807,825 $30,504,176 $33,267,935
35 Estimated Number of New Residents 0 693 1051 943 936 1663 731 950 2008 1503 1503 1942 1991 908 905 905 2760 1827 1824 1824 1824
36 Aggregate Total of New Residents 0 693 1744 2687 3623 5286 6017 6967 8975 10478 11981 13923 15914 16822 17727 18632 21392 23219 25043 26867 28690
37 Cost to Provide Services Per Resident $633.30 $712.45 $737.38 $763.19 $789.90 $817.55 $846.17 $875.78 $906.43 $938.16 $970.99 $1,004.98 $1,040.15 $1,076.56 $1,114.24 $1,153.24 $1,193.60 $1,235.38 $1,278.61 $1,323.37 $1,369.68
38 Total Cost to Provide Municipal Services 0 $493,728 $1,285,991 $2,050,692 $2,861,808 $4,321,569 $5,091,405 $6,101,559 $8,135,209 $9,830,040 $11,633,431 $13,992,337 $16,552,947 $18,109,892 $19,752,132 $21,487,168 $25,533,491 $28,684,288 $32,020,230 $35,554,982 $39,296,119
39 Surplus (Deficit) to the City of Lake Elsinore 0 $225,538 $322,847 $133,240 -$68,213 -$497,807 -$628,230 -$435,600 -$880,671 -$1,193,229 -$1,527,412 -$1,748,553 -$1,782,407 -$1,761,597 -$1,741,282 -$1,720,050 -$2,688,265 -$3,426,643 -$4,212,405 -$5,050,805 -$6,028,184
40 Aggregate Surplus (Deficit) to the City of Lake Elsinore 0 $225,538 $548,386 $681,626 $613,413 $115,606 -$512,625 -$948,225 -$1,828,896 -$3,022,125 -$4,549,538 -$6,298,091 -$8,080,498 -$9,842,095 -$11,583,377 -$13,303,428 -$15,991,692 -$19,418,335 -$23,630,740 -$28,681,545 -$34,709,730
Notes:
A Financing Expense for Regional Sports Park Based on $42.35 million capital cost plus 1.5% (Cost of Issuance) Total $43.00 30-Years, 5%: $2,770,000 annually (shown for First 20 Years, Bond Extends additional 10 years)
B Commercial Square Footage for Institutional (University), Worship and School Not included for CFD 2015-2 Calculations
C CFD 2015-1 Based on 2016 Amounts of $712.40/Unit SFR, $499.20/Unit Multi-Family, Adjusted by 4% Annually to Reach First Year (FY 20/21)
D CFD 2015-2 Based on 2016 Amounts of $500/Unit SFR, $350/Unit Multi-Family and $.03 PSF for Commercial, Adjusted by 4% Annually to Reach First Year (FY 20/21)
Exhibit H Reconciliation of Initiative Phasing
Reconciliation of Revenue vs. Expenses Alberhill Villages - 20 Year Absorption
Model 2: Revenue vs. Expense (No CFD 2015-1, No CFD 2015-2 Revenue, No City Paid/Financed Sports Park)
Model 3: Revenue vs. Expense (No CFD 2015-1, No CFD 2015-2 Revenue, City Financially Responsible for Paying/Financing Sports Park)
Model 4: Revenue vs. Expense (With Revenue from CFD 2015-1, CFD 2015-2, No City Paid/Financed Sports Park)
FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 FY 32/33 FY 33/34 FY 34/35 FY 35/36 FY 36/37 FY 37/38 FY 38/39 FY 39/40
Phase
#Residential Element
Total Units
(Residential) or
Square Footage
(Commercial) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20
1 Mixed Use Rental 451 90 90 90 90 90
Mixed Use Rental 266 53 53 53 53 53
Mixed Use Rental 60 12 12 12 12 12
Single Family 190 38 38 38 38 38
Single Family 192 38 38 38 38 38
Mixed Use Rental 100 20 20 20 20 20
Mixed Use Rental 50 10 10 10 10 10
Subtotal 1,309 262 262 262 262 262
2 Single Family 160 40 40 40 40
Single Family 74 19 19 19 19
Multi-Family 275 69 69 69 69
Single Family 92 23 23 23 23
Multi-Family 237 59 59 59 59
Subtotal 838 210 210 210 210
3 Multi-Family 889 178 178 178 178 178
Single Family 361 72 72 72 72 72
Single Family 520 104 104 104 104 104
Single Family 106 21 21 21 21 21
Single Family 113 23 23 23 23 23
Single Family 87 17 17 17 17 17
Single Family 87 17 17 17 17 17
Subtotal 2,163 433 432 432 432 432
4 Single Family 514 103 103 103 103 102
Single Family 152 31 31 30 30 30
Multi-Family 350 70 70 70 70 70
Single Family 121 25 24 24 24 24
Single Family 166 34 33 33 33 33
Subtotal 1,303 263 261 260 260 259
5 Single 8 8
Subtotal 8 8
6 Mixed Use Rental 1,597 320 320 319 319 319
Multi-Family 1,026 206 205 205 205 205
Subtotal 2,623 526 525 525 524 524
Total Residential Units 8,244 262 262 262 262 471 210 210 643 432 432 432 695 261 260 260 793 525 525 524 524
Average Household Size 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48
Estimated Population Growth 911 911 911 911 1,640 731 731 2,236 1,503 1,503 1,503 2,418 908 905 905 2,760 1,827 1,827 1,824 1,824
Commercial Element
1 Institutional - University*1,130,000 54,000 54,000 54,000 54,000 54,000 54,000
Office (Institutional) - University*370,000 27,000 27,000 27,000 27,000 27,000 27,000
Retail 330,000 49,863 49,863 49,863 49,863 89,764 39,997 789
Office***319,500 12,718 12,718 12,718 12,718 22,896 10,202 10,202 31,218 20,987 20,987 20,987 33,754 12,680 12,631 12,631 38,525 20,927
Retail 200,000 39,219 122,390 38,392
Retail 382,000 43,887 82,279 82,279 132,332 41,223
Retail 272,500 8,487 49,520 49,520 151,035 13,938
Retail 200,000 86,053 99,992 13,955
Worship 60,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Hotels (2X150 rooms each)180,000 90,000 90,000
Subtotal 3,444,000
4 School**N/A
Worship 60,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Subtotal 60,000
6 Office***323,000 12,631 12,631 38,525 4,578 25,505 25,456 25,456
Retail 180,000 85,846 94,154
Subtotal 503,000
Annual totals
Institutional (Education)81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000
Retail 49,863 49,863 49,863 49,863 89,764 39,997 40,008 122,390 82,279 82,279 82,279 132,332 49,710 49,520 49,520 151,035 99,992 99,992 99,801 94,154
Office 12,718 12,718 12,718 12,718 22,896 10,202 10,202 31,218 20,987 20,987 20,987 33,754 12,680 12,631 12,631 38,525 25,505 25,505 25,456 25,456
Hotel 90,000 90,000
Worship 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Planned Commercial Sq. Footage 4,007,000
Forecasted Need Square Footage 2,750,995 62,581 77,581 62,581 158,581 202,660 146,199 50,210 249,608 103,266 289,266 103,266 262,086 62,390 158,151 62,151 204,560 125,497 125,497 125,258 119,610
Excess Commercial Space 1,256,005
Notes:
Retail Absorption based on Lake Elsinore Average of 54.73 Square Feet Total Retail Per Person (92.3% Occupied) (Regional Average is about 48 SF/Person)
*University Space Based on Average of CSUSB & CSUSM Square Feet Per Student (80.98) Total Space Needed for 6,000 Students 486,000 Square Feet
*Institutional-University Office Space Projected Separate from General Office
**School Facility not scheduled for phasing (schools are off-rolls for property tax purposes)
***Total Office Absorption Estimated to be 400,495 square feet (Additional 242,005 - balance of Phase 6 Not Scheduled as there is forecasted lack of demand)
Office Space Absorption based on 13.96 SF/Person (Regional Average) Current Inventory is 6.84 SF/Person
Exhibit I
Alberhill Village Phasing Matrix for Fiscal Analysis - 20 Year Absorption (DMG, Inc. Phasing)
FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 FY 32/33 FY 33/34 FY 34/35 FY 35/36 FY 36/37 FY 37/38 FY 38/39 FY 39/40
#Residential Elements (Annual Totals)Residential Units Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20
1 Single Family Residential Units 2,943 76 76 76 76 158 82 82 336 254 254 254 447 192 192 191 197 0 0 0 0
2 Multi-Family Units 5,301 185 185 185 185 313 128 128 306 178 178 178 248 70 70 70 596 525 525 524 524
3 Average Household Size 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48
4 Estimated Population Growth 908 908 908 908 1,639 731 731 2,234 1,503 1,503 1,503 2,419 912 912 908 2,760 1,827 1,827 1,824 1,824
Commercial Elements (Annual Totals)Commercial Sq. Ft.
5 Institutional (Education)486,000 81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000 81,000
6 Retail 1,564,500 49,863 49,863 49,863 49,863 89,764 39,997 40,008 122,390 82,279 82,279 82,279 132,332 49,710 49,520 49,520 151,035 99,992 99,992 99,801 94,150
7 Office 400,495 12,718 12,718 12,718 12,718 22,896 10,202 10,202 31,218 20,987 20,987 20,987 33,754 12,680 12,631 12,631 38,525 25,505 25,505 25,456 25,457
8 Hotel 180,000 90,000 90,000
9 Worship 120,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15000
10 School N/A
11 SFR Assessed Valuation/U $382,500 $392,496 $402,753 $413,278 $424,078 $435,161 $446,533 $458,202 $470,176 $482,463 $495,072 $508,009 $521,285 $534,908 $548,887 $563,231 $577,950 $593,053 $608,551 $624,455
12 Multi-Family Assessed Valuation/U $188,285 $193,205 $198,254 $203,435 $208,752 $214,207 $219,805 $225,549 $231,443 $237,492 $243,698 $250,067 $256,602 $263,308 $270,189 $277,249 $284,495 $291,929 $299,558 $307,387
13 Commercial Assessed Valuation/PSF $212.00 $225.00 $238.80 $253.45 $268.99 $285.49 $303.00 $321.58 $341.30 $362.23 $384.45 $408.03 $433.05 $459.61 $487.80 $517.72 $549.47 $583.17 $618.93 $656.89
14 Projected Taxable Sales (PSF)$221.74 $227.53 $233.48 $239.58 $245.84 $252.27 $258.86 $265.63 $272.57 $279.69 $287.00 $294.50 $302.20 $310.09 $318.20 $326.51 $335.04 $343.80 $352.78 $362.00
15 Projected Hotel Room Rate $90.00 $99.78 $102.39 $105.06 $107.81 $110.63 $113.52 $116.48 $119.53 $122.65 $125.86 $129.15 $132.52 $135.98 $139.54 $143.18 $146.93 $150.77 $154.71 $158.75
16 Total Assessed Valuation SFR/Annual $29,070,000 $29,829,686 $30,609,226 $31,409,136 $67,004,373 $35,683,181 $36,615,690 $153,955,887 $119,424,764 $122,545,692 $125,748,178 $227,080,145 $100,086,735 $102,702,302 $104,837,335 $110,956,432 $0 $0 $0 $0
17 Aggregate SFR Valuation $29,070,000 $59,335,736 $90,834,998 $123,606,659 $192,465,132 $231,035,290 $271,116,509 $429,139,143 $555,000,994 $685,871,701 $821,907,955 $1,061,316,719 $1,177,323,205 $1,297,685,355 $1,421,987,970 $1,554,274,221 $1,577,588,335 $1,601,252,160 $1,625,270,942 $1,649,650,006
18 Total Assessed Valuation Multi-Family $34,832,725 $35,743,009 $36,677,081 $37,635,563 $65,339,330 $27,418,517 $28,135,045 $69,018,057 $41,196,940 $42,273,540 $43,378,274 $62,016,550 $17,962,121 $18,431,525 $18,913,196 $165,240,614 $149,359,723 $153,262,940 $156,968,603 $161,070,663
19 Aggregate Multi-Family Valuation $34,832,725 $71,098,224 $108,841,778 $148,109,968 $215,670,948 $246,324,529 $278,154,442 $351,344,816 $397,811,929 $446,052,648 $496,121,712 $565,580,088 $592,025,910 $619,337,824 $647,541,087 $822,494,818 $984,191,963 $1,152,217,783 $1,326,469,652 $1,507,437,360
20 Total Assessed Valuation Commercial $13,267,172 $14,080,848 $14,944,426 $15,860,968 $54,513,700 $14,331,219 $15,213,485 $49,397,251 $35,244,937 $70,007,615 $39,700,650 $67,767,854 $27,018,182 $28,565,360 $30,317,274 $98,138,444 $68,956,665 $73,185,778 $77,525,717 $78,568,928
21 Aggregate Commercial Valuation $13,267,172 $28,410,606 $44,697,732 $99,881,898 $115,711,346 $132,660,502 $184,047,660 $222,053,312 $295,391,726 $339,523,252 $412,383,955 $445,587,897 $480,837,075 $518,366,905 $624,280,853 $702,601,731 $786,326,534 $875,647,149 $967,350,784 $981,861,046
22 Total Assessed Valuation Hotel $18,000,000 $20,550,000
23 Aggregate Hotel Valuation $18,000,000 $18,270,000 $18,544,050 $18,822,211 $19,104,544 $39,654,544 $40,249,362 $40,853,103 $41,465,899 $42,087,888 $42,719,206 $43,359,994 $44,010,394 $44,670,550 $45,340,608 $46,020,717
24 Total Assessed Valuation $77,169,897 $158,844,566 $244,374,509 $371,598,526 $541,847,425 $628,290,320 $751,862,661 $1,021,359,482 $1,267,309,194 $1,511,102,145 $1,770,662,983 $2,113,337,806 $2,291,652,089 $2,477,477,971 $2,736,529,115 $3,122,730,764 $3,392,117,225 $3,673,787,642 $3,964,431,986 $4,184,969,129
25 Total Property Tax (Base Rate-1%)$771,699 $1,588,446 $2,443,745 $3,715,985 $5,418,474 $6,282,903 $7,518,627 $10,213,595 $12,673,092 $15,111,021 $17,706,630 $21,133,378 $22,916,521 $24,774,780 $27,365,291 $31,227,308 $33,921,172 $36,737,876 $39,644,320 $41,849,691
26 City of Lake Elsinore Share Prop Tax (General)0.04463063 $34,441 $70,893 $109,066 $165,847 $241,830 $280,410 $335,561 $455,839 $565,608 $674,414 $790,258 $943,196 $1,022,779 $1,105,714 $1,221,330 $1,393,694 $1,513,923 $1,639,635 $1,769,351 $1,867,778
27 City of Lake Elsinore Prop Tax (Fire)0.056294595 $43,442 $89,421 $137,570 $209,190 $305,031 $353,693 $423,258 $574,970 $713,427 $850,669 $1,189,695 $1,189,695 $1,290,076 $1,394,686 $1,540,518 $1,757,929 $1,909,579 $2,068,144 $2,231,761 $2,355,911
28 Projected Taxable Sales $11,056,622 $11,345,564 $11,642,058 $11,946,300 $22,067,892 $10,089,967 $10,356,495 $32,509,894 $22,426,540 $23,012,613 $23,614,002 $38,971,679 $15,022,135 $15,355,791 $15,757,084 $49,314,707 $33,501,771 $34,377,273 $35,208,273 $34,082,685
29 Aggregate Taxable Sales $11,056,622 $22,691,129 $34,926,174 $47,785,199 $71,101,862 $83,049,934 $95,576,773 $130,584,376 $156,423,478 $183,523,906 $211,933,938 $256,444,087 $278,167,875 $300,793,027 $324,410,735 $382,203,268 $425,693,157 $471,195,070 $518,717,083 $566,355,402
30 City of Lake Elsinore Share of Sales Tax (1%)$110,566 $226,911 $349,262 $477,852 $711,019 $830,499 $955,768 $1,305,844 $1,564,235 $1,835,239 $2,119,339 $2,564,441 $2,781,679 $3,007,930 $3,244,107 $3,822,033 $4,256,932 $4,711,951 $5,187,171 $5,663,554
31 Commercial Square Footage Annually 62,581 62,581 62,581 62,581 202,660 50,199 50,210 153,608 103,266 193,266 103,266 166,086 62,390 62,151 62,151 189,560 125,497 125,497 125,257 119,607
32 Commercial Sq. Ft. Subject to Business License 62,581 125,162 187,743 250,324 452,984 503,183 553,393 707,001 810,267 1,003,533 1,106,799 1,272,885 1,335,275 1,397,426 1,459,577 1,649,137 1,774,634 1,900,131 2,025,388 2,144,995
33 Estimated Business License Fees PSF $0.061 $0.063 $0.064 $0.066 $0.068 $0.069 $0.071 $0.073 $0.075 $0.077 $0.079 $0.081 $0.083 $0.085 $0.088 $0.090 $0.092 $0.095 $0.097 $0.100
34 Projected Business License Fees Paid to City $3,817 $7,834 $12,059 $16,498 $30,636 $34,920 $39,408 $51,663 $60,756 $77,214 $87,385 $103,124 $111,005 $119,208 $127,764 $148,129 $163,568 $179,711 $196,564 $213,612
35 Projected Hotel Taxes (TOT)$0 $0 $0 $0 $383,665 $393,691 $403,979 $414,537 $425,370 $872,972 $895,785 $919,195 $943,216 $967,865 $993,158 $1,019,113 $1,045,745 $1,073,073 $1,101,116 $1,129,892
36 Projected Franchise Fees/Taxes Per Person $49.29 $50.58 $51.90 $53.26 $54.65 $56.08 $57.54 $59.05 $60.59 $62.17 $63.80 $65.46 $67.17 $68.93 $70.73 $72.58 $74.48 $76.42 $78.42 $80.47
37 Projected Franchise Fees/Annual Growth $44,769 $45,939 $47,140 $48,371 $89,572 $40,980 $42,051 $131,916 $91,086 $93,466 $95,909 $158,330 $61,247 $62,847 $64,244 $200,293 $136,068 $139,624 $143,000 $146,737
38 Projected Total Franchise Fees to City of LE $44,769 $91,878 $141,419 $193,486 $288,115 $336,624 $387,473 $529,515 $634,438 $744,484 $859,849 $1,040,649 $1,129,091 $1,221,445 $1,317,609 $1,552,335 $1,728,970 $1,913,777 $2,106,789 $2,308,583
39 Total Estimated Revenue to City of Lake Elsinore $237,037 $486,938 $749,375 $1,062,873 $1,960,294 $2,229,838 $2,545,447 $3,332,367 $3,963,833 $5,054,992 $5,942,311 $6,760,300 $7,277,847 $7,816,849 $8,444,486 $9,693,233 $10,618,716 $11,586,291 $12,592,752 $13,539,330
40 Aggregate Revenue to the City of Lake Elsinore $237,037 $723,975 $1,473,350 $2,536,223 $4,496,517 $6,726,355 $9,271,802 $12,604,169 $16,568,002 $21,622,995 $27,565,306 $34,325,605 $41,603,452 $49,420,301 $57,864,787 $67,558,020 $78,176,736 $89,763,027 $102,355,779 $115,895,109
Notes:
A SFR Based on 2016 New Home Price of $345,000 Adjusted by CPI (2.6133%) Per Year to Start Year 1
B Multi Family Based on 2016 Average Unit Value of $169,825 Adjusted by CPO (2.6133%) Per Year to Start Year 1
C Commercial Construction Based on $191.75 PSF, Adjusted by CPI (2.6133%) Per Year to Start Year
D Aggregate Valuation includes 1.5% Annual Increase (Proposition 13 Maximum is 2%)
E Commercial (Retail Only) Sales Tax Based on 2016 Estimated $200 PSF Taxable Sales, Adjusted by CPI (2.6133%) Per Year to Start Year
F Business License Fees Estimated at 5.5 cents PSF in 2016, Adjusted by CPI (2.6133%) Per Year to Start Year
G Institutional (University), Worship and School Not Calculated in Property Tax or Business License Fees (All Projected to be Exempt)
H Construction Costs Projected to be $120k/Room 2024 & $137k/Room in 2029
I Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT)-Hotel Tax based on 10% TOT Rate 65% Occupancy $90/Night (2016 Base Year) Adjusts by CPI
Exhibit J
City of Lake Elsinore Estimated Tax Revenue from Alberhill Village Development - 20 Year Absorption (DMG, Inc. Phasing)
# Item FY 16/17 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 FY 32/33 FY 33/34 FY 34/35 FY 35/36 FY 36/37 FY 37/38 FY 38/39 FY 39/40
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20
1 Estimated Revenue from Alberhill Villages (Taxes/Fees)0 $237,037 $486,938 $749,375 $1,062,873 $1,960,294 $2,229,838 $2,545,447 $3,332,367 $3,963,833 $5,054,992 $5,942,311 $6,760,300 $7,277,847 $7,816,849 $8,444,486 $9,693,233 $10,618,716 $11,586,291 $12,592,752 $13,539,330
2 Estimated Number of New Residents 0 908 908 908 908 1639 731 731 2234 1503 1503 1503 2419 912 912 908 2760 1827 1827 1824 1824
3 Aggregate Total of New Residents 0 908 1816 2724 3632 5271 6002 6733 8967 10470 11973 13476 15895 16807 17719 18627 21387 23214 25041 26865 28690
4 Cost to Provide Services Per Resident $633.30 $712.45 $737.38 $763.19 $789.90 $817.55 $846.17 $875.78 $906.43 $938.16 $970.99 $1,004.98 $1,040.15 $1,076.56 $1,114.24 $1,153.24 $1,193.60 $1,235.38 $1,278.61 $1,323.37 $1,369.68
5 Total Cost to Provide Municipal Services 0 $646,905 $1,339,082 $2,078,930 $2,868,917 $4,309,306 $5,078,712 $5,896,627 $8,127,958 $9,822,535 $11,625,663 $13,543,110 $16,533,184 $18,093,744 $19,743,219 $21,481,401 $25,527,523 $28,678,111 $32,017,673 $35,552,335 $39,296,119
6 Surplus (Deficit) to the City of Lake Elsinore 0 -$409,868 -$852,144 -$1,329,555 -$1,806,044 -$2,349,012 -$2,848,874 -$3,351,180 -$4,795,591 -$5,858,702 -$6,570,671 -$7,600,799 -$9,772,884 -$10,815,897 -$11,926,370 -$13,036,915 -$15,834,290 -$18,059,395 -$20,431,382 -$22,959,583 -$25,756,789
7 Aggregate Surplus (Deficit) to the City of Lake Elsinore 0 -$409,868 -$1,262,012 -$2,591,566 -$4,397,610 -$6,746,622 -$9,595,496 -$12,946,676 -$17,742,267 -$23,600,969 -$30,171,640 -$37,772,440 -$47,545,324 -$58,361,221 -$70,287,591 -$83,324,506 -$99,158,796 -$117,218,192 -$137,649,574 -$160,609,157 -$186,365,946
# Item FY 16/17 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 FY 32/33 FY 33/34 FY 34/35 FY 35/36 FY 36/37 FY 37/38 FY 38/39 FY 39/40
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20
8 Estimated Revenue from Alberhill Villages (Taxes/Fees)0 $237,037 $486,938 $749,375 $1,062,873 $1,960,294 $2,229,838 $2,545,447 $3,332,367 $3,963,833 $5,054,992 $5,942,311 $6,760,300 $7,277,847 $7,816,849 $8,444,486 $9,693,233 $10,618,716 $11,586,291 $12,592,752 $13,539,330
9 Estimated Number of New Residents 0 908 908 908 908 1639 731 731 2234 1503 1503 1503 2419 912 912 908 2760 1827 1827 1824 1824
10 Aggregate Total of New Residents 0 908 1816 2724 3632 5271 6002 6733 8967 10470 11973 13476 15895 16807 17719 18627 21387 23214 25041 26865 28690
11 Cost to Provide Services Per Resident $633.30 $712.45 $737.38 $763.19 $789.90 $817.55 $846.17 $875.78 $906.43 $938.16 $970.99 $1,004.98 $1,040.15 $1,076.56 $1,114.24 $1,153.24 $1,193.60 $1,235.38 $1,278.61 $1,323.37 $1,369.68
12 Total Cost to Provide Municipal Services 0 $646,905 $1,339,082 $2,078,930 $2,868,917 $4,309,306 $5,078,712 $5,896,627 $8,127,958 $9,822,535 $11,625,663 $13,543,110 $16,533,184 $18,093,744 $19,743,219 $21,481,401 $25,527,523 $28,678,111 $32,017,673 $35,552,335 $39,296,119
13 Finance Expense for Regional Sports Park $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000 $2,770,000
Total Expense to City (Services + Sports Park)$3,416,905 $4,109,082 $4,848,930 $5,638,917 $7,079,306 $7,848,712 $8,666,627 $10,897,958 $12,592,535 $14,395,663 $16,313,110 $19,303,184 $20,863,744 $22,513,219 $24,251,401 $28,297,523 $31,448,111 $34,787,673 $38,322,335 $42,066,119
14 Surplus (Deficit) to the City of Lake Elsinore 0 -$3,179,868 -$3,622,144 -$4,099,555 -$4,576,044 -$5,119,012 -$5,618,874 -$6,121,180 -$7,565,591 -$8,628,702 -$9,340,671 -$10,370,799 -$12,542,884 -$13,585,897 -$14,696,370 -$15,806,915 -$18,604,290 -$20,829,395 -$23,201,382 -$25,729,583 -$28,526,789
15 Aggregate Surplus (Deficit) to the City of Lake Elsinore 0 -$3,179,868 -$6,802,012 -$10,901,566 -$15,477,610 -$20,596,622 -$26,215,496 -$32,336,676 -$39,902,267 -$48,530,969 -$57,871,640 -$68,242,440 -$80,785,324 -$94,371,221 -$109,067,591 -$124,874,506 -$143,478,796 -$164,308,192 -$187,509,574 -$213,239,157 -$241,765,946
# Item FY 16/17 FY 20/21 FY 21/22 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 FY 32/33 FY 33/34 FY 34/35 FY 35/36 FY 36/37 FY 37/38 FY 38/39 FY 39/40
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20
16 Estimated Revenue from Alberhill Villages (Taxes/Fees)0 $237,037 $486,938 $749,375 $1,062,873 $1,960,294 $2,229,838 $2,545,447 $3,332,367 $3,963,833 $5,054,992 $5,942,311 $6,760,300 $7,277,847 $7,816,849 $8,444,486 $9,693,233 $10,618,716 $11,586,291 $12,592,752 $13,539,330
17 Single Family Annually 76 76 76 76 158 82 82 336 254 254 254 447 192 192 191 197 ----
18 Single Family Units Subject to CFD 2015-1 76 152 228 304 462 544 626 962 1,216 1,470 1,724 2,171 2,363 2,555 2,746 2,943 2,943 2,943 2,943 2,943
19 CFD 2015-1 Per SFR (Adjusted by 4% Annually)$833.40 $866.74 $901.41 $937.46 $974.96 $1,013.96 $1,054.52 $1,096.70 $1,140.57 $1,186.19 $1,233.64 $1,282.98 $1,334.30 $1,387.67 $1,443.18 $1,500.91 $1,560.94 $1,623.38 $1,688.32 $1,755.85
20 Total CFD 2015-1 Revenue from SFR $63,338 $131,744 $205,520 $284,988 $450,432 $551,593 $660,128 $1,055,023 $1,386,928 $1,743,696 $2,126,788 $2,785,352 $3,152,951 $3,545,503 $3,962,970 $4,417,167 $4,593,854 $4,777,608 $4,968,712 $5,167,461
21 CFD 2015-2 Per SFR (Adjusted by 4% Annually)$584.93 $608.33 $632.66 $657.97 $684.29 $711.66 $740.12 $769.73 $800.52 $832.54 $865.84 $900.47 $936.49 $973.95 $1,012.91 $1,053.43 $1,095.56 $1,139.39 $1,184.96 $1,232.36
22 Total CFD 2015-2 Revenue Annually $44,455 $92,466 $144,247 $200,022 $316,140 $387,141 $463,317 $740,478 $973,429 $1,223,831 $1,492,707 $1,954,927 $2,212,930 $2,488,446 $2,781,449 $3,100,232 $3,224,242 $3,353,211 $3,487,340 $3,626,833
23 Multi-Family Units Annually 185 185 185 185 313 128 128 306 178 178 178 248 70 70 70 596 525 525 524 524
24 Multi-Family Units (Subject to CFD 2015-1)185 370 555 740 1,053 1,181 1,309 1,615 1,793 1,971 2,149 2,397 2,467 2,537 2,607 3,203 3,728 4,253 4,777 5,301
25 CFD 2015-1 Per Multi-Family (Adjusted by 4% Annually)$561.53 $583.99 $607.35 $631.64 $656.91 $683.19 $710.51 $738.94 $768.49 $799.23 $831.20 $864.45 $899.03 $934.99 $972.39 $1,011.28 $1,051.74 $1,093.80 $1,137.56 $1,183.06
26 Total CFD Revenue from Multi-Family $103,883 $216,077 $337,080 $467,417 $691,727 $806,844 $930,064 $1,193,380 $1,377,907 $1,575,287 $1,786,252 $2,072,086 $2,217,901 $2,372,066 $2,535,016 $3,239,142 $3,920,869 $4,651,951 $5,434,109 $6,271,396
27 CFD 2015-2 Per SFR (Adjusted by 4% Annually)$409.45 $425.83 $442.86 $460.58 $479.00 $498.16 $518.08 $538.81 $560.36 $582.78 $606.09 $630.33 $655.54 $681.76 $709.03 $737.40 $766.89 $797.57 $829.47 $862.65
28 Total CFD 2015-2 Revenue Annually $75,748 $157,556 $245,788 $340,826 $504,386 $588,325 $678,173 $870,175 $1,004,727 $1,148,650 $1,302,479 $1,510,900 $1,617,224 $1,729,636 $1,848,454 $2,361,880 $2,858,974 $3,392,056 $3,962,381 $4,572,904
29 Commercial Square Footage Annually 62,581 62,581 62,581 62,581 202,660 50,199 50,210 153,608 103,266 193,266 103,266 166,086 62,390 62,151 62,151 189,560 125,497 125,497 125,257 119,607
30 Commercial Square Footage Subject to CFD 2015-2)62,581 125,162 187,743 250,324 452,984 503,183 553,393 707,001 810,267 1,003,533 1,106,799 1,272,885 1,335,275 1,397,426 1,459,577 1,649,137 1,774,634 1,900,131 2,025,388 2,144,995
31 CFD 2015-2 Per Square Foot (Adjusted by 4% Annually)$0.035 $0.0364 $0.0379 $0.0394 $0.0409 $0.0426 $0.0443 $0.0461 $0.0479 $0.0498 $0.0518 $0.0539 $0.0560 $0.0583 $0.0606 $0.0630 $0.0656 $0.0682 $0.0709 $0.0737
32 Total CFD 2015-2 Revenue from Commercial $2,190 $4,556 $7,107 $9,855 $18,547 $21,427 $24,508 $32,563 $38,812 $49,992 $57,342 $68,584 $74,824 $81,439 $88,463 $103,950 $116,335 $129,544 $143,607 $158,171
33 Total Revenue from Alberhill Villages (ALL Sources)$526,652 $1,089,337 $1,689,117 $2,365,982 $3,941,525 $4,585,169 $5,301,636 $7,223,987 $8,745,635 $10,796,447 $12,707,878 $15,152,148 $16,553,677 $18,033,939 $19,660,839 $22,915,605 $25,332,989 $27,890,662 $30,588,901 $33,336,096
34 Estimated Number of New Residents 0 908 908 908 908 1639 731 731 2234 1503 1503 1503 2419 912 912 908 2760 1827 1827 1824 1824
35 Aggregate Total of New Residents 0 908 1816 2724 3632 5271 6002 6733 8967 10470 11973 13476 15895 16807 17719 18627 21387 23214 25041 26865 28690
37 Cost to Provide Services Per Resident $633.30 $712.45 $737.38 $763.19 $789.90 $817.55 $846.17 $875.78 $906.43 $938.16 $970.99 $1,004.98 $1,040.15 $1,076.56 $1,114.24 $1,153.24 $1,193.60 $1,235.38 $1,278.61 $1,323.37 $1,369.68
38 Total Cost to Provide Municipal Services 0 $646,905 $1,339,082 $2,078,930 $2,868,917 $4,309,306 $5,078,712 $5,896,627 $8,127,958 $9,822,535 $11,625,663 $13,543,110 $16,533,184 $18,093,744 $19,743,219 $21,481,401 $25,527,523 $28,678,111 $32,017,673 $35,552,335 $39,296,119
39 Surplus (Deficit) to the City of Lake Elsinore 0 -$120,253 -$249,745 -$389,813 -$502,935 -$367,781 -$493,543 -$594,991 -$903,971 -$1,076,900 -$829,216 -$835,232 -$1,381,036 -$1,540,067 -$1,709,280 -$1,820,563 -$2,611,918 -$3,345,122 -$4,127,011 -$4,963,434 -$5,960,023
40 Aggregate Surplus (Deficit) to the City of Lake Elsinore 0 -$120,253 -$369,998 -$759,811 -$1,262,746 -$1,630,527 -$2,124,070 -$2,719,061 -$3,623,032 -$4,699,933 -$5,529,149 -$6,364,381 -$7,745,417 -$9,285,484 -$10,994,764 -$12,815,326 -$15,427,244 -$18,772,366 -$22,899,378 -$27,862,812 -$33,822,835
Notes:
A Financing Expense for Regional Sports Park Based on $42.35 million capital cost plus 1.5% (Cost of Issuance) Total $43.00 30-Years, 5%: $2,770,000 annually (shown for First 20 Years, Bond Extends additional 10 years)
B Commercial Square Footage for Institutional (University), Worship and School Not included for CFD 2015-2 Calculations
C CFD 2015-1 Based on 2016 Amounts of $712.40/Unit SFR, $499.20/Unit Multi-Family, Adjusted by 4% Annually to Reach First Year (FY 20/21)
D CFD 2015-2 Based on 2016 Amounts of $500/Unit SFR, $350/Unit Multi-Family and $.03 PSF for Commercial, Adjusted by 4% Annually to Reach First Year (FY 20/21)
Model 5: Revenue vs. Expense (No CFD 2015-1, No CFD 2015-2 Revenue, No City Paid/Financed Sports Park)
Model 6: Revenue vs. Expense (No CFD 2015-1, No CFD 2015-2 Revenue, City Financially Responsible for Paying/Financing Sports Park)
Model 7: Revenue vs. Expense (With Revenue from CFD 2015-1, CFD 2015-2, No City Paid/Financed Sports Park)
Exhibit K
Reconciliation of Revenue vs. Expenses Alberhill Villages - 20 Year Absorption (DMG, Inc Projected Phasing)