HomeMy WebLinkAboutItem No. 18 Adopt Economic Develop Strategic PlanText File
City of Lake Elsinore 130 South Main Street
Lake Elsinore, CA 92530
www.lake-elsinore.org
File Number: ID# 16-384
Agenda Date: 9/13/2016 Status: BusinessVersion: 1
File Type: ReportIn Control: City Council
Agenda Number: 18)
Page 1 City of Lake Elsinore Printed on 9/8/2016
Page 1 of 1
REPORT TO CITY COUNCIL
To:Honorable Mayor and Members of the City Council
From:Grant Yates, City Manager
Prepared by: Michael Bracken, Economic Development Consultant (DMG Economics)
Date:September 13, 2016
Subject:Adoption of City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan
Recommendation
Adopt the attached City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan.
Background
The City of Lake Elsinore, through its economic development consultant, has been working to
construct an Economic Development Strategic Plan that will guide our community efforts for the
next five to ten years. The plan provides a statistical analysis of where our community is in a
number of key econometric categories and provides a comparison to surrounding communities
as well as Riverside County, the State of California and the United States (as a whole). DMG
Economics (Development Management Group, Inc.) consulted with over 100 members of our
community (residents, business leaders, economic investors, elected/appointed officials and
staff members). The plan also provides a number of economic initiatives and opportunities as
well as an implementation plan that will guide our specific efforts over the next two to three
years. The plan also describes how to quantitatively analyze the success of our efforts.
Discussion
An Economic Development Strategic Plan is best utilized as a living document whereby every
two years, it is revisited to determine if certain previously identified initiatives are still relevant
and to add new opportunities that are worthy of pursuit.
Fiscal Impact
The adoption of the Economic Development Strategic Plan does not have a direct impact on the
City budget. There are various activities within the Plan that are subject to budget review and
allocation.
Exhibits
A – Economic Development Strategic Plan
Development Management Group, Inc.
economic development fiscal & economic analysis development management
41-625 Eclectic Street, Suite D-2 Palm Desert, CA 92260
Office: (760) 346-8820 Mobile: (760) 272-9136 Fax:(760) 346-8887
michael@dmgeconomics.com www.dmgeconomics.com
Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021
Completed for:
Final Report
September 13, 2016
Executive Summary
In July, 2015 the City of Lake Elsinore City Council contracted with Development Management
Group, Inc. to serve as an economic development consultant to the City. Among our initial tasks
was to work with community leaders to generate this City of Lake Elsinore Economic
Development Strategic Plan.
The City of Lake Elsinore continues to be one of the fastest growing communities in California.
On average six-hundred (600) new homes have been built each of the last four (4) years. This
equates to over 2,000 new residents each year. With new residents come expanded opportunities
for quality of life (retail, restaurants, entertainment) job producing (office, healthcare, flex,
industrial) elements.
The purpose of the City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan is to provide a
roadmap for which the community leaders can prioritize and pursue those opportunities that
fulfill the community mission:
“The City of Lake Elsinore will be the ultimate lake destination where all can live, work and
play, building futures and fulfill dreams”
Lake Elsinore is in the midst of an economic renaissance. Between the noted housing growth
and increase in economic activity surrounding retail and industrial/flex space, the community is
beginning to realize its full economic potential.
The greatest opportunities surround the following:
1.Increased Usage of “The Lake” (Lake Elsinore)
2.Development of Retail Establishments and Restaurants that Serve both the Local
Community and the Region
3.Development of Recreation Facilities (Youth and Adult Sports) that Serve Local,
Regional, Super-Regional, National and International Needs (Along with
Hotels/Restaurants/Retailers to Support these Facilities)
4.Generation of Additional Office, Healthcare, Flex and Industrial Space to Provide to
Generate Employment Opportunities for Residents (Local and Regional)
5.Construct the Infrastructure that Accommodates Increases in Residents and Visitors to
the Community while Opening New Developable Parcels (Especially Along Interstate-
15).
Economic Development today is accomplished differently than it was ten and twenty years ago.
In the past, communities would utilize Redevelopment and Tax Increment Financing for which
to bring forward new investment. Today, private sector investment is the only viable tool for
which to generate new investment. The benefit of the current environment is that projects are
more likely to be self-sustaining without government assistance as the economic investment
decision is based on market factors and not subsidies.
Communities that receive the greatest economic investment will be those that a) have the greatest
market opportunity b) have developed and maintained genuine relationships with those seeking
to make investments and c) have professional staff, commissions and councils that are able to
efficiently process development projects through the entitlement/permit process.
At the conclusion of the City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan is a draft
implementation plan. The implementation plan is a schedule going forward approximately
eighteen months with specific recommendations. The recommendations are based on the
relationship development approach to economic investment.
As the City Council adopts this Plan, DMG, Inc. will provide a set of goals for which to evaluate
the success of implementation. The goals will be qualified as it relates to statistical items
(demographics) impacting market opportunity, number of relationships and sales introductions
made and economic investment received by the community (both in terms of dollars and job
creation).
Consultant Note About Economic Development Strategic Plans
An Economic Development Strategic Plan is best utilized as a “living document”. While it
provides a moment in time (snapshot) of where the community is economically and how it
relates to competitors, it also serves as a means to compare progress.
Our recommendation is to review the attached plan, provide input for adjustments (and or
adoption) and use it as your roadmap. From there, make appropriate amendments to it as the
economy evolves or opportunities arise. Comparatives (demographic statistics) are best looked
at every 2-3 years as there is often what is known as “data lag”. In the meantime, direct
economic investment (building permits, tax revenue receipts and job creation) can be used to
determine overall effectiveness.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 1
1.Introduction
Development Management Group, Inc. (DMG) has been retained by The City of Lake Elsinore, California to
produce an Economic Development Strategic Plan that will guide the City and the Community in their
economic development efforts for the next five (5) to ten (10) years.
The City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan provides a foundational understanding of the
local and regional economy and basis for which a community proceeds to create/generate economic investment.
This plan also provides recommendations regarding specific projects and economic development initiatives that
are both tangible and quantifiable as part of the implementation phase. The City of Lake Elsinore Economic
Development Strategic Plan is organized to provide demographic/statistical information and specific
initiative/project recommendations.
This Economic Development Strategic Plan is a product of the community, its leaders (both civic and business)
and independent resources and research. It is based on the premise that the community desires an economically
vibrant future in which there are multiple career, business, educational, housing and recreation/cultural
opportunities for residents and visitors alike.
Lake Elsinore is located in Southwest Riverside County and has a current (and growing population) of about
61,000 people (January 1, 2016). The City was incorporated in 1888. The City’s rich history is centered around
the “Lake” itself. Due to its age, there is no one common architectural theme to the City, but rather a mix
depending on the neighborhood and age of specific areas in the community. The community is located in the
Southwestern portion of Riverside County and is surrounded by the communities of Temecula, Murrieta, Perris,
Wildomar, Menifee and Corona.
2.Statement of Independence
The City of Lake Elsinore, California has provided a joint contractual obligation with Development
Management Group, Inc. regarding independence of research, analysis, recommendations and conclusions.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 2
3.Contact Information for the City of Lake Elsinore, California
Mr. Grant Yates, City Manager Mr. Jason Simpson, Assistant City Manager
City of Lake Elsinore City of Lake Elsinore
130 South Main Street 130 South Main Street
Lake Elsinore, CA 92530 Lake Elsinore, CA 92530
(951) 674-3124 (951) 674-3124
gyates@lake-elsinore.org jsimpson@lake-elsinore.org
www.lake-elsinore.org www.lake-elsinore.org
4.Contact Information for Development Management Group, Inc.
Mr. Michael Bracken, Managing Partner
Development Management Group, Inc.
41-625 Eclectic Street, Suite D-2
Palm Desert, CA 92260
(760) 272-9136 (phone) * (760) 346-8887 (fax)
Michael@dmgeconomics.com
www.dmgeconomics.com
5.Table of Contents of Economic Development Strategic Plan:
Item/Section Page #
* Executive Summary N/A
1.Introduction 1
2.Statement of Independence 1
3.Contact Information for City of Lake Elsinore 2
4.Contact Information for Development Management Group, Inc.2
5.Table of Contents of Community and Economic Impact Analysis 2-4
6.References Utilized in Analysis 5
7.Economic Development Defined 6-7
8.City/Community as an Economic Investment Product 7
9.Demographic/Statistical Analysis 7-29
A.2016 Population
B.Population Growth Projections 2016-2021
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 3
C.Percentage of Residents Hispanic/Latino
D.Percentage of Residents White
E.Percentage of Residents Asian
F.Percentage of Residents African American
G.Percentage of Residents Native American / Alaskan
H.Percentage of Residents Foreign Born
I.Median Age
J.Percentage of Residents 0-17
K.Percentage of Residents 18-24
L.Percentage of Residents 25-44
M. Percentage of Residents 45-54
N.Percentage of Residents 55+
O.Percentage of Residents Veterans (Military Service)
P.Educational Attainment Adults 25+ High School or Better
Q.Educational Attainment Adults 25+ Bachelor’s Degree or Better
R.Lake Elsinore Residents 25+ Educational Attainment
S. Median Household Income
T.Lake Elsinore Household Income Distribution
U.Percentage of Residents Without Health Insurance
V.Percentage of Residents Living in Poverty
W. Percentage of Residents Under 65 Disabled
X.Percentage of Residents 16+ Active in Labor Force
Y.Percentage of Residents Not in Labor Force
Z.Unemployment Rate
AA. Historic Lake Elsinore Unemployment Rate
AB. Historic Lake Elsinore Labor Force
AC. Historic Lake Elsinore Total Persons Employed
AD. Lake Elsinore Residents Distribution of Jobs by Category
AE. Mean Travel Time To/From Work
AF. Lake Elsinore Residents Distribution of Travel Time To/From Work
AG. Number of Firms (Employers) Located in Lake Elsinore by NAICS Code
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 4
AH. Employment in Lake Elsinore by NAICS Code
AI. Median Home Value
AJ. Percentage of Housing Owner Occupied
AK. Persons Per Unit of Housing
10.Introduction to Economic Development Recommendations 29
11.Retail Opportunities 29-45
AL. Traffic Counts on Interstate 15 at Lake Elsinore Intersections/Off-Ramps
AM. Retail Opportunity (Total)
AN. Retail Opportunity (Immediate Gap) by Category/Type
12.Economic Development Partnerships 46-48
13.The “Lake” of Lake Elsinore 49
14.Downtown 50-51
15.Destination Lake Elsinore (Tourism/Hospitality)51-53
16.Community Economic Basics 53-55
17.Jobs, Jobs, Jobs 55-57
AO. Commercial Space Deficit (Need) Calculations in Lake Elsinore
18.Infrastructure 57
19.Housing as an Economic Development Strategic 57-58
20.Advantage Lake Elsinore (Entitlement/Permitting Process)59-60
21.Legislative Changes to Advance Economic Development 61
22.Communications Plan 61-63
23.Financing Economic Development 63-64
24.Factors in Economic Development Success 64
25.Measuring Economic Development Success 65-66
26.Implementation 66
27.Certification by Development Management Group, Inc.66
28.Appendices Attached
Appendix A: List of Participants in Creation of Economic Development Strategic Plan
Appendix B: Implementation Schedule
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 5
6.References Utilized to Create Economic Development Strategic Plan:
Development Management Group, Inc. has utilized information from the following sources in completing this
analysis:
1.American Community Survey
2.Center for Economic Policy and Research
3.City of Lake Elsinore, California
4.Confidential Interviews
5.County of Riverside, California
6.DataQuick
7.Development Management Group, Inc. (internal/proprietary information/calculations)
8.Federal Register
9.Inland Empire Film Commission
10.International Council of Shopping Centers
11.Interviews and Focus Group Participants (Appendix A)
12.Lake Elsinore Historical Society
13.Lake Elsinore Valley Chamber of Commerce
14.Natelson Group
15.Nielsen/Claritas, Inc.
16.State of California Board of Equalization
17.State of California Department of Finance
18.State of California Employment Development Department
19.State of California Department of Housing and Urban Development
20.Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG)
21.The HdL Companies
22.United States Census Bureau
23.United States Department of Commerce (Economic Development Administration)
24.Western Riverside Council of Governments
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 6
7.Economic Development Defined
Economic Development is defined as “any activity that raises the overall wealth of a community”. The term
“wealth” has multiple definitions and meanings. Economic “wealth” includes monetary wealth, housing,
education, jobs, shopping, dining, recreation and quality of life among others. Economic Development is vital
to a community so that there is a balanced and consorted effort to generate resources for residents, property
owners, businesses, visitors and government.
From a resident perspective, economic development means housing options for all income levels, quality
schools, quality of life elements (community events, festivals, parks, recreation), public safety, infrastructure
and economic opportunity in the form of jobs and/or entrepreneurial activities.
From a municipal perspective, think of the governmental entity known as the City of Lake Elsinore as a
municipal corporation (which is what it technically is). The City has shareholders (residents/voters), a Board of
Directors (the City Council), advisory boards (Planning Commission, Public Safety Advisory Commission, Arts
Commission, Historical Society and others), a Chief Executive Officer (the City Manager), staff and a host of
products and services it is expected to produce and/or deliver to its shareholders (residents). As with any
corporation, there are revenues (taxes and fees) and expenses (police, fire, public works, parks & recreation,
engineering (roads and streets). As a “public” corporation, both figuratively and literally, there is also a budget
that is available to the shareholders (and anyone else for that matter). As the shareholders (residents)
desire/expect a level of goods and services for their money (again taxes and fees), the corporation (the City) is
responsible to be responsive to the desires and expectations of their shareholders.
Economic Development then becomes the vehicle for which the municipal corporation helps offer additional
“wealth” opportunities while increasing the overall resources for which the corporation (city) can then deliver
basic services to its shareholders(residents).
Cities then desire economic investment by the private sector (or in some cases other government agencies) that
result in job creation, infrastructure development, shopping opportunities, increased business
ownership/entrepreneurship opportunities, health/medical services, professional services (both to residents and
business to business), recreational opportunities (both to residents and visitors) and space (building
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 7
development). Many cities, including the City of Lake Elsinore, promote the community for new residents as a
way of increasing the population to attract a wider audience of economic investors. In simple terms (and really
for the balance of this strategic plan), Economic Development will be the act of bringing new economic
investment to the community that then creates the aforementioned opportunities and revenues for the benefit of
the residents (both current and new).
8. The City/Community as an Economic Investment Product
Economic Investment is made in places whereby those making the investment will receive the greatest (or
reasonable) returns. It is capitalism in its purest form. A retailer opens a new store where they believe they will
be profitable. A developer will buy land, entitle and construct buildings where they believe people/companies
will lease the property for him/her to make a fair profit. This goes for retail, office and industrial/flex space
development. Home builders develop where there is demand and where a profit can be made.
Economic Investors are then making an investment in a city/community to take advantage of the marketplace or
market opportunity, therefore the city, community or market/trade-area becomes the product. When
communities seek economic investment (economic development) they are essentially marketing or recruiting
utilizing their community (or product) as the enticement or carrot.
9.Demographic Analysis for the City of Lake Elsinore
For a community like Lake Elsinore to attract new economic investment, they must first understand their
product (community) and how it compares to surrounding communities (competing for the same investment) as
well as the region (Riverside County), State (California) and Nation (United States). For purposes of providing
comparatives, DMG, Inc. is providing demographic information from the following communities:
1.City of Corona
2.City of Lake Elsinore
3.City of Menifee
4.City of Murrieta
5.City of Temecula
6.City of Wildomar
7.County of Riverside
8.State of California
9.United States
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 8
A. Population
The City of Lake Elsinore has a current population estimated at 61,006. Of the comparative communities, Lake
Elsinore is among the smallest. Note that in Exhibit A, the population of Riverside County (2.36 million),
California (39.14 million) and the United States (321.42 million) are not presented. This was to highlight the
size of the local/comparative communities in a more readable format. Lake Elsinore, while part of Riverside
County, is often referred to sub regionally as a portion of Southwest Riverside County (encompassing the
communities of Lake Elsinore, Temecula, Murrieta, Wildomar, Perris and Menifee). Together, the Southwest
Riverside County sub region has a population of about 410,000.
Exhibit A
Exhibit B presents the growth projections by respected demographers (namely Nielsen). The takeaway from
this is not whether or not Lake Elsinore as a community will be the fastest growing community or not, but
rather that Lake Elsinore along with the balance of the Southwestern Riverside County cities are expected to
grow at a rate 2 to 3 times that of both California and the United States as a whole. This growth curve is based
on available land, desirable weather conditions and access to job markets in San Diego, Orange County, Los
Angeles County and Ontario/Riverside (with some being in the more localized communities). The level of
growth anticipated for Southwest Riverside County has the potential to fuel economic expansion in a multitude
of categories for the foreseeable future (retail, restaurant, services, medical, industrial-flex and office).
35,632
61,006
87,174
109,830 112,011
164,226
Wildomar Lake Elsinore Menifee Murrieta Temecula Corona
Population
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 9
Exhibit B
B. Ethnicity
The City of Lake Elsinore has a very diverse population that in many ways mirrors the overall population of
Riverside County. Almost half (48.4%) of Lake Elsinore residents are Hispanic/Latino while about 3 of 8
(37.8%) are White. Asians make up 5.6% of Lake Elsinore residents while African Americans represent 5.3%.
Just under 1% of the community is Native American (.9%). As a community that mirrors the County as a
whole, it provides an easy comparative benchmark for economic opportunity for those seeking investment
opportunities. This is an area that will be more fully discussed in the implementation section of this Economic
Development Strategic Plan. Exhibits C-G provide graphical representation.
Exhibit C
3.69%3.76%
4.81%
6.11%
7.05%7.09%
8.42%8.65%
9.33%
United
States
Corona California Riverside
County
Lake
Elsinore
WildomarTemecula Murrieta Menifee
Growth Projection 2016-2021
17.4%
24.7%25.9%
33.0%35.3%38.6%
43.6%
47.4%48.4%
United
States
Temecula Murrieta Menifee WildomarCalifornia Corona Riverside
County
Lake
Elsinore
PercentageofResidentsHispanic/Latino
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 10
Exhibit D
Exhibit F
Exhibit E
Exhibit F
37.4%37.8%38.1%40.1%
53.6%54.2%55.7%57.2%
63.7%
Riverside
County
Lake
Elsinore
Corona CaliforniaWildomar Menifee Murrieta Temecula United
States
PercentageofResidentsWhite
4.5%4.9%5.4%5.8%
6.8%
9.2%9.8%9.9%
14.4%
Wildomar Menifee United
States
Lake
Elsinore
Riverside
County
Murrieta Temecula Corona California
PercentageofResidentsAsian
3.3%4.1%5.0%5.3%5.4%5.9%6.5%7.0%
13.2%
WildomarTemecula Menifee Lake
Elsinore
Murrieta Corona California Riverside
County
United
States
PercentageofResidents
African American
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 11
Exhibit G
California has a long history of welcoming immigrants from a variety of nations. In California as a whole, 27%
of residents were born outside the nation. This is more than twice the national average of 13.1%. While
Riverside County as a whole is under the State average, there are a significant amount of foreign born residents
throughout the comparative communities. Specific to the City of Lake Elsinore more than 1 in 5 residents was
born outside of the United States. Exhibit H provides a comparative figure.
Exhibit H
0.7%0.8%0.8%0.9%1.0%1.1%1.2%1.2%
1.9%
Murrieta Menifee Corona Lake
Elsinore
CaliforniaTemeculaWildomar United
States
Riverside
County
PercentageofResidents
NativeAmerican/Alaskian
13.1% 13.1%13.4%
15.3%
19.0%
21.9%22.0%
25.8%27.0%
Menifee United
States
Murrieta TemeculaWildomar Lake
Elsinore
Riverside
County
Corona California
PercentageofResidentsForeign Born
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 12
C. Median Age and Age Distribution
The median age of a community (and surrounding region) helps dictate the types of economic investment that is
most attracted both now and into the future. Demographers use age distribution charts as a way of predicting
economic sector growth. The City of Lake Elsinore is uniquely positioned as the single most advantageous
community from an age standpoint. Median age in Lake Elsinore is 31.7 over 6 years younger than the United
States average and almost 5 years younger than the State of California median age. Exhibit I provides a graphic
of the how median age in the City of Lake Elsinore compares with neighboring communities.
Exhibit I
31.7 33.2 33.9 34.6 34.8 35.1 36.4 38 38.7
Lake
Elsinore
Temecula Corona Murrieta Riverside
County
WildomarCalifornia United
States
Menifee
Median Age
Exhibit J confirms an economic advantage to the City of Lake Elsinore. Three in ten (29.72%) residents are
under the age of 18. Certainly this level of youth means that there is significant activity in the school system
but also provides the nucleus for investment that serves youth. Examples include sports, arts and entertainment
and shopping opportunities. This also means there are a larger number of families (comparatively) than in other
areas.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 13
Exhibit J
Exhibit K provides the percentage of population within various communities for those ages 18-24, or young adults.
About 10% of the community’s population is in this category. These are persons that are generally still in school
(college, technology or trade school) or have just entered the workforce and are still gathering skills and experience to
advance. Most of the communities in Southwest Riverside County boasts populations in this age category of 10-11%.
Exhibit K
Economic investors, especially those seeking a workforce often look at the key age demographic of 25-44 as those are
core career/earning years for most in a community. Lake Elsinore boasts the highest percentage of population in this
category. To an employer, this means that Lake Elsinore has a large pool of potential labor to draw from. Couple this
with a competitive number of young adults and a very large youth population and there is a solid pipeline of labor to
support business growth for generations. Exhibit L displays the comparative model.
22.97%23.63%24.44%25.90%26.24%26.80%26.86%27.25%
29.72%
United
States
California Menifee Wildomar Riverside
County
Murrieta Corona Temecula Lake
Elsinore
Percent ofPopulation Ages0-17
9.13%9.84%10.02%10.56%10.60%10.66%10.80%11.08%11.16%
Menifee United
States
California Riverside
County
Lake
Elsinore
Wildomar Corona Temecula Murrieta
Percent ofPopulation Ages18-24
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 14
Exhibit L
Exhibit M provides the percentage of those ages 45-54. Demographers often refer to this group as the highly
experienced workforce as many in this age bracket are at the pinnacle (peak) of their working/earning years.
While Lake Elsinore has a smaller percentage than most, the numbers between all comparative communities are
similar.
Exhibit M
Finally, Exhibit N provides the percentage of those that are ages 55+ in each of the comparative communities.
Each age group provides its own unique economic opportunities. Communities (like Lake Elsinore) with a
younger population have a need for schools and educational facilities, while communities with an older
population often attract retirement facilities and additional medical services. Exhibit N provides a solid
graphical understanding of how “young” the community is.
24.06%
25.33%25.60%25.80%25.98%26.13%
27.66%27.79%
28.71%
Menifee Murrieta TemeculaWildomar United
States
Riverside
County
Corona California Lake
Elsinore
Percent ofPopulation Ages25-44
11.71%12.79%13.10%13.31%13.33%14.02%14.78% 14.79%15.41%
Menifee Riverside
County
Lake
Elsinore
California United
States
Wildomar Murrieta Corona Temecula
PercentageofPopulation Age45-54
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 15
Exhibit N
While the number of military installation facilities in Riverside County is limited (mostly March Air Force
Base), the proximity to San Diego (Camp Pendleton among others) means that there are a number of both active
duty and military veterans in the community and region. The City of Lake Elsinore boasts about 4.5% of
residents as military veterans. Considering 30% of Lake Elsinore residents are ages 0-17, some 6.4% of all
adults (18+) are military veterans (or about 2,800 persons).
Exhibit O
17.85%19.89%20.65%21.93%23.58%24.29%25.25%
27.87%
30.13%
Lake
Elsinore
Corona Temecula Murrieta Wildomar Riverside
County
California United
States
Menifee
PercentageofPopulation Ages55+
3.99%4.48%4.70%
5.60%
6.33%6.44%6.65%6.82%
8.63%
Corona Lake
Elsinore
California Riverside
County
Wildomar United
States
Temecula Murrieta Menifee
PercentageofResidentsVeterans
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 16
D. Educational Attainment
Note: Educational attainment is measured by the highest level completed by adults 25+. This is because most
persons have completed the highest level of education they will obtain by the age of 25.
A key factor in determining both the future economic success of a community and what economic engines will
thrive in a community is educational attainment. Simply stated, the higher the educational achievement within
the community, the higher the earning potential of the residents. In an increasingly competitive and global
economy, it is essential that adults complete high school. It is preferable that they have completed at least an
Associates or Bachelor’s Degree. The basic business and craft skills that come with completion of a college
education open many career opportunities. Lake Elsinore has a comparatively low percentage of adults 25+ that
have completed high school (or passed an equivalency exam) at 77.7% versus the comparative markets. As a
whole, Lake Elsinore is close to the overall County average of 79.8% but lags behind market leaders (Temecula
and Murrieta at 92.0% and 92.1% respectively).
Exhibit P
Exhibit Q provides statistics on the percentage of adults (again 25+) that have completed a bachelor’s degree or
greater (including masters, professional (such as a law degree), or formal doctorate). Educational achievement
statistics generally mirror similar rankings as high school completion with Murrieta and Temecula leading the
region at 28.8% and 30.9% respectively. Lake Elsinore has similar achievement statistics to Menifee and
Wildomar. The quantity of youth in Lake Elsinore moving through the school system will likely change this
statistic for the better in the coming decade.
77.7%
79.8%
81.5%
83.6%84.6%85.5%86.3%
92.0%92.1%
Lake
Elsinore
Riverside
County
California Wildomar Corona Menifee United
States
Temecula Murrieta
EducationalAchievement (Age25+)
Percentagew/HighSchoolor Better
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 17
Exhibit Q
Exhibit R below provides an understanding of educational achievement specific to Lake Elsinore adults 25+.
The takeaway from this is that much work remains to provide an educated workforce to fuel the economic
future of the community.
Exhibit R
E. Median Household Income
Retailers often use the bellwether of median household income to determine a potential fit between market
demand and products offered. Some retailers like Nordstrom’s or Apple seek higher income communities as
their products are either prestige priced or are more discretionary spends in nature. Other retailers are more
budget oriented. Exhibit S shows a comparison of Median Household Income in the region. Lake Elsinore is
11.38%12.16%
27.61%27.67%
6.56%
10.45%
3.05% 0.67% 0.44%
LakeElsinoreResidents(25+)EducationalAttainment
15.6%16.1%17.3%
20.8%
26.7%28.8%29.3%30.9%31.0%
Wildomar Lake
Elsinore
Menifee Riverside
County
Corona Murrieta United
States
TemeculaCalifornia
PercentageofResidentswith BachelorsDegree
or Better (Age25+)
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 18
sitting well above the United States and Riverside County figures and is also above all but three comparative
communities in the region.
Exhibit S
$53,482
$56,592 $56,671
$60,816
Median Household Income
(Annually in $)
F.Income Distribution: City of Lake Elsinore
A further look at income distribution within the City of Lake Elsinore shows that about 45% of households have
an income of between $50,000 and $100,000 (generally defined as middle class by Inland Southern California
standards). About 1 in 4 families (24%) have a household income exceeding $100,000 annually with more than
half of those families exceeding $150,000 per annum. Lake Elsinore, in regards to income distribution,
represents a middle-class community.
Exhibit T
9.03%8.91%9.99%
13.97%
19.63%
14.63%
9.70%
6.14%5.76%1.45% 0.68% 0.12%
LakeElsinoreAnnualHouseholdIncomeDistribution
(in Dollars)
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 19
G. Elements of Poverty
A growing concern in communities post the “Great Recession” is the increase in poverty, growing income
disparity and lack of health insurance among residents. Economists use a couple of benchmarks for
determining the depth of potential economic issues in a community. Exhibit U provides one of those
benchmarks, the percentage of residents without health insurance. Interestingly enough, even in an era whereby
the United States has enacted the Affordable Care Act, which requires all persons to have health insurance,
almost 1 in 5 persons in Riverside County are without health care. In Lake Elsinore, the figure is 18.5%, which
is higher than the U.S. average and the California average.
Exhibit U
Exhibit O
Exhibit V below provides an understanding of the percentage of persons living in poverty in the comparative
communities. The definition of poverty (statistically) will differ depending on the size of the family/household.
For a family of four (4), those that are considered impoverished have a family/household income of under
$24,300. In Lake Elsinore, 14.5% percent of families live at or below the poverty line. What this does not take
into account are those families that, for example make $26,000 a year and are not considered impoverished by
federal standards but certainly do not have sufficient means to support themselves. Lake Elsinore does have the
highest level of poverty within the region of Southwest Riverside County. That said, it is below the figures for
Riverside County as a whole as well as both California and the United States.
12.0%12.6%13.1%14.0%
16.3%16.9%18.5%19.2%20.8%
United
States
Murrieta TemeculaCalifornia Corona Menifee Lake
Elsinore
Riverside
County
Wildomar
PercentageResidentsWithout
Health Insurance
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 20
Exhibit V
Finally, with respect to factors that can impact those in poverty, Exhibit W shows the percentage of persons
within the comparative communities that are disabled. Unfortunately, there is a direct connection between
those that are disabled and poverty. The Center for Economic Policy and Research states that over 40% of
families in poverty also have at least one family member that is disabled. The percentage of those disabled in
Lake Elsinore is lower than both the California and Riverside County averages.
Exhibit W
7.9%8.2%
11.3%11.3%
13.7%14.5%14.8%
16.4%16.9%
Murrieta Temecula Menifee Corona Wildomar Lake
Elsinore
United
States
California Riverside
County
Percent ofResidentsLiving in Poverty
4.8%4.9%
5.9%
6.7%6.7%7.2%
7.8%8.1%8.5%
Corona Murrieta Temecula Lake
Elsinore
California Riverside
County
Menifee Wildomar United
States
PercentageofResidentsDisabled (Under Age65)
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 21
G. Workforce and Employment
To understand labor force characteristics in Lake Elsinore, we start by understanding the percentage of persons
16+ that are engaged/involved in the labor force. This includes persons that are employed or seeking
employment. Lake Elsinore residents are more actively engaged in the labor force than all but one of the
comparative communities with 2/3 of residents 16+ part of the labor force.
Exhibit X
In continuing the topic of labor force participation, Exhibit Y below provides a comparison of those not active
in the labor force within the comparative communities. Keep in mind that Lake Elsinore has the highest
percentage of population that is school age, and therefore not eligible to be in the labor force. On the other side
of the ledger, the percentage of those persons 55+ in the community is extremely low, meaning they are
generally still engaged in the workforce.
Exhibit Y
57.1%
60.6%
63.4%63.5%
64.8% 64.8%65.2%
66.8%67.1%
Menifee Riverside
County
California United
States
Murrieta TemeculaWildomar Lake
Elsinore
Corona
PercentageofResidents16+Involved in Labor Force
33.24%33.78%34.47%34.77%35.02%36.30%36.38%
39.44%
41.15%
Corona Murrieta Wildomar Lake
Elsinore
Temecula United
States
California Riverside
County
Menifee
Percent ofPopulation Notin Workforce
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 22
In terms of overall unemployment rates, Lake Elsinore is at the higher end of comparative communities with
June, 2016 unemployment at about 7.1%. Recent economic growth (in terms of population growth-new home
construction) and additional job creation means that the unemployment rate is expected to decline to below 6%
by the end of 2016. Overall unemployment in Lake Elsinore is similar to the County of Riverside as a whole.
Exhibit Z
Lake Elsinore has seen a steady decrease in unemployment since 2011, when it topped out above 13%. Today,
the unemployment rate is just over 7% but is expected to dip below 6% by the end of 2016. Most economists
consider a number of about 5% to be full employment (meaning just about everyone in a community seeking a
job has one). When a community (or region) reaches full employment, wage pressures can begin to take hold
which means that employers often need to increase the pay and/or benefits to attract and retain labor to fuel
business. (* in Exhibits AA-AC denote end of year projections)
Exhibit AA
Exhibit Q
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
11.00%
12.00%
13.00%
14.00%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
City ofLakeElsinore
Unemployment Rate
4.8%5.2%5.2%5.3%5.7%
6.7%6.7%7.1%7.8%
Temecula United
States
Corona Murrieta California Riverside
County
Wildomar Lake
Elsinore
Menifee
Percent ofPopulation Unemployed
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 23
As the City of Lake Elsinore continues to grow in population, so does the total labor force. Exhibit AB shows
the substantial growth in the overall labor force from about 18,000 to 27,000 in just the last 3 years.
Exhibit AB
It follows that as the labor force has increased, so has the number of people employed. The reality is that
people moving to Lake Elsinore typically are already employed and they are moving to take advantage of newer
or new housing opportunities at more affordable prices that surrounding areas versus moving into the area
hoping to find employment. In the last three years, the number of residents that are employed has increased
from about 16,000 to 25,000. This figure also proves that there is a stable and growing local labor force.
Exhibit AC
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
City ofLakeElsinoreTotalLabor Force
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
City ofLakeElsinoreTotalPersonsEmployed
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 24
Lake Elsinore residents are employed in a large variety of professions. In fact, no profession includes more
than about 15% of the labor force. Exhibit AD provides an understanding of job distribution by business type
(in some cases skill-set type). What we learn from this is that there is a significant number of residents
employed in sales related industries (which include retail). In terms of skill-set identification, demographers see
that the community has many skilled persons in office/administrative positions, management, production,
transportation and construction. In fact, about 35% of those employed are within those four categories. It
follows that companies in the business of construction, logistics and production would have an available built-in
labor pool to fuel their companies. Administrative positions typically transcend all industry groups and
supports anything from back-office construction to health care, logistics and insurance.
Exhibit AD
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
City ofLakeElsinore
Distribution ofJobsby Category
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 25
Exhibits AE and AF reflect the current tale of the residents of Lake Elsinore. The residents are employable, and
employed in solid jobs in a variety of industries but those jobs are NOT near Lake Elsinore. Of the comparative
communities, Lake Elsinore residents have the longest commutes, averaging 42 minutes one-way. To put this
into perspective the average Lake Elsinore resident spends 29.4 minutes longer each day on the road than the
average California resident. Based on a 48-week employment year (allowing for vacation, holidays, sick and
family leave), a Lake Elsinore resident spends 117.6 more hours per year on the road than the average in
California (2.5 hours per week). Clearly a primary goal of any economic development strategy for the
community must be to bring jobs closer to home to allow residents more time with their family and friends.
Exhibit AE
Exhibit AF
25.7 27.6
32.1 33.8 34.9 35.3 36.3 38.2
42.3
United
States
California Riverside
County
Temecula Murrieta Corona Wildomar Menifee Lake
Elsinore
Mean TravelTimeto/fromWork (Commute)
2,588
3,516
4,204
5,346
6,682
45-59 min Lessthan 15
min
30-44 min 15-29 min 60 min or
more
Number of Workers in Each Category
City ofLakeElsinoreWorkforceCommutetoWork
(to/from)
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 26
Successful communities seek (at minimum) an employment base that is equal to the number of persons in the
community employed (or available for employment). Exhibit AG shows the total number of
companies/employers located in the City of Lake Elsinore by North American Industrial Classification System
(NAICS) Code. The greatest number of firms are in the construction, retail, general business and healthcare.
In terms of employment, Exhibit AH shows the number of employees by sector. Labor intensive businesses
such as retail, construction, hotel/food service and education have the greatest number with healthcare and
manufacturing and government having substantial employment as well. Overall, the employment base in Lake
Elsinore is diversified (rather than being concentrated in a single area). That said, there is simply not enough
employment available locally (hence the long commutes). By review, there is a total labor force (currently) of
26,900 with 25,300 employed. The total local employment in the City of Lake Elsinore is 13,800. Below are
some key ratios to consider (which will be discussed later in the plan):
Local Employment to Total Labor Force: .51 (51%)
Local Employment to Total Employed: .55 (55%)
What these rations essentially state is that for every job in the City of Lake Elsinore, there are two persons
active in the labor force seeking that job. It also says that on average, 45% of Lake Elsinore residents travel
outside the community for work. (note this is a static ratio calculation rather than dynamic).
Exhibit AG
1 8 25 25 27 41 47
86 108 115 115
122 123
154
198
312 329
Number ofFirmsin LakeElsinoreby
NAICS (Industry)Code
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 27
Exhibit AH
H. Housing
The City of Lake Elsinore is going through an explosive growth in new construction housing. Each of the last
three years, the community has seen over 600 new homes constructed. With the sale of homes is coming new
residents that are already employed (see employment section). Growth is being fueled by a number of factors
but namely availability (of land and therefore homes) and affordability. Because land in Lake Elsinore is
generally more affordable than surrounding areas (namely Corona and Temecula), homes can be delivered to
buyers at a more affordable price. We begin this section with Exhibit AI, which shows the median home value.
In reading this chart, do not look to see what a home is worth overall but rather a ratio comparison. For
example, it is fair to say that the median home value (not price) in California is more than twice that of the
nation (United States) as a whole. When looking at Southwest Riverside County, it is fair to say that Menifee,
Wildomar and Lake Elsinore offer more affordable housing opportunities than other areas in the region. It is
also fair to say that residents of Menifee, Wildomar and Lake Elsinore have longer commutes to employment
bases in San Diego, Los Angeles, Orange County and Ontario than others.
4 121 150 247 304 386 433 554 565
616 658 754 793
1438
1695
2000
3096
Employment by NAICS (Industry)Codein LakeElsinore
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 28
Exhibit AI
Owner occupancy in housing is historically higher Riverside County than it is on a statewide or national level.
Demographically this is due to the more suburban nature of communities as a whole in the region versus more
urban centers. Often times people will leave rental situations in more urban or expensive markets in order to
afford their own home. Overall, Lake Elsinore is ranked equal to others in the market place with about 2/3
families owning their own house. Exhibit AJ provides additional information.
Exhibit AJ
$175,700 $198,800 $218,200 $226,900 $236,400
$287,700 $311,100 $335,000
$371,400
United
States
Menifee Lake
Elsinore
Wildomar Riverside
County
Murrieta Temecula Corona California
Median HomeValue
54.80%
64.40%65.20%65.70% 65.70%66.60%67.90%71.30%75.10%
California United
States
Lake
Elsinore
Riverside
County
Temecula Corona Murrieta Wildomar Menifee
PercentageofHousingOwnerOccupied
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 29
It has already been established that Lake Elsinore has a young population and a large percentage of persons in
their working years. It would follow that the number of persons living in each unit (home) is higher than in
other areas. Exhibit AK proves this point. An average of 3.8 persons live in each housing unit, which is a full
person higher than the state average. Communities throughout Southwest Riverside County enjoy a population
of families with children, thus driving the averages higher.
Exhibit AK
10.Introduction to Economic Development Recommendations
Starting at Section 10 are the specific initiatives and recommendations for the City/community to pursue. These
are the tangible items that we recommend. The sections that follow will give an introduction to that particular
item/strategy/deliverable/vision, person(s), departments, agencies, businesses that need to be involved as well as
funding mechanisms. Appendix B will provide a schedule of potential implementation. Some of these items
are project oriented, others are system/policy oriented.
11.Retail Opportunities
There are two schools of thought relative to retail demand. First are retailers that seek retail opportunity or
gaps. This means that there is an existing gap between supply and demand. Other retailers believe that their
product or shopping experience is superior in meeting market demand and therefore they are concerned about
primary demographics and the overall demand within the market rather than specific gaps. DMG’s experience
2.385
2.799 2.88 2.913
3.153 3.244 3.297 3.414
3.802
United
States
California Menifee Riverside
County
Murrieta TemeculaWildomar Corona Lake
Elsinore
PersonsPer Housing Unit
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 30
is that communities that market their demographics and overall market demand attract the attention of
appropriate retailers. After which, they conduct their own demand and gap analysis.
Somewhere in the mix of decision making for retailers is an understanding of where consumers sit in their
Lifestage Cycle. This helps retailers understand not just the current demand for their products/services but how
demand and spending cycles will evolve as a population moves through various stages in life. Presented on the
pages that follow is a presentation regarding Lifestage Segmentation followed by retail market and demand gap
analysis.
P$ycle Lifestage Segmentation
Caution/Note about demographic segmentation: Demographers use Lifestage Segmentation as a means of
understanding market potential for products and services. Not all communities are an ideal match for a
profitable relationship between producers and consumers. DMG’s experience is that some communities and
community members react negatively to Lifestage Segmentation characteristics. Whether people agree with
this portion of the analysis or not, the reality is that many developers, brokers, retailers and other business
types rely on one or more versions of Lifestage Segmentation to make investment decisions.
In short, Lifestage Segmentation is comprised of 12 categories and 58 subcategories. Each household is placed
into a category that best describes where they are on the Lifestage spectrum. This is done to help business
investors determine where to target their products and services. The Lifestage system also is a predictor for
where communities are headed in the future as their residents move through the spectrum. In total,
segmentation includes 12 categories and 58 subcategories, for purposes of this section, we will focus on the
segmentations that most apply to Lake Elsinore.
Note: in the analysis there is a percentage of base presented, this is a comparative versus the United States
average (i.e., 100). Therefore, an actual figure of 110% of base means Lake Elsinore has 10% more households
in that category.
It has already been established that Lake Elsinore is characterized as a young community with a great number of
families with school-age children. The segmentation follows persons and families from young adults (Y) to
establishment of families (F), to career/financial maturity/retirement (M). In terms of Lifestage, the following
segments are where Lake Elsinore has substantial numbers:
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 31
Category Y1: Upwardly Mobile (10.1% of Community)
Upwardly Mobile consists of up-and-coming Americans: five segments of relatively young professionals with
substantial salaries, expensive homes and a range of income-producing assets. Many of these households
contain childless couples who’ve earned college degrees and landed well-paying professional positions.
They’ve already begun building their retirement accounts with mutual funds, stocks and options. And they
make a strong insurance market, buying auto, home and life insurance all at high rates. But many group
members are still young enough to have hefty student loan balances, and they’ve also borrowed to maintain
their go-go lifestyle, taking out personal loans, auto loans and home equity lines of credit. For leisure, these
strivers like to jog, snowboard, surf, go to bars, and read business and sports magazines
Y1: Corporate Climbers (Upper Mid Middle Age a/o Kids) (273% of US Base)
The members of Corporate Climbers are singularly focused on their careers. Mostly 35-54 years old and
childless, these educated White and Asian singles and couples have professional jobs and upper-middle-class
incomes but only moderate assets, invested mostly in mutual funds and retirement accounts. To maintain their
busy lifestyle, they use credit liberally, taking out auto loans, using home equity lines of credit, and carrying
high-end credit cards with revolving balances. They fill their leisure time with sports and entertainment:
mountain biking and skiing, playing tennis and going sailing, frequenting bars and attending nightclubs.
Determined to improve their financial lot, they index high for reading self-help business books, watching
Bloomberg Television, and subscribing to the Wall Street Journal.
Upper Mid Age 35-54 White, Asian, Mix Income Producing Assets (IPA): Moderate
Y1: Fiscal Rookies: Upper Mid Younger w/o Kids (175% of US Base)
The young couples and singles of Fiscal Rookies are financially inexperienced Americans. Despite relatively
high incomes, these 25-to 44-year-olds are not saving a lot of money and have only moderate levels of income-
producing assets. Many of these exurban households carry debt from student and auto loans as well as their
first home mortgages, and they’ve only recently begun dabbling in investment-style insurance and mutual
funds for their 401(k)s. For now, a lot of their money supports active lifestyles and media preferences. Their
top activities include skiing, in-line skating, baseball, and racquetball. When they’re not exercising, they have
high rates for listening to rock radio, reading fitness magazines, and watching comedy shows.
Upper Mid Age 25-44 Mostly White IPA: Below Average
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 32
Category Y2: Metro Mainstream (8.02% of Community)
The five segments that make up the Metro Mainstream group are filled with younger singles, couples, and
families who are tech-savvy but financially challenged. These households have middle class incomes but some
of the nation’s lowest balances for income-producing assets. The residents of this group are still young enough
to have student loan balances and appear to be living within their means. They’ve discovered insurance and
have recently purchased renters, auto, and accidental death and dismemberment insurance. Their top-rated
leisure activity is reading magazines, especially titles like Maxim, Ebony, Rolling Stone,and Modern Bride.
They also listen to Hispanic and urban contemporary radio stations, watch MTV, and are the most likely of all
segments to spend time chatting via online instant messages
Y2: Urban Essentials Lower Mid Middle Age Family Mix (111% of US Base)
The households of Urban Essentials are significant in what they don’t do financially. With their lower income
wages and low levels of assets, they rank at the bottom for savings, investments, and retirement accounts. And
many of these urban renters go without auto, life, or medical insurance as well. A racially diverse mix of
younger urban singles, couples, and families, this group is generally limited in its financial behavior to using
debit cards at ATMs. They rarely buy insurance other than renters or disability coverage. Some members of
Urban Essentials are starting to raise children and they enjoy purchasing kids toys and reading parenting
magazines. This segment also ranks high for listening to gospel music, and consuming all types of Black and
Hispanic oriented media. Lower Mid Age 35-54 White, Black, Asian Hispanic, Mix IPA: Low
Y2: City Strivers Midscale Younger Family Mix (125% of US Base)
Filled with younger apartment dwellers, City Strivers consists mostly of under-35-year old’s with lower-middle-
class to midscale incomes and few income-producing assets. Diverse in both ethnicity and family type, most
attended college and now work at a mix of white-collar and service jobs. But their entry-level salaries don’t go
far, and many are paying off student, car and personal loans. With a majority having children, they’re also
preoccupied with the here-and-now expenses of early childrearing; few tend to have long-term investments,
retirement savings or life insurance. This segment scores high for going to movies, roller skating, playing
volleyball, dancing and buying family-friendly toys. City Strivers members can be found reading gaming and
baby magazines; listening to rock and Hispanic radio; and watching reality TV shows.
Lower Mid Age <35 White, Black, Asian, Hispanic, Mix IPA: Low
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 33
Y3: Fiscal Fledglings (7.23% of Community)
The P$YCLE group with the lowest levels of income and assets, Fiscal Fledglings contains singles and single-
parent families living in urban neighborhoods. These two segments stand in stark contrast to M1 – Financial
Elite, in that they can ill afford most financial products. Their financial holdings consist mainly of student loans
and non-interest-bearing checking accounts. They also are the least likely of all groups to have auto, life, or
residential insurance. The members of Financial Fledglings pursue lifestyle activities that are centered inside
their homes: This group represents one of the top markets for parenting and music magazines as well as for
African-American targeted radio stations and cable TV networks.
Y3: Young Urban Renters Downscale Younger Family Mix (112% of US Base)
Young Urban Renters ranks near the bottom for income and income-producing assets. Members of this
segment are younger, single, and ethnically diverse. Many are raising small children in one parent households.
They’re still paying off student and personal loans as well as installment credit used to furnish their new city
apartments. Despite having low rates for buying insurance products, consumers here have begun exploring
auto, medical, and renter’s coverage. With their limited financial resources, they’re much more likely than
average Americans to spend their leisure time indoors—listening to the radio or going online to visit chat
rooms and job websites. Young Urban Renters is one of the top segments for reading music, parenting, and
women’s fashion magazines. Downscale Age <35 White, Black, Asian, Hispanic, Mix IPA: Low
Y3: Bottom Line Blues Lower Income Middle Age Family Mix (120% of US Base)
Bottom-Line Blues is the most financially challenged of all P$YCLE segments. No segment has fewer
income-producing assets, and few rank lower when it comes to income or home ownership. Concentrated in
inner-city neighborhoods, the segment is the address for mostly younger, multi-ethnic singles and single-
parent families living in low-cost apartments. Many residents have low educations and insecure jobs,
surviving on cash instead of bank or insurance products. Surveys show that members of Bottom-Line Blues
have modest lifestyles, spending their leisure time going online, eating at fast-food restaurants, and listening to
music. This segment ranks number one for tuning in to black-oriented media, including BET, urban
contemporary radio, and magazines like Jet, Essence, and Ebony. Low Income Age <55 White, Black,
Hispanic, Mix IPA: Low
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 34
F1: Flourishing Families (3.50% of Community)
The four segments in Flourishing Families consist of suburbanites with high incomes, large homes (and
mortgages), and substantial income-producing assets. Well educated with executive jobs, these Internet-savvy
residents are the mostly likely of all groups to manage their finances online—paying bills, trading stocks, and
transferring money among mutual funds for their 401(k) accounts. Flourishing Families households tend to be
risk averse, as reflected in their ownership of a wide variety of insurance products: term life, disability
insurance, high-value annuities, and overdraft protection. These well-off families pursue active lifestyles,
with high indexes for playing outdoor sports, buying toys, and visiting theme parks—and using credit cards
that help them rack up airline reward miles
F1: Big Spenders Wealthy Middle Age Mostly w/Kids (109% of US Base)
The suburban Boomers who comprise Big Spenders are the ultimate financial jugglers. With teenagers at
home and retirement looming, they’ve managed to craft both enviable lifestyles and fat portfolios filled with
stock options, mutual funds, securities, and bonds. Higher than average incomes help, but they also rank at the
top for using home equity lines of credit and second mortgages. Big Spenders represents an attractive market
for a range of insurance products: term life, auto, disability and long-term care coverage. But these dual-
income households know how to enjoy their money: they’re twice as likely as average Americans to drive new
cars, frequent casual dining restaurants, and take frequent trips around the world. Top-rated media: airline
magazines, serves as a guide to worldly living. Wealthy Age 35-54 White, Asian, Mix IPA: Above Average
F1: Feathered Nests Wealthy Middle Age Family Mix (111% of US Base)
There’s money tucked away in Feathered Nests, a collection of middle-aged families with high incomes and
above-average investable assets. A mix of college-educated Whites and Asians, these 35- to 54-year-olds
typically hold management jobs and have begun filling their retirement accounts with mutual funds, stocks,
bonds, and CDs. They’re also a strong credit market, often carrying jumbo mortgages and home equity lines of
credit. Insurance omnivores, they own annuities, term and whole life, disability coverage, and auto insurance
for their multiple cars. And they enjoy good-life pursuits, like golfing and sailing, boutique shopping for
children’s toys and collectibles, and tuning their high-end TVs to ice hockey matches and public broadcasting
programs. For investment tips, they read a variety of business magazines. Wealthy Age 35-54 White, Asian,
Mix IPA: Above Average
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 35
F2: Upscale Earners (30.78% of Community)
The seven segments that comprise Upscale Earners feature home-owning families whose adults work at well-
paying management, professional and white-collar jobs. Their upscale incomes make them eligible for second
mortgages and home equity loans. As Baby Boomers and Generation Xers, they’ve already begun to fill their
retirement accounts with company stock, mutual funds and savings bonds. They’re also receptive to a variety of
insurance products, from disability and life insurance too residential and auto coverage. These active families
devote a lot of leisure time to athletic activities such as skiing, biking and bowling. When they come to a rest,
they listen to classic rock and sports on the radio, watch ice hockey and comedy on TV and read parenting and
airlines magazines all at high rates
F2: School Daze Upper Mid Middle Age w/Kids (1,578% of US Base)
A collection of large, suburban households, School Daze represents one of the nation’s best markets for
borrowing. These upper-middle-class families score near the top for having first mortgages, home
improvement loans, and auto loans. Yet these Gen-X parents have only begun to think about retirement, and
they’ve acquired only moderate levels of income-producing assets such as stocks and mutual funds. Being in
their early childrearing years, they’re a prime audience for term life insurance, which they tend to buy from
independent agents whenever a new child is born. With one of the nation’s highest concentrations of children,
School Daze features kid-centric lifestyles characterized by minivans, toys, video games, and lots of sports.
Their favorite media: parenting magazines and classic rock radio. Upper Mid Age 35-54 White, Asian,
Hispanic, Mix IPA: Moderate
F2: Khakis and Credit Upper Mid Older Family Mix (180% of US Base)
They’re a mix of families and couples, town and rural folk. But one thing the Boomer households in Khakis &
Credit share is a fondness for credit to maintain their middle-class lifestyles. Many enjoy incomes that allow
them to qualify for home improvement loans, installment credit, and auto loans for the four-plus cars that many
own. And they also have high rates for using prestige credit cards. Given the mix of household types, the
segment shows a wide range of leisure activities, with above average rates for attending high school sports,
buying electronic games and educational toys, as well as playing soccer and participating in civic affairs. And
though Khakis & Credit members don’t own a lot of income-producing assets, many hedge their credit-happy
ways by buying disability and life insurance. Upper Mid Age 45-64 White, Black, Mix IPA: Below Average
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 36
F2: Family Sprawl Upper Mid Younger w/Kids (297% of US Base)
Their homes may be filled with tykes, bikes, and toys, but the younger, upper-middle-class families of Family
Sprawl also make a solid market for financial products ranging from installment credit and U.S. savings bonds
to auto and term life insurance. Highly leveraged, these mostly thirty-something households are typically
paying off mortgages and auto loans. And though many have recently opened 401(k) accounts and Roth IRAs,
they still score low for investing in stocks, bonds, and money market funds. For now, they’re inundated with
childrearing expenses: This segment ranks at the top for buying children’s toys, bicycles, electronic games,
and videos. With many residents having only recently moved into their first houses, they’re also big users of
Internet Yellow Pages to locate retailers and insurance companies. Upper Mid Age 25-44 White, Asian, Mix
IPA: Below Average
F3: Mass Middle Class (17.53% of Community)
Mass Middle Class consists of seven financial segments that are home to middle-class families living in a mix
of rural, town, and suburban communities. These are middle-aged credit-happy consumers with financial
portfolios consisting mainly of personal loans, second mortgages, and home improvement loans. To protect
their sprawling families from all that debt, Mass Middle Class residents are the most likely of all groups to have
mortgage and credit card insurance. They also score high for owning three cars, acquiring auto loans, and
buying auto insurance—typically through single agent insurance companies. As a group, Mass Middle Class
residents tend to be home-centered, renting videos, buying electronic games, watching children’s cable TV, and
reading women’s and auto magazines at high rates
F3: Rural Roots Upper Mid Middle Age Mostly w/Kids (265% of US Base)
Cash-rich but asset-poor, Rural Roots is a collection of 35- to 54-year-old homeowners raising large families
out in the country. Racially mixed with some college education, the members of this segment have mid to
upper middle class incomes but low income-producing assets. Many of these families have no tradition for
investing in the stock market, and they rank low for owning stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. However, Rural
Roots does make a strong market for debt products, showing high indices for using auto loans, home
mortgages, and installment credit. Kid-centered in their lifestyles, Rural Roots households buy lots of toys, eat
at fast-food restaurants, and enjoy going bowling. When it comes to media, they score high for parenting
magazines, Nick at Night, and contemporary radio. Upper Mid Age 35-54 White, Black, Hispanic, Mix IPA:
Low
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 37
F3: Finance Chargers Midscale Middle Age Mostly w/Kids (122% of US Base)
Small-town, working-class families characterize Finance Chargers, a segment whose households are asset-light
and loan-heavy. These lower-middle-class, 35- to 54-year-old homeowners use a range of installment credit and
finance products—including auto, home improvement, and personal loans. Many are blue-collar workers
employed in farming and construction, and they’re typically conservative in their financial behavior. Members
of Finance Chargers rank near the bottom for acquiring stocks and mutual funds though they do have
respectable rates for owning auto, accidental death and dismemberment insurance. Most households are more
concerned with the costs of raising kids—devoting their funds to toys, games, and family media. This segment
ranks high for parenting magazines and religious radio. Midscale Age 35-54 White, Black, Asian, Hispanic,
Mix IPA: Low
F3: Settling Down Midscale Middle Age Family Mix (150% of US Base)
Settling Down contains middle-aged apartment dwellers living mostly in the metropolitan sprawl. A mix of
races, ethnicities and family types, members have midscale incomes but low levels of income-producing
assets. Heavy users of installment credit, they’re fans of auto loans, and online banking. With average
educations, Settling Down members work at white-collar and service jobs—and own disability and death
insurance to protect their family income. They also have high rates for acquiring term life, renters and auto
insurance. With family-centered lifestyles, they enjoy playing baseball, going to movies and buying toys and
DVDs. This group also makes a strong market for gaming and parenting magazines, MTV and Comedy
Central cable channels and Hispanic and contemporary hit radio. Midscale Age 35-54 White, Black, Asian,
Hispanic, Mix IPA: Low
F3: New Nests Upper Mid Younger Mostly w/Kids (177% of US Base)
Living in small cities and towns, the young families in New Nests are experiencing many firsts. These
households rank at the top for acquiring their first mortgages, auto loans, and installment credit for furnishing
their first homes. Most are still too young to have amassed many assets, but their midscale incomes allow
them to lead home-centered lifestyles filled with toys and games, aerobic exercise, chess, and shopping on
eBay. They’re big Internet fans, frequenting websites that sell term and whole life insurance. And their off-
line media tastes reflect their youthful sensibilities as well. They’re twice as likely as average Americans to
read baby and parenting magazines, and more likely than the general population to listen to country and rock
radio, and watch VH1 and the Cartoon Network. Upper Mid Age 25-44 White, Black, Hispanic, Mix IPA:
Low
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 38
F4: Working-Class USA (13.74% of Community)
The six segments in Working-Class USA offer a mixed portrait: racially and ethnically diverse households of
varied ages, with lower-middle-class incomes from a range of white-collar and service industry jobs. Nearly
nine out of ten residents earn under $30,000; even more have less than $25,000 in income-producing assets.
Despite their downscale profile, many own their homes, allowing them to tap their equity for small loans.
Otherwise, they have little discretionary cash for insurance products and investment vehicles. Working-Class
USA members pursue low-key lifestyles, enjoying needlepoint and watching video rentals as well as going out
to movies. They also enjoy listening to gospel and urban contemporary radio, reading parenting and gaming
magazines, and watching soaps and comedy shows on TV
F4: Getting-By Blue Low Income Older Mostly w/o Kids (105% of US Base)
Life can be a financial challenge in Getting-By Blues. An ethnically diverse segment of 45to 64-year-olds, they
typically rent older apartments in urban and second-city neighborhoods. With low incomes and few assets—
about two-thirds are unemployed— these consumers rank near the bottom for most banking and insurance
products. But they do exhibit above-average rates for owning renters and whole life insurance. Pursuing quiet
lifestyles, they enjoy camping, renting videos, and reading about their favorite form of entertainment–soap
operas. Low Income Age 45-64 White, Black, Hispanic, Mix IPA: Low
F4: Economizers Downscale Middle Age Family Mix (157% of US Base)
With nearly all its households earning under $30,000 a year, Economizers is one of the nation’s poorest
financial groups. These racially mixed singles and single-parent families have few investments or other assets.
Typically living in apartments in big-city neighborhoods, they show low indices for buying most insurance
products other than low-value renters, car, and whole life insurance. And Economizers households have little
discretionary cash for traveling, dining out, or enjoying big-ticket sports. With a lifestyle influenced by the
presence of young children, this segment ranks near the top for a variety of ethnic- and family-targeted media:
watching TV wrestling and BET, reading baby and parenting magazines, and listening to gospel radio.
Downscale Age <55 White, Black, Hispanic, Mix IPA: Low
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 39
M1: Financial Elite (.12% of Community)
Americans with the highest number of income-producing assets belong to Financial Elite, a group consisting of
the nation’s most affluent financial segments. These households tend to contain older suburban couples who
own their homes, earn the highest incomes, and have income-producing assets in the top five percent of U.S.
households. With large sums of money to manage, these two segments rank near the top for investing in stocks,
buying real estate, owning annuities, and using estate-planning services. And their deep pockets translate into
enviable lifestyles: they travel widely, shop at high-end department stores, attend cultural events, and read
business publications all at high rates
M2: Wealthy Achievers (4.22% of Community)
The five segments in Wealthy Achievers exemplify stress-free living: mature couples in luxury homes whose
children have mostly left the parental nest. With lofty incomes from professional and managerial jobs, they’ve
amassed large portfolios filled with bonds, stocks, annuities, and real estate. They also buy a lot of term life,
residential, and auto insurance. A disproportionate number have a second mortgage, personal and home equity
lines of credit, and a high credit card balance. Nevertheless, they indulge their philanthropic impulses,
exhibiting high rates for donating to public broadcasting and the arts. And these well-educated consumers
gladly pay for advice from financial professionals—besides getting tips from favored media like Kiplinger’s
Personal Finance,the Wall Street Journal Report and Bloomberg Television
M2: Domestic Bliss Wealthy Older Family Mix (148% of US Base)
Domestic Bliss is home to fashionable couples in their peak earning years. Consisting mostly of adults between
the ages of 45 and 64, the White, Black, and Asian households in this segment report six-figure incomes and
income-producing assets of over $100,000. Generally, college graduates, they work in management, own their
home, and hold extensive investments in stocks, mutual funds, bonds, and real estate. They have solid credit
profiles and typically have second mortgages, home equity loans, and personal lines of credit, not to mention
auto, term life, long-term care, and investment-style insurance policies. Active and cultured, Domestic Bliss
members travel abroad, attend the theater, and enjoy tennis, golf, and skiing. With their sizable portfolios, they
have high rates for using full-service brokers and estate planning services. Wealthy Age 45-64 White, Black
Asian, Mix IPA: Above Average
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 40
M2: Home Sweet Equity Upscale Older Mostly w/o Kids (149% of US Base)
Upscale incomes, above average assets, and home-owning couples make this segment an attractive market for
large-balance credit products. In Home Sweet Equity, many of the 45- to 64-year-old residents are tapping the
value of their older homes with home equity loans, second mortgages, and home improvement loans. With
well-paying white-collar jobs, these traditionalists rank high for buying fixed-rate annuities and using credit
unions and savings and loan associations. Their above-average presence in exurban areas also helps explain
their fondness for hunting, power boating, and buying from mail-order catalogs. Given their busy schedules,
they get what information they can about life, medical, and mortgage insurance from newspaper ads and TV
and radio commercials—especially oldies radio stations. Upscale Age 45-64 Mostly White IPA: Above
Average
M3: Upscale Empty Nests (.81% of Community)
The four segments in Upscale Empty Nests are moving towards comfortable retirements. With most residents
over 65 years old, they report middle-class incomes and above-average levels of assets. Typically, college-
educated workers who made good money in white-collar jobs, many now own expensive homes and have fat
portfolios filled with certificates of deposit, annuities, mutual funds and stocks. At their advancing ages, they
also buy a lot of insurance, including policies for life insurance, auto, residential and medical coverage. But
their solid finances allow them to lead carefree lifestyles characterized by gardening, theater-going and casino
gambling. And unlike younger consumers, the members of Upscale Empty Nests seek out financial advice from
professionals, using full-service brokerages and estate planning services at high rates
M4: Midscale Matures (1.84% of Community)
Life can be a struggle for Midscale Matures, a group of six segments characterized by over-55 singles and
couples with working-class wages and proportionately few income-producing assets. Lacking discretionary
income, these seniors offer a relatively weak market for most financial products. However, they do have CDs,
savings accounts, low-value whole life insurance, and medical insurance through Medicaid/Medicare. While
they report paying a lot of attention to information they receive about long-term care insurance, they are no
more likely than any other group to actually own such policies. Where they do excel is in watching television—
especially daytime TV and daily newscasts
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 41
M5: Retirement Blues (2.12% of Community)
The five segments in Retirement Blues offer only modest financial prospects. In this group of over-65-year-old
singles and couples, both incomes and income-producing assets are at low levels. These conservative consumers
rank high in only a handful of financial areas, such as receiving direct deposits from Social Security, using non-
interest checking accounts, owning individual medical insurance, and buying low-value life insurance.
Retirement Blues residents tend to pursue home-based lifestyles: when they’re not watching television—daytime
game shows, nightly news programs, and QVC shopping network are popular—they collect coins and play the
lottery at high rates.
Note: Descriptions are provided by Nielsen and are not the work product of Development Management Group,
Inc. DMG does maintain a license for use of research by Nielsen.
Retailers each have their own primary and secondary geographic markets. Some retailers, such as a 7-11 may
plan on drawing from a fairly small radius around a store (say 1 or 2 miles) plus flow-thru traffic. Other
retailers, like an Ikea or Bass Pro Shop may plan on drawing from 50+ miles away (Who wouldn’t drive 50
miles for Ikea meatballs!) Below are the current traffic counts that retailer rely on (in part) in making market
decisions.
Exhibit AL
Traffic Counts on Interstate 15 (Exits into Lake Elsinore)
Location Peak Hour Peak Month (Daily) Average Daily
I-15 & Railroad Canyon Road 9,200 129,000 124,000
I-15 & Main Street 9,000 126,000 121,000
I-15 & Highway 74 (Central Avenue)8,500 118,000 114,000
I-15 & Nichols 8,600 120,000 116,000
I-15 & Lake Street 9,100 127,000 122,000
On average, each resident in the City of Lake Elsinore accounts for total retail demand of $13,707 per year. It
follows that as the City continues to grow, so will retail demand. For each 100 new homes built, approximately
350 new residents are added which generates additional retail demand of $4.80 million annually. A year in
which 500 homes are built and sold equates to about $24 million in new retail demand.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 42
Exhibit AM
Retail Opportunities (Estimated 2016 Consumer Expenditures)
(Centroid: I-15 & Highway 74 (Central Avenue)
Retail Category w/in City 5-Mile Radius 10-Mile Radius
Total Retail Demand $795.82 MM $1.09 Billion $3.63 Billion
Motor Vehicle Sales $134.69 MM $218.80 MM $595.07 MM
Automotive Parts $ 11.15 MM $ 15.40 MM $ 51.29 MM
Furniture/Home Furnishings $ 14.95 MM $ 20.44 MM $ 69.02 MM
Electronics $ 14.30 MM $ 19.35 MM $ 63.51 MM
Building Materials $ 78.23 MM $108.51 MM $372.20 MM
Grocery Stores $108.15 MM $148.84 MM $490.96 MM
Specialty Foods $ 9.29 MM $ 12.74 MM $ 41.84 MM
Pharmacies & Drug (w/HABA)$ 37.84 MM $ 53.59 MM $191.23 MM
Gasoline Stations $ 58.92 MM $ 80.91 MM $262.69 MM
Clothing $ 38.79 MM $ 52.39 MM $170.22 MM
Sporting Goods $ 15.06 MM $ 20.18 MM $ 65.00 MM
Office Supplies $ 10.05 MM $ 13.75 MM $ 45.71 MM
Full-Service Restaurants $ 40.22 MM $ 54.62 MM $179.25 MM
Limited Service Restaurants $ 36.03 MM $ 48.97 MM $160.35 MM
Retail Opportunity Gap(s)
Presented below is a retail opportunity (or gap) analysis. Note that Southwest Riverside County has a
combination of native demand (residents) and flow-thru demand (traffic flow on Interstate 15 and 215 (some
additional on Highway 74). Because of the long commutes that drivers face to job centers and the number of
hours spent away from home/family, there are a couple categories in which there appears to be over-saturation
whereby in actuality there may still be opportunity. This includes gasoline sales and limited service restaurants.
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City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 43
Exhibit AN
Retail Opportunity Gap (Estimated for 2016)
Represents IMMEDIATE Consumer Demand that Exceeds Supply/Sales
(Centroid: I-15 & Highway 74 (Central Avenue)
Retail Category 5-Mile Radius 10-Mile Radius 15-Mile Radius
Total Retail Demand $214.26 MM $1.36 Billion $573.00 MM
Motor Vehicle Sales $ 85.96 MM $604.63 MM $181.29 MM
Automotive Parts $ ( .73 MM)$ 16.73 MM $ 18.85 MM
Furniture/Home Furnishings $ 5.36 MM $ 15.77 MM $ ( 3.36 MM)
Electronics $ 8.51 MM $ (13.04 MM)$ (58.52 MM)
Building Materials $ 21.08 MM $ (23.89 MM)$( 16.46 MM)
Grocery Stores $ 26.40 MM $188.70 MM $295.94 MM
Specialty Foods $ 13.76 MM $ 47.39 MM $ 74.89 MM
Pharmacies & Drug (w/HABA)$ (14.58 MM)$ (47.18)MM $ (39.39 MM)
Gasoline Stations*$ (27.22 MM)$ 45.33 MM $ (20.22 MM)
Clothing $ 9.05 MM $ 103.72MM $ (10.44 MM)
Sporting Goods $ 12.39 MM $ 46.35 MM $ 49.80 MM
Office Supplies $ 9.50 MM $ 22.41 MM $ 8.09 MM
Full-Service Restaurants $ 22.07 MM $ 73.21 MM $ 43.26 MM
Limited Service Restaurants $ ( 4.81 MM)$ (58.04 MM)$(109.45 MM)
When utilizing a combination of Exhibits AM and AN, DMG has determined the following:
A.There is immediate retail opportunity for $214.26 million within a five (5) mile radius of the heart of the
City of Lake Elsinore.
B.This existing and immediate retail opportunity (if filled) would generate the need for an additional
857,040 square feet of retail space (at $250.00 in gross sales per square foot)
C.Construction of 857,040 at $175 per square foot (estimated cost of superstructures plus infrastructure)
would generate total construction costs of about $150 million. This would generate a total of 1,350
construction jobs.
D.The additional space (and retailers) would generate a total of 2,780 new jobs (direct, indirect and
induced) to operate the businesses.
E.The additional space would generate about $2.14 million annually in local sales and use tax and about
$175,000 annually in net property tax to the City of Lake Elsinore.
F.Further, for each 100 new homes constructed, new demand of $ 4.8 million in new retail sales is
generated. This translates to 19,200 square feet of new retail construction each year which will generate
an additional 30 construction jobs 62 operational jobs. The annual tax revenue to the City is estimated
to be $48,000 in sales and use tax and $4,200 in net to the City property tax.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 44
Retailers that are a match for the City of Lake Elsinore (based on all location, demographic and Lifestage
Segmentation factors) vary but should include a mix of shopping that accommodate income categories from
lower middle class to upper middle class, targeting families and those improving their (often new) homes and
are accessible for families with school-age children with long commutes for employment. The following are
examples by sub-category. The specific names of many of these desired retailers were suggested by the over
100 people that were interviewed in the assembly of this plan and survey responses received by over 500
residents.(Note some are already located within the City and may add additional locations).
Super-Regional Serving
Fry’s Electronics
Ikea
Bass Pro Shops
Cabela’s
Warehouse/ Home Improvement
Costco
Sam’s Club
Lowe’s
Home Depot
Adult/Gathering Spot Oriented
Micro-Brew / Gastro-Pub
Locally Owned Full Service/Limited Service
Grocery
Stater Brothers
Albertson’s
Von’s
Ralphs
Cardenas
Northgate Gonzales
Rio Ranch Market
Food for Less
WinCo Foods
Walmart (Superstore with Grocery)
Target (Superstore with Grocery)
Trader Joes
Whole Foods
Dollar General/Family Dollar
Sav-A-Lot
Full-Service/Family Oriented
Red Lobster
Chili’s
Applebee’s
Yard-House
Olive Garden
Mexican Food (full service)
Hometown Buffet
Golden Corral
Sushi
Greek
BJ’s
Macaroni Grill
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 45
Family Soft Goods
Kohl’s
JCPenney
Ross / DD Discount
Marshall’s
TJ Maxx
Homegoods
Kirkland
Nordstrom Rack
Van’s
Sketchers
WSS (Shoes)
Lids
Hobby Lobby
Michael’s
JoAnn’s
Jos A Bank
Men’s Warehouse
Casual Dining
Blaze Pizza
Panera Bread
Yoshinoya
Waba Grill
Chipotle
Flame Broiler
Dunkin Donuts
In-N-Out
Pieology
Sonic
Greek
Sushi/Japanese
Panda Express
Primo’s Mexican
Automotive
New Car: Toyota
New Car: Nissan
New Car: Honda
New Car: Kia
New Car: Fiat
New Car: Volkswagen
Pre-Owned Superstore (Carmax)
Big O Tires – Auto Repair/Tires
Firestone – Auto Repair/Tires
Sears Automotive – Auto Repair/Tires
Les Schwab – Auto Repair/Tires
Fix Auto – Paint/Body/Insurance Repair
Home Furnishings
Ashley
Jerome’s
Mor Furniture
Gasoline/Convenience Store
Mobil
Union 76
Arco AMPM
Circle K
7-11
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 46
12. Economic Development Partnerships
Lake Elsinore must work to leverage the partnership potential it has with various organizations for purposes of
increasing commerce. This section of the economic development strategic plan will briefly introduce these
commerce partners and provide specific recommendations as to what can be done to best receive economic
benefit from these partnerships.
Lake Elsinore Valley Chamber of Commerce
The Lake Elsinore Valley Chamber of Commerce and the City of Lake Elsinore have maintained a strong
relationship for a number of years. The Chamber serves as a voice and communication channel to the business
community while championing overall commerce for the city and region. The City should continue partnering
with the Chamber in areas relative to space inventory, messaging/communication to the business community,
assisting in providing tours and information to economic investors and providing an independent view of
commerce.
Southwest Riverside County Economic Development Corporation
The sub-region of Southwest Riverside County has chosen to work together for the benefit of the region. All of
the communities in the sub-region face similar challenges relative to the long commute times for their
population and a younger population that will be entering the job market in coming years. The City of Lake
Elsinore should continue to be an active participant in joint efforts to bring new industry to the region so long as
the other community participants are willing to sign on to non-poaching agreements to keep others in the region
from working to move businesses from one community to another within the area.
Inland Empire Film Commission
The Inland Empire Film Commission was founded in 1993 as an arm of the larger Inland Empire Economic
Partnership (IEEP). The purpose of the film commission is to provide marketing and technical assistance to
various types of production companies to encourage them to utilize various facilities, sites and locations within
the Inland Empire for their activities. The Inland Empire is defined by the Film Commission as both Riverside
and San Bernardino Counties. Funding for IEFC is mostly from the public sector from communities seeking
film activity. For Lake Elsinore, film activity (still, print and motion) can provide additional economic activity
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 47
in the community through hotel stays, food service and other needed items to support shoots. It is recommended
that Lake Elsinore:
1. Negotiate a modest investment in IEFC to become a partner
2. Determine the top 5-10 film locations within the community (combination of fixed buildings, regional
attributes and geographic features) and build electronic inventory for inclusion with IEFP and internal to the
City of Lake Elsinore (on City website).
3. Consider allowing IEFC and/or local organizations (such as Chamber of Commerce) streamlined permitting
capabilities for location shoots in the City of Lake Elsinore and provide them with ability to arrange through
Riverside County Sheriff’s Department for appropriate road arrangements (when needed). It is important
that there exists the ability to provide permitting on short time frames (often evenings, weekends and when
City Hall is generally closed).
4. Permit fees for film related projects should be modest to non-existent. For Cities that allow for outside
organizations (such as IEFP or the Chamber) to permit film production, those organizations often keep the
revenue from receipts generated as a means of funding the permitting activity).
5. Permits issued should require credit notation in projects in favor of the City of Lake Elsinore.
Lake Elsinore (City) Economic Development Sub-Committee
The City of Lake Elsinore has an existing Economic Development Sub-Committee consisting of two (2)
members of the City Council along with the City Manager. The purpose of the Sub-Committee should be:
1. Keeping informed regarding progress of development activity (that is often confidential) (Therefore each
member could be subject to a “Confidentiality” or “Non-Disclosure Agreement”)
2. Act as the “welcoming team” when appropriate to meet with brokers, developers and interested economic
investors (ambassador role).
3. Serve as the “point person(s)” at economic investment recruitment events which may include, but are not
limited to, ICSC (Las Vegas and San Diego) and specific industry trade shows.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 48
City/School District 2X2 Ad-Hoc
In order to economically prosper, educational achievement must be made a priority by the everyone within the
community. At current, some 22.3% of adults 25+ lack a high school diploma or GED. This severely limits
their ability to participate in the workforce and economically prosper. All too often this statistic is directly tied
to the percentage of persons living in poverty (14.5% in Lake Elsinore), as most people without an education
are simply not employable for even the most basic of jobs. Communities that have high levels of educational
achievement economically prosper, it is as simple as that. The community must have a goal to reduce the
percentage of adults without a high school diploma (or GED) and increase the number of persons with a
bachelor’s degree or higher (which currently stands at 16.1%). No economic development effort can replace a
highly educated workforce.
As there are many topics of mutual interest between a City and School District (from staffing to facilities to
public safety), it is recommended that the City and School District create a 2x2 committee whereas the
administrative heads of the two organizations and two members of the elected bodies meet on a regular basis.
In regards to the business community, there needs to be greater exploration of job shadowing, internships and
meaningful work-study programs that introduce students to new career opportunities in the medical, hospitality
and business support/distribution fields.
City/Elsinore Valley Municipal Water District (EVMWD) 2X2 Ad-Hoc
The community of Lake Elsinore is served by the Elsinore Valley Municipal Water District (EVMWD) for
water and wastewater service. This is a government agency that is governed by a Board of Directors that is
elected by the citizens/residents of their service area. Water and wastewater infrastructure is a vital part of
economic development. Lake Elsinore faces additional challenges based on the topography of the community.
It is recommended that the City and EVMWD establish a 2x2 AD-Hoc Committee to meet on a regular basis to
discuss issues of mutual concern. This can include supply/capacity, infrastructure planning, fees and joint
projects.
Note about economic development initiatives: some have been tried previously are currently underway or
have been done. Many economic development initiatives are ongoing in the form of both tangible efforts and
communication plans. They are still highlighted as a reminder of their importance in the process of
generating new/ongoing economic investment.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 49
13. The Lake “Lake Elsinore”
There are few communities in Inland Southern California with a body of water that is available for recreational
purposes. This asset has brought economic success to the community for over one-hundred years. Certainly
any fresh water natural lake will have ongoing issues, as overall water supply and health of the lake is often at
the mercy of mother nature. That said, the City and EVMWD have worked to create a partnership that helped
stabilize lake levels through the use of reclaimed (treated) water. The community has the opportunity to expand
the utilization of the Lake as ongoing economic development infrastructure. Below are the specific
recommendations:
Lake Utilization Suggestions
1.Use of Lake after dark with certain safety provisions for watercraft
2.Use of alcohol on the Lake with certain safety provisions
3.Communication Plan to counter water safety/health perception
4.Expand concession opportunities for fuel providers
5.Expand concession opportunities for boating/water private event promoters to utilize Lake for special
events (waterskiing, jet-skiing, triathlon, fishing, boat shows)
6.Encourage development opportunities on shorelines through certainty of permitting process and
cooperation of applicable regulatory agencies
7.Have definitive answer/direction in regards to shoreline benchmark (1255 v. 1265) that is agreed to by
the City and regulatory agencies
8.Encourage development of shoreline residential opportunities
9.Encourage development of shoreline commercial opportunities (restaurants, hotels, shopping districts)
La Laguna Campground
Undertake efforts to the City-owned campground to rehabilitate camping areas and other amenities. This may
include offering infrastructure to encourage full-service camping (instead of dry-camping). Creation and
utilization of an online reservation system which allows for reservations and marketing of the campground to
those seeking that recreational opportunity. DMG also recommends that the City of Lake Elsinore seek voter
approval to expand the application to Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) to cover campgrounds (private and
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 50
publicly owned) in order to generate funding to pay for essential city services and generate a marketing budget
for the campground.
14. Downtown
Traditional “Downtowns” in suburban (and even rural) communities have been in a state of transition for at
least two (2) generations. What was historically the “center” of a community has largely moved as consumer
behavior has moved retail development to malls, power centers and outlets. Auto dealerships have created their
own mall-type environment. Even healthcare providers have chosen to move to purpose built facilities (many
of them are office-condominiums affording the providers and opportunity to own their own real estate). Cities
across California have spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to “redevelop” their Downtown often
fighting against market forces. The result, except in a few select cases, has been an economic disaster.
DMG’s overarching recommendation is to not fight against market forces, rather encourage open capitalism in
the core of the City. The result will be eclectic but it will also mean economic opportunity for small
independent businesses (that otherwise have little to no opportunity in malls, power centers and other areas).
Additionally, it will create product service opportunities that are a combination of locally owned, specialized
and local serving to a surrounding area within walking distance, for those with transportation challenges. The
bottom line is a “Downtown Utopia” is expensive and rarely works. A permissive and welcoming approach
will create economic activity and opportunity which is certainly more welcome than boarded up windows and
empty streets. The overall goal is simple… occupancy first, utopia later.
Downtown Anchors (Government):
Government Center / City Hall
Library
Fire Station
County Administrative Facilities
Post Office
Charter (K-12) Schools (with Joint Use for Park Facilities)
Satellite campus for Junior College, California State University, University of California and/or Trade Schools
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 51
Downtown Storefront Uses:
Non-Profit Office Space/Activity Use
Artist Cooperatives
Medical/Dental/Optical Clinics/Offices
Community Group Office Space/Activity Use
Community Events (Privately/Non-Profit Sponsored) for Art, Music, Performance, Food Trucks
Celebrate/Expand Hispanic Core of Businesses
Micro-Brew
Independent Gastro-Pubs /Restaurants
Retailers/Service Providers Specializing in Youth, Family Activities and those Targeting People within
Walking Distance of the Downtown
City Regulatory Considerations
Minimal Improvement Requirements
Phased Requirements
Relax/Remove Parking Requirements for existing buildings (persons utilizing Downtown businesses are
accustomed to parking and walking)
Increase Signage Opportunities (allow marketplace to dictate signage for specified period of time)
Strategy for Homeless
Conversion of Buildings to Live-Work to increase housing opportunities in Downtown
Expedited (Streamlined) Permitting Process
15. Destination Lake Elsinore (Tourism/Hospitality) “Import Money/Export Memories”
For generations, the City of Lake Elsinore has utilized the “Lake” as its greatest tourism asset. In more recent
years, Lake Elsinore has been the recipient of a “spillover effect” of tourism in surrounding markets (namely
Temecula). The community, in recent years, is beginning to experience their own core destination travel for
sports and entertainment, some of which is what the community calls extreme sports. This includes sky-diving,
off-road racing, wakeboarding, waterskiing and boat racing.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 52
Youth Sports Recreation Tourism
At current, there is a trend among youth and families that provides a unique opportunity for the City. This is
relation to youth sports tourism. Youth sports today involves club/travel teams and regional/national
competitions that bring people together from a wider geography. Some of the sports utilizing the club/travel
approach include baseball, softball, soccer, basketball, cheerleading, volleyball, gymnastics and dance. The
reality is these visitors spend money on hotels, in restaurants, on services (such as urgent care) and on last
minute equipment (who hasn’t arrived at a soccer tournament only to realize that their child left their shin
guards at home!) The following are the identified opportunities to create a core presence in this category.
Develop Championship Softball Facility (under construction)
Develop In-Door Multi-Sports Facility (Basketball, Volleyball, Cheer, Dance, Gymnastics)
Develop Championship Baseball Facilities (or explore partnership with surrounding school district(s) for same
under joint use agreements)
Develop Tournament Level Soccer Facilities
Off-Road Extreme Racing
The Lucas Oil Off-Road Series is already headquartered in Lake Elsinore, but is housed in leased/rented
facilities. The City of Lake Elsinore should work with the owners of the series and race promoters, operators
and sponsors to identify a permanent home to construct a purpose built facility for off-road truck racing and
motocross racing. The facility would have uses other than on race day. There are opportunities for equipment
manufacturers to use it for product testing and as a tourist attraction for either “amateur/hobbyists”, off-road
clubs and those seeking to rent/ride attend a driving/racing school. In auto-racing there are similar tracks
including Chuckwalla, Thermal and Willow Springs. As a companion land-use and as a buffer to other areas of
the City, it would be encouraged to have a business/industrial park area adjacent that allows a variety of
businesses involved in similar sport to house/co-habituate. This is similar to a “gasoline alley” approach.
Baseball Stadium
The Lake Elsinore Storm have been bringing family entertainment to Lake Elsinore and surrounding
community residents for over 20 years. In that time, some 3 million+ visitors have enjoyed Storm Baseball.
The reality is the stadium is in use between 70-80 days a year for the Storm Season and the facility (and parking
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 53
areas) have the ability to host a number of other special events. These include concerts, car shows, auto swap
meets, used car sales, RV shows, Boat Shows (especially if there can be close-proximity lake access). Because
the stadium offers plentiful parking and access to the levee of Lake Elsinore, competitive or charity events
involving running, walking and mountain biking are a match as a companion use to the stadium.
(EIA of IE 66ers)
Cardroom Casino / Off-Track Betting
The City of Lake Elsinore is home to a private state licensed cardroom. The cardroom offers a variety of
gaming opportunities including poker and what are referred to as “Cal Games”. The cardroom also
owns/operates an Econo Lodge immediately adjacent. The ownership has recently completed an expansion that
includes a sports bar type facility and off-track betting (para-mutual betting for licensed horse race tracks). This
is an entertainment draw for 21+ adults and is an important element of a more holistic approach to tourism and
entertainment development.
Hot Water / Boutique Hotel/Spa
Lake Elsinore is one of the few places where there are naturally occurring hot water sources that are accessible.
Hot water sources can be used as a source of water for pools and spas that are used for recreational (and some
say medicinal/healing) purposes. Hot water is generally unregulated and is available for any person(s) that can
successfully access it. The City has the opportunity to have the sources mapped, cross referenced to available
properties (or all properties) and communicate that with a combination of current hot water hotel/spa oriented
operators and new economic investors.
16. Community Economic Basics
The City of Lake Elsinore is now more than 128 years old. The community boasts a combination of old and
new. The old of Lake Elsinore is deep in historical significance to the community. It represents character,
identity and individualism. The new represents investment, the future, families and beginnings. One drawback
to a community developing as Lake Elsinore is at current is the potential for separation or bifurcation.
Examples of bifurcated communities include Chula Vista and San Marcos, where there is a core community
(and downtowns) and a newer area where there has been an influx of development and more recent investment.
Chula Vista has “Eastlake” and San Marcos has “San Elijo Hills”. Lake Elsinore has Tuscany Hills, Summerly,
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 54
Rosetta Canyon and Alberhill Ranch. The community must address the potential for bifurcation and use a
number of tools to prevent such from happening. These include:
Community Pride and Improvement
1.Ensure that vacant buildings do not become damaged from vagrants and squatters
2.Aggressively prevent, clean-up and prosecute illegal dumpers
3.Apply code enforcement to all neighborhoods and land-use purposes as an aggressive way to set,
enforce and maintain community standards.
4.Do not Allow for debris/trash to gather and/or “junk yards” or other eyesore collections by utilization of
volunteer clean up days and sponsorship/maximization of trash vendor contract.
5.General Clean-up of community takes less time to clean something than issue citations. Demolish (or
cause to be) old buildings beyond their economic useful life.
6.Consider specific target of Machado Street and Lakeland Village Area for neighborhood
improvement/cleanup whether with CDBG, Housing Rehabilitation, Code Enforcement, Volunteer
Clean Up or Corporate Sponsorship (Allstate/Farmers Programs)
7.Escrow Pre-Closing Code Inspection, the City of Lake Elsinore may consider a mandatory escrow pre-
closing inspection for all housing units or certain types of housing units. This will enable code
enforcement to ensure that the ownership transfer is partially dictated by bringing the housing unit(s) up
to an acceptable standard.
8.Entry Monument Signage, to identify not only major attractions in the City but specific neighborhoods
or villages within the community.
9.Create a mural/art program for Downtown buildings in which local artists and/or through an Art in
Public Places program building sides are painted to reflect the history of Lake Elsinore and/or the
Southwest Riverside County Region. Allow a small portion of said buildings to be utilized for the
advertising/signage of the group/organization/company that sponsored the art.
10.Utilize programs like Kaboom to generate new playground areas for the community in pocket parks,
vacant (former RDA) parcels to give families gathering places
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 55
Community Connecting Infrastructure
1.Themed Signage that identifies various portions of the City (including the areas described above)
2.Application or other mapping type tool that keeps residents and visitors understanding that the
community, while made up of various parts/pieces is one and united by a common spirit and sense of
community pride. The most certain theme of this is “Dream Extreme”
17. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
Many cities choose to focus on tax revenue as the core of their economic development efforts. DMG strongly
recommends that the core of Lake Elsinore’s campaign be creating an impetus for the creation of living wage
jobs (also known as a Jobs, Jobs, Jobs campaign). With the highest amount of time being spent by residents to
commute to jobs and a large resident/job imbalance, there is no greater impact to the community, its residents
and their families than the generation of jobs that allow people to work closer to home. Jobs that pay a living
wage that allows people to purchase houses, pay for transportation, afford activities for their children, allow for
entertainment purchases and even give folks an opportunity to save for a rainy day and save for
college/retirement.
Previously in this report, we established that there are about 23,900 Lake Elsinore residents that are employed.
Further, there are about 13,800 jobs within the City. Using a static state analysis, there are then 10,100 persons
that leave the City (net) for employment. We also established that the City is short of retail to provide for its
natural population by about 2,780 jobs. This means that there is a net need for 7,320 jobs in manufacturing,
distribution, office and medical within the community. DMG has generated some international calculations
based on land use/space utilization data and estimates that one (1) job in the combined job creating sectors of
office and flex space for each 677 square feet of total space and (1) job in the combined blue collar job
categories of light manufacturing and warehouse operations for each 1,397 square feet of space. In total, the
City of Lake Elsinore need an additional 2.59 million square feet of space to meet the existing job needs of
white collar workers and 3.72 million square feet of space to meet the local existing job needs of blue collar
workers. Finally, the community is short approximately 1.5 million square feet of space for service industries to
support the existing community. This is in addition to the previously established need for an additional 857,000
square feet of retail/service space needed in the City to meet current demand.In total, the City of Lake Elsinore
needs an additional 8,670,000 square feet of commercial space to accommodate the job and retail/service
demands of the current population. Exhibit AO provides the calculations.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 56
Exhibit AO
Immediate Building Space Demand in Lake Elsinore
Currently Employed Lake Elsinore Residents 23,887
Jobs Located in Lake Elsinore: 13,814
Net Jobs Exported to Other Areas: 10,073
Percentage of Lake Elsinore Residents Blue Collar Jobs: 26.45%
Percentage of Lake Elsinore Residents White Collar Jobs: 52.39%
Percentage of Residents Retail/Service Jobs: 21.17%
Estimated Residents Commuting Blue Collar Jobs: 2,664
Estimated Residents Commuting White Collar Jobs: 3,821
Estimated Residents Commuting Retail/Service Jobs: 2,132
Blue Collar Space: 1 Job Per 1,397 Square Feet
White Collar Space: 1 Job Per 677 Square Feet
Retail/Service 1 Job Per 1,109 Square Feet
New Construction Space Needed to Accommodate Blue Collar Jobs: 3.72 mm Square Feet
New Construction Space Needed to Accommodate White Collar Jobs: 2.59 mm square Feet
New Construction Space Needed to Accommodate Retail/Service Jobs: 2.36 mm Square Feet
Deduct Established Retail Space Need (857,000) Net Service Space Needed: 1.50 mm Square Feet
Conclusion: Total Square Feet Additional Commercial Space Needed to Accommodate
Existing Workforce and Retail Demand: 8,670,000 square feet
The categories most likely to see additional growth (in terms of space and utilization) for blue and white collar
jobs are:
1.Medical/Health Care/Hospital/Staged Care to serve the community and region
2.Warehousing (to serve Inland Empire, San Diego Markets)
3.Production/Manufacturing/Assembly (light and typically high-value products)
4.Just in Time Warehousing (resident serving for Southwest Riverside County residents) such as
Amazon and Wal-Mart.
5.Entrepreneur Driven/Owned Flex Space (Flex space is a word used to describe smaller/newer
industrial looking buildings that can be used for office, distribution, warehousing, light
manufacturing and even light retail). The City should encourage flex condominiums that allow
for business owners to own their own space, thereby increasing the likeliness they remain and
grow in the community.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 57
6.Industrial space (lease, ownership or condominium-ownership) to support companies seeking
access to San Diego and Orange County but desire to own their own facility and/or reduce
overhead expenses. This category will also support construction companies that need a place for
back office support, equipment and material storage and project staging.
7.General Office to support local/regional companies specializing in professional services such as
insurance, finance and real estate
18. Infrastructure
The City of Lake Elsinore has three major infrastructure challenges. First, as described previously it is a mix of
the old and new. Second, the community has significant elevation changes (topography). Finally, the City is
located on both sides of Interstate 15, a major corridor connecting San Diego and Ontario/Rancho Cucamonga
as well as providing access to Highway 91(Orange County) and Interstate 10 (Los Angeles)
Below are major infrastructure items that need to be completed in order to improve access, provide additional
safety/security for existing residents and induce economic investment:
1.Additional or Modified Interchanges from Interstate 15
2.Access to Tuscany Hills
3.Camino Del Norte Extension
4.Nichols Road Extension
5.Highway 74 Improvements from I-15 to I-5
6.City of Lake Elsinore control of Highway 74 from western to eastern city boundary (all four segments to
include Grand, Riverside, Collier and Central)
7.City/Community Energy Plan (Solar)
8.Improved Circulation in/around Lake Elsinore to Link Various Areas/Neighborhoods
19. Housing as an Economic Development Strategy
The greatest strength and resource of any community are the people that live in it. They bring life experience,
culture, enthusiasm and energy. Lake Elsinore is certainly on a high-grown trajectory. Manifesting in a large
number of homes being built each of the last four or five years and entitlements (maps) to fuel homebuilding for
decades to come. While some new home buyers are coming from within the community, most are new to Lake
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 58
Elsinore. They are coming to take advantage of new product, modern conveniences, a temperate climate and
access to major entertainment markets at a moderate price. Who wouldn’t want to buy and live in a brand-new
home?
These new residents also represent additional consumers, greater levels of educational achievement and
current/future entrepreneurs. The economic investment people are making in homes in Lake Elsinore are
fueling all other areas of the economy from retail to construction to home improvement. The City should
continue to welcome new home buyers and the developers creating product. The City also must balance the
fiscal requirement to provide services to both existing and new home buyers (services that include public safety,
streets/road, parks/recreation and other services). At no time should existing residents be burdened with paying
additional costs or see a reduction of services to welcome new residents to the community. In every sense
residents, business and developers must pay their own way for a community to balanced and successful.
That said, the community has both legal and moral purposes behind insuring the availability of safe and sanitary
housing for families of all sizes and income levels. Using this thought in combination with the established facts
that Lake Elsinore is an older community with some portions that are aging and the understanding that 40% of
families have incomes of less than $50,000 per year, there is an opportunity to consider. The City Council and
staff should aggressively seek funding opportunities through the State of California Department of Housing and
Community Development and the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development to fund
programs targeting the rehabilitation of low-moderate income owner occupied homes. These types of programs
have worked successfully in other communities to bring new investment and housing condition stability to older
neighborhoods. Consider that $1,000,000 of resources can successfully rehabilitate 30-35 homes. Further, if
done under a no-interest deferred program (whereby the principle amount is repaid at the time a home is sold or
refinanced), the fund would revolve thus generating the ability to reuse the money to renovate additional homes.
Over a ten-year period, a program like this would cause 300-350 homes to be rehabilitated. It is noted that this
type of program was routinely funded in many communities through Redevelopment. When the State of
California raided some $7 billion annually of local redevelopment funds from communities across the state,
these types of programs disappeared almost overnight.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 59
20. “Advantage Lake Elsinore” (Permitting/Processing)
Given the state of municipal finance in Lake Elsinore and most communities across the State of California, what
is the strategic or economic advantage that will propel the community economically? Simply stated,
communities that embrace advantage fundamentals (as shown below) will gain significantly more economic
investment than those that do not. How many of us have experienced a situation whereby we called a company
to do business and not gotten a call back? Received poor customer service? Spoke with people without
sufficient technical/product knowledge? Found that the product was not priced appropriately? Or that the
product/service did not perform as advertised/promised? Cities face the same issues. For economic
development purposes, a City is a product (and a service). Those that seek economic investment in businesses,
facilities and homes will seek a match with opportunity, leadership, professionalism and accountability. In
short, economic investors will seek the “low hanging fruit”. Lake Elsinore is already beginning to prove that it
is the “low hanging fruit” of the Inland Empire by attracting significant economic investment in recent years.
The following are the ways in which the City must work to continue to receive substantial economic investment
long into the future:
1.Insure front line staff is experienced and trained in communication, listening and guiding residents as
well as both small and larger businesses through the entitlement and permitting process. Often times
small business owners are not experienced and skilled in working with the “bureaucracy”.
2.Offer the use of Entitlement/Permitting Ombudsperson for larger or more complex projects. Certainly
this can be labor intensive and expensive but for projects that have substantial return in terms of either
job creation or new tax revenue, this process gets those projects online faster. The role of an economic
development ombudsperson is to serve as both a sales person and project expeditor on behalf of the
community.
3.Multiple-Option Permitting (Plan-Checking), most cities only have one or two options for plan-check.
Smaller projects are planned checked in-house while larger ones are outsourced to one (1) specific
company. The City would be more competitive in attracting economic investment by having multiple
plan check options (a half-dozen or more) for which bid on speed/cost certainty. Evaluate implementing
a Fixed Cost for Plan Check to prevent plan check consultants from aggressive billing practices.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 60
4.Pro-Active Project Status Communication, communities that use pro-active communication will have a
substantial advantage over others. This is to simply be the concept of calling/communicating with the
developers/businesses seeking entitlements/permits on an ongoing basis and not waiting for them to call
to check on a project.
5.Simplified Fee System or Input Driven System for Economic Investors to be able to easily calculate
their fees.
6.Economic Impact Analysis (Budget Projections), in recent years has been a valued tool for communities
to better understand the potential job/tax revenue generation of specific projects. Done independent of
the project proponent, it provides a tool for use by the City Council and the finance department. EIA’s
are also beneficial as part of a statement of overriding consideration under CEQA (California
Environmental Quality Act).
7.Provide contractual timeline agreement/contract for project consideration. When economic investors
know what is to be expected of them and it is provided in writing, it provides a better road map. Said
agreements show not only what the City is responsible for but what the developer is responsible for.
This contractual road map means that at all times, a status of ever pending project should be known by
exactly where they are in the process.
8.Recruitment/Fast-Track Vendor Program (allowance for temp facilities): allows new concessionaires to
expand into Lake Elsinore offering products/services supporting “Lake” tourism to establish temporary
facilities with time certainty to test their acceptance in the marketplace before making full financial
commitments. This can be accomplished with Temporary Use Permits (TUP’s).
9.Training Courses/Education for City Commissioners (all commissions) for a unified vision for City-long
term: City Commissioners have expressed desire for additional training to better understand their
responsibilities, scope of their authority and to participate implementing a unified vision for the
community. This can also be accomplished by having joint meetings of the commission(s) and City
Council.
10.360 Accountability provides the ability for the community (residents), business owners, staff, city
attorney, commissioners, and city council to hold each other accountable for timelines, work product
and performance.
11.Economic Development Training, implement a 2-3-hour economic development training/workshop class
that is certificated by the City Council that is available to civic leaders, staff, members of the business
community, teachers, age appropriate students and community members (residents).
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 61
21. Legislative Changes to propel economic advancement should include:
1. Determination of pooling ability or similar for the insurance of extreme sports
2. How can the City take a more proactive step in the regulation of restaurants and food service? Lake
Elsinore currently sits between two (2) County Health offices and there is a concern that the customer
service and interpretation of county health laws are not equally enforced. Does the City have the ability
to take over said responsibilities from the County?
3. How can the City assist with the permitting of additional food service options at Storm Stadium so that
fans/attendees can enjoy the same food options that other stadiums provide (BBQ’s on concourse for
example)
4. Proactively assist and pressure State Lawmakers to change sales tax allocation for online purchases from
Point of Sale to Point of Delivery, or similarly change the law to a straight population allocation of sales
and use tax for online purchases statewide.
5. Work closely with EVMWD to provide greater certainty/affordability of fees, project requirements and
turn-around time for plans and permits.
6. Work with State and Federal Regulatory Agencies to create greater certainty of rules and permitting for
“Lake” properties including defining shoreline development rules and advance habitat mapping.
22. Communication Plan
The implementation of an economic development strategic plan will rely heavily on a communications plan.
Economic Development success is based on continuity of leadership, certainty of process, economic
opportunity and relationships. In its purest form a communication plan is the community sales and marketing
plan to attract economic investment to the community. To build the overall economy of Lake Elsinore, many of
the following should be considered for implementation.
1.Social Media used for employment recruitment: employers of today are making greater use of social
media than ever before (remember the days of the want ads?) Lake Elsinore should work with an
appropriate technology vendor that helps identify opportunities (in living wage paying fields) in Lake
Elsinore and surrounding areas as a means of helping Lake Elsinore residents work closer to home.
2. Shop Local Campaign, anytime community members can purchase locally, they should. It not only
provides additional resources to the very community for which they live, but it shortens their commute
providing more time with their friends and family.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 62
3. Use of Business Wire (a Berkshire Hathaway owned Company) for communicating with the media (both
mass and specialized). The reality is that media of all types is in constant inexpensive need of content for
which to use with their advertising. This type of “Public Relations” allows Lake Elsinore to generate
their own message for distribution. Communicating through Business Wire to media outlets in the
hundreds can be targeted by region or media type and is fairly inexpensive (and certainly more cost
effective than traditional media advertising).
4. General Social Media originating from the Chamber of Commerce, City of Lake Elsinore, events held
with the community or community based groups and organizations. #LakeElsinore #DreamExtreme
#ActionSports CapitaloftheWorld
5. Citywide Wi-Fi to support Downtown and events
6. Use of electronic communication to commercial building owners, brokers, developers so that economic
opportunity and information resources (such as updated market information) are available for their use
with business creation/retention. DMG, Inc. will be developing a full communication plan that is
targeted to retailers, land owners, commercial building owners, industrial brokers, office brokers, retail
brokers and developers that have been active in the region.
7. Community mounted webcams feed to not only city site but Facebook, and other sites including the
Storm, MAVTV, anyone operating in City (softball, volleyball, all private facilities that desire under
small agreement license)
8. Development/Maintenance of both resident application “App” and visitor application “App”. Resident
application is focused on both providing city/municipal information to users and welcoming feedback,
such as code enforcement or residential building inspections (patio covers and the like) while a visitor
application provides resources regarding special events (baseball games, Lucas Oil Off-Road Series),
hotels, restaurants, gas stations and the like.
9. New Homeowner Welcome Package in concert with private companies that often offer such as a means
of advertising local businesses, use this to make sure new homeowners become more involved/connected
with the community by providing school, park and recreational information as well as ways new
homeowners can be involved. At a time, like now, when the City is growing, the City may desire to offer
a quarterly reception at the Cultural Center to welcome new families and give them an opportunity to
meet the City Council, school district, clergy and community leaders. Working with the Lake Elsinore
Storm or similar, the events may feature a Professional Baseball Player to help draw children and
families to a sense of civic pride and engagement.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 63
10. Commercial Real Estate Professional FAM Trip, the City of Lake Elsinore should conduct one real
estate professional (broker/developer) tour/experience days each year that brings regional
brokers/developers to the City for a 1-2 hour tour of the community including residential areas,
commercial corridors and quality of life components (parks) and a 1-hour lunch that is hosted by the
City/area businesses and provides additional information on recent economic successes along with a
candid question and answer session.
23. Financing/How to Pay
Unfortunately, the resources for which to accomplish community and economic development (including
infrastructure development) are at their lowest in generations. Starting in 1978 and continuing through 2011
(and current) the resources to cities have steadily declined. In 1978, the voters of California voted to limited
base level property tax to a flat 1% of assessed valuation. Following in the 1990’s and early 2000’s, the State of
California enacted what is known as the Education Revenue Augmentation Fund (ERAF) which further eroded
property tax allocations to communities. What most voters do not know is that cities receive a very small
percentage of property tax. The City of Lake Elsinore receives an average of about 11% of property taxes
generated within the City (the amount ranges by Tax Rate Area or TRA from between 4.4% to 12.5%). This
means a $250,000 home with an annual tax bill of $2,500 contributes approximately $275.00 per year toward
ALL city services expected to be delivered by a city (police, fire, public works, streets, lighting, parks and
recreation and other general services). In 2011, the State Legislature passed ABx126 and AB 1484 that
abolished redevelopment in California and reallocated said funding to the State Government for redistribution.
This removed some $7 billion annually from local city and county budgets. This was money used for
infrastructure development, addressing the housing and housing rehabilitation needs for families of low to
moderate income and funding economic development/investment initiatives. It is the opinion of DMG, Inc. that
without a structural change in how cities (and counties) are funded, that dozens of communities across
California will soon meet the same fate as Stockton, Desert Hot Springs and San Bernardino in filing for
municipal bankruptcy.
Future economic development will largely be a function of private investment. The role of local government
and community efforts in this arena will need to be focused on leadership continuity, a technically trained staff
and extraordinary customer service to provide a competitive advantage and existing/new relationships with
economic investors that result in job and tax revenue producing growth.
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 64
Below are the financing mechanisms that still exist and are readily available:
*Tax Exempt Industrial Development Bonds
*Business Improvement District(s)
*Tax Oriented (example Transient Occupancy Tax) Business Improvement Districts (Hospitality/Tourism)
*Enhanced Infrastructure Financing District
*General Obligation Bonds/Revenue Bonds
*Locally Enacted Development Fee(s) for Low-Moderate Income Housing (New/Rehabilitation)
*Development Agreements with Private Developers
*State Housing and Community Development (HCD) HOME Funds
*Federal Community Development Block Grants
*Federal Housing and Urban Development Funds
*Federal Department of Commerce Economic Development Administration Funds
*Sale/Lease Naming/Sponsorship Rights to Local Facilities and Services
*Franchise Fees
*Concession Agreements
*Land Lease/Recreation Facility Leases
* Campground Revenue
* Private Investment
24. Factors in Success of Economic Development
Note that the success of this (or any other) economic development strategy will be dependent upon a number of
variables including:
1. State of the Overall Economy
2. Recognition, Understanding and Ownership of the Strategy by Community Members and Civic Leaders
3. Involvement of Community Members and Civic Leaders
4. Engagement and Active Participation of Business, Social and Religious Organizations within the Community
5. Involvement of Outside Agencies and Organizations (Governmental, Business and Social)
6. Business Community Members (both Local and those with Local Presence)
7. Funding (Private Investment, Local/State/Federal Government Assistance), Charitable Entities/Organizations
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 65
25. Measuring Economic Success
Economic Development programs must have mechanisms for which to measure success. For Lake Elsinore
there are two main ways to calculate success.
Direct Investment
The City of Lake Elsinore, through their economist can calculate the potential or actual economic impact of
almost any project or business investment made. These calculations can be made for one-time or ongoing
economic impact (construction or operational) and employment/job impacts (direct, indirect and induced).
Calculations can also be made in regards to local governmental revenues to support local services. Over a
moderate period (an example being three years) a community can calculate direct economic growth and divide
it by the resources provided to assist with said growth to determine a return on investment.
Long-Term Economic Condition Improvements
Using the exhibits presented (over 40 charts) as a baseline, the City can generate a comparative analysis every
three (3) to five (5) years to see how the community has made statistical or comparative improvements. Using
this also provides community leaders (representing the city, school, water/wastewater district, private business
owners/operators) a matrix understanding of what efforts are most successful and where additional focus/efforts
must be made.
Local communities deserve to have a transparent methodology for which to calculate the return on investment
of an economic development program. As stated previously, economic development is basically defined as any
activity that raises the overall wealth of a community. To determine the success, the following baselines will be
established and re-measured periodically to determine the delta (or change). The total change in benchmarks
(in total or in combination) divided by the financial resources placed into an economic development program
provides the Return on Investment or ROI. This ROI can be calculated in both one-time (fee revenue) and on-
going (tax revenue and job counts/spendable income).
1. Total Taxable Sales (Sales Tax Received by City)
2. Total Transient Occupancy Tax (Hotel Taxes Received by City)
3. Total Property Tax Received by City
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 66
4. Total Number of Local Jobs (within the Community)
7. Total Number of Building Permits and Associated Fees
8. Total Number of Entitlement Applications and Associated Fees
9. Total Number of Vehicles Using Off-Ramps within Community
10. Reduced Commute Times for Residents
11. Higher Educational Achievement
12. Lower Rates of Poverty/Persons Without Health Insurance
13. Higher Household Median Income
26. Next Step: Implementation Plan
This Economic Development Strategic Plan outlines a holistic approach to developing a vibrant economy for
the residents of Lake Elsinore that will generate new investment, job creation and resources for which the City
can deliver goods and services to the community. As this plan has been vetted and brought before the City
Council to consider adoption, DMG, Inc. will work on a quarterly implementation plan that takes into account
the highest priorities. Many of the individual steps for implementation have been described within the structure
of this document and are easily converted into the specific actions that need to be taken.
27. Certification Statement by Development Management Group, Inc.
I certify that my engagement to prepare this report was not contingent upon developing or reporting
predetermined results. The statements of fact contained herein and the substance of this report are based on
public records, data provided by the City of Lake Elsinore and various sources as described in the reference
section of this report. This report reflects my personal, unbiased professional analyses, opinions and
conclusions. If any of the underlying assumptions related to this report change after the date of this report
(September 13, 2016), then the undersigned reserves the professional privilege to modify the contents and/or
conclusions of this report.
_____________________
Michael J. Bracken, Managing Partner
Development Management Group, Inc.
41-625 Eclectic Street, Suite D-2
Palm Desert, CA 92260
(760) 346-8820 * (760) 346-8887 (fax) * (760) 272-9136 (mobile)
Michael@dmgeconomics.com * www.dmgeconomics.com
City of Lake Elsinore Economic Development Strategic Plan 2016-2021 9/13/16 FINAL Page 67
Appendix A
List of Persons that Participated in Creation of Strategic Plan (Individual Interviews or Focus Groups)
Mayor Brian Tisdale
Mayor Pro Tem Robert Magee
Councilmember Steve Manos
Councilmember Natasha Johnson
Councilmember Daryl Hickman
Planning Commissioner Adam Armit
Planning Commissioner Shelly Jordan
Planning Commissioner John Gray
Planning Commissioner Myles Ross
Planning Commissioner Michael Carroll
Grant Yates, City Manager
Jason Simpson, Assistant City Manager
Grant Taylor, Community Development Director
Jonathan Skinner, Director of Community Services
(Recreation)
Nicole Dailey, Senior Management Analyst
Cathy Barrozo, Economic Development/GIS Specialist
Kimberly Ryan, Tulips, Trophies & Treasurers
Donna Niehouse, Pints & Quarts Gastro Pub
Keith Eredia, Lowe’s Home Improvement
Mike Norkin, Subs N’ Cup
Jeff Kirtz, Promenade Temecula
Charlene Lewis, SoCAl/AZ Hydro Sports Centers
Justin Jones, Lake Elsinore Casino & Econo Lodge
Dave Oster, Storm Baseball
Raj Narayanan, Storm Baseball
Rene Rolander, Pins ‘N Pockets
William Johnson, Williams Bait, Tackle & Boat Rentals
Ken Johnson, Lucas Oil
Alex Braicovich, CR&R
Rita Johnson, Tarbell Realtors
Carol Rounsley, Tarbell Realtors
Chris Johnson, Reid & Hellyer
Jack Ferguson, CPA
Donald Murray, Commerce Bank
Mario Reyes, Community Little Book
Brad Neet, Southwest Healthcare System
Shane Levosky, TVC, Inc.
Wendy Levosky, TVC, Inc.
Kathy Lohman, Aloha Leisure
Brian Milich, DMB Pacific Ventures
Ed Fitzpatrick, Shopoff Group
Ed Sauls, The Sauls Company
Garret Sauls, The Sauls Company
Eric Werner, Werner Corporatoin
Gary Washburn, West County Investments
George Bloomfield, The Bloomfield Group
Greg Lukosky, Pennisula Retail Partners
Jeff Chambers, Pardee Homes
Ahmad Khan, BergerABAM
Bill Lund, BergerABAM
Steve Rawlings, Rawlings Company
Steven Semingson, Civic Partners
Tina Alexander, Civic Partners
Tom Tomlinson, Castle & Cooke
David Crowder, DMB Pacific Ventures
Ara Berberyan, Pantera Real Estate, Inc.
Additional Sources of Information (Community Meetings):
City Council Strategic Planning (2/11/16)
Strategic Planning City Council Sub-Committee December 23, 2015 (Mayor/Mayor Pro Tem)